5 ms·

Simulating an epidemic [video]

74 points by karimf 7y ago

wolfram74 7y ago
The kind of mass testing and case tracking that's most effective is a considerable (hopefully temporary) sacrifice to privacy rights, compared to the sacrifice of movement rights necessary for social distancing. The modeling is fairly clear that the tracking is a more effective public health measure than the distancing, and the general public don't get as riled up about erosions to privacy rights as other "realer" ones. It'll be interesting to see what happens. In the mean time we'll continue to have ineffective measures because I think a lot of meat space businesses will have a kind of prisoner's dilemma going on. If every company voluntarily isolates, the pandemic damage is minimized, but the larger the percent of a given industry that isolates, the larger market share is left for any company/individual that operates business as usual.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  > The kind of mass testing and case tracking that's most effective is a considerable (hopefully temporary) sacrifice to privacy rights I mean, it doesn't really have to be. It's really no secret when you have complications from this disease. Cautious quarantine is probably the reasonable procedure for those who refuse to be tested or share their results. It isn't a broad invasion of privacy, but a specific request for information. > If every company voluntarily isolates, the pandemic damage is minimized, but the larger the percent of a given industry that isolates, the larger market share is left for any company/individual that operates business as usual. I don't think it's that simple. The damage of the disease may be minimized by that approach, for as long as you can sustain it (you can't forever), but the overall damage, or even the mortality, isn't necessarily limited most effectively by non-essential businesses remaining closed until we have a vaccine or a very effective treatment.
chestervonwinch 7y ago
I’m curious: Are these types of simulations (not these specifically, but those run by trained epidemiologists) used to inform decisions at all? Can the parameters of more refined simulations be optimized to minimize cumulative fatalities, for example?
- diroussel 7y ago
  Yes they are. These types of models have been studied for decades. For instance the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak in the UK, models were used : https://www.ft.com/content/7e56cf84-6a9e-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/7e56cf84-6a9e-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc... Or if that link doesn't work: https://www.google.com/?q=FT+Neil+Ferguson+a+virus+modeller+sounds+the+alarm https://www.google.com/?q=FT+Neil+Ferguson+a+virus+modeller+... The article talks about the modeller Neil Fergusson, and in my next link it talks about how he has advised the UK government: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/top-government-adviser-self-isolates-developing-coronavirus/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
  - acqq 7y ago
    The analysis that is claimed (1) to have affected the change in the Covid-19 policy of the British government: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... is by Neil M Ferguson et al. 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand" In my opinion, the experts were aware of the problems in approach of many governments, but the governments managed to do what they wanted (pretend nothing is happening) for too long. Also in my opinion, the smaller players believed too much to the most influential one, which has a specific history of bluffing. That even works in social contexts, but, in the words of Richard Feynman eventually: "reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." 1) E.g. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-p...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- madhadron 7y ago
  Yes. Basically everything you hear about like flattening the curve, social distancing, all of it is informed by variations on the classic SIR model of epidemic propagation. The modelling most often goes wrong either when people do something bizarrely stupid that the modellers didn't think of, like farmers in the UK foot and mouth disease epidemic moving animals at night to farms that had been declared clean in order to avoid having them destroyed, or lack of good numbers to go into the model in the absence of adequate testing.
jungletime 7y ago
I don't see how this accounts for dots not becoming infectious after a set time. If someone sits at home for two (max 4 weeks ) they're not infectious, even if they had the disease. Does the simulation account for this? This should put a damping effect to the spread.
- madhadron 7y ago
  That's what the "recovered" block is. However they have to actually be infected to join that block.

74 points by karimf 7y ago

The kind of mass testing and case tracking that's most effective is a considerable (hopefully temporary) sacrifice to privacy rights, compared to the sacrifice of movement rights necessary for social distancing. The modeling is fairly clear that the tracking is a more effective public health measure than the distancing, and the general public don't get as riled up about erosions to privacy rights as other "realer" ones. It'll be interesting to see what happens. In the mean time we'll continue to have ineffective measures because I think a lot of meat space businesses will have a kind of prisoner's dilemma going on. If every company voluntarily isolates, the pandemic damage is minimized, but the larger the percent of a given industry that isolates, the larger market share is left for any company/individual that operates business as usual.

microcolonel 7y ago
> The kind of mass testing and case tracking that's most effective is a considerable (hopefully temporary) sacrifice to privacy rights I mean, it doesn't really have to be. It's really no secret when you have complications from this disease. Cautious quarantine is probably the reasonable procedure for those who refuse to be tested or share their results. It isn't a broad invasion of privacy, but a specific request for information. > If every company voluntarily isolates, the pandemic damage is minimized, but the larger the percent of a given industry that isolates, the larger market share is left for any company/individual that operates business as usual. I don't think it's that simple. The damage of the disease may be minimized by that approach, for as long as you can sustain it (you can't forever), but the overall damage, or even the mortality, isn't necessarily limited most effectively by non-essential businesses remaining closed until we have a vaccine or a very effective treatment.

chestervonwinch 7y ago

I’m curious: Are these types of simulations (not these specifically, but those run by trained epidemiologists) used to inform decisions at all? Can the parameters of more refined simulations be optimized to minimize cumulative fatalities, for example?

diroussel 7y ago
Yes they are. These types of models have been studied for decades. For instance the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak in the UK, models were used : https://www.ft.com/content/7e56cf84-6a9e-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/7e56cf84-6a9e-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc... Or if that link doesn't work: https://www.google.com/?q=FT+Neil+Ferguson+a+virus+modeller+sounds+the+alarm https://www.google.com/?q=FT+Neil+Ferguson+a+virus+modeller+... The article talks about the modeller Neil Fergusson, and in my next link it talks about how he has advised the UK government: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/top-government-adviser-self-isolates-developing-coronavirus/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
- acqq 7y ago
  The analysis that is claimed (1) to have affected the change in the Covid-19 policy of the British government: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... is by Neil M Ferguson et al. 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand" In my opinion, the experts were aware of the problems in approach of many governments, but the governments managed to do what they wanted (pretend nothing is happening) for too long. Also in my opinion, the smaller players believed too much to the most influential one, which has a specific history of bluffing. That even works in social contexts, but, in the words of Richard Feynman eventually: "reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." 1) E.g. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-p...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
madhadron 7y ago
Yes. Basically everything you hear about like flattening the curve, social distancing, all of it is informed by variations on the classic SIR model of epidemic propagation. The modelling most often goes wrong either when people do something bizarrely stupid that the modellers didn't think of, like farmers in the UK foot and mouth disease epidemic moving animals at night to farms that had been declared clean in order to avoid having them destroyed, or lack of good numbers to go into the model in the absence of adequate testing.

jungletime 7y ago

I don't see how this accounts for dots not becoming infectious after a set time. If someone sits at home for two (max 4 weeks ) they're not infectious, even if they had the disease. Does the simulation account for this? This should put a damping effect to the spread.

madhadron 7y ago
That's what the "recovered" block is. However they have to actually be infected to join that block.