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I've seen very little coverage that really uses the term exponential in a way that suggests those reporting know the implications of that. I've seen one plot wi
by dpwm 7y ago
I've seen very little coverage that really uses the term exponential in a way that suggests those reporting know the implications of that. I've seen one plot with a logarithmic y-axis, and that was in the Guardian some time ago. From it, it appeared a crude heuristic could be drawn that from the point that lockdown is implemented, the cumulative deaths appear to grow between two and three orders of magnitude.
I've been grabbing the data put out by Johns Hopkins [0] for the last few days to update some plots in a very hacky Jupyter notebook.
Crucially, the plots are normalized to (estimated) populations and the y-scale is logarithmic. I've put them on github in case anyone else is interested [1].
[0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
[1] https://github.com/dpwm/covid19-analysis/blob/master/Coronavirus%20Deaths.ipynb https://github.com/dpwm/covid19-analysis/blob/master/Coronav...
edit: Clarified that though exponential growth is widely used, the implications of that are not followed up. It's past my bedtime!
- mr_toad 7y agoEven fewer people understand logarithms than exponential growth. If you publish graphs with a log scale you will certainly confuse some people into thinking that the illness is tapering off.
- dboreham 7y agoHmm...I see the term exponential everywhere, but based on comments I read on public Facebook posts, almost nobody in the general public has any clue what it means or implies. But this site is widely referenced. It has a log scale option: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- grandmczeb 7y ago> I've seen one plot with a logarithmic y-axis, and that was in the Guardian some time ago. You mean like the widely cited NYT Coronavirus death tracker[1]? [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/corona...