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>> And people were saying that we will never see a famine in Asia in the 21st century. That optimism was premature... I wonder whether people will decide to ta

>> And people were saying that we will never see a famine in Asia in the 21st century. That optimism was premature... I wonder whether people will decide to take their chances with the coronavirus if faced with famine? Something tells me that people will risk it with the coronavirus rather than die of starvation.

twomoretime 7y ago
At some point enough harvests will be missed because of lockdown that famines become inevitable. The choice to risk it will probably me made too late. Not sure why I'm getting downvoted. Food takes months to grow and needs to be harvested within a short window. By the time people realize there's a famine coming it will be too late. Just look at how we could have prepared in January for this virus if people weren't so shortsighted.
- fock 7y ago
  which country (except China in Hubei) actually locked down agriculture?
  - pacman83 7y ago
    US relies on farm workers from Mexico and is not letting as many in, partly due to suspension of visa operations.
  - jimmySixDOF 7y ago
    Kazakhstan suspends exports of food staples They are the #10 Global Wheat Exporter [1] https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-kazakhstan-suspends-exports-of-food-staples https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-kazakh...
    - fock 7y ago
      they are still producing though?
- alexandercrohde 7y ago
  I'm downvoting this because it's a huge claim without adequate evidence. Feel free to cite some sources showing what % of harvests have been missed, etc, and I'll change my downvote.
  - twomoretime 7y ago
    Migrants can't make it to harvests because countries/states are locked down. Isn't that literally in the article? There won't be any sources for a while because this is literally just starting. I mean 3billion people are on lockdown of some sort globally right now. Not hard to imagine it may be hard for workers to get to farms across borders, or even within borders. CA alone will probably see a shortage of migrants. No, I don't know for sure but I'm speculating that it's quite likely. Supply chains have also been strained because people have been panic buying for what, 3 weeks now? You can't just snap your fingers and double your supply of vegetables.
    - 6510 7y ago
      So, to put it bluntly, people are sitting on ass and their food crops are rotting in the field? Even if you do nothing the market will probably fix it: Less food in the markets > high demand drives up prices > higher salaries > slightly lower prices At some point some people are hungry enough to get a... shall we say... real job? With some regulatory sanity we subsidize it a bit. Perhaps we should test and quarantine the farm workers when money stops being an issue.
      - jmalicki 7y ago
        So in other words, after one famine where a large fraction of the population dies, the market will be better afterwards? Especially with anti-price-gouging laws - this process is explicit forbidden from happening during a crisis.
        6510 7y ago
        nah, the regulators will move in and save us from ourselves.
kspacewalk2 7y ago
In a month or so, once the daily deaths subside, people will risk it with the coronavirus rather than having a recession turn into a depression. This will be the correct choice.
- downrightmike 7y ago
  ennnnnnnnt. That's the buzzer, signaling that this is some bullshit. No one wants to die period. full stop. Greedy to the very end.
  - drstewart 7y ago
    Guess what? Everyone dies. And every day is a choice between things that increase that risk. Saying "no one wants to die, stop being greedy!" as if you can eliminate all deaths through a simple action is a nice low effort slogan that doesn't make any sense in the real world.
    - 6510 7y ago
      I don't know, an all out war on death could potentially work? We won't know until we try? It would have to involve a lot more than "just" living longer. We already have a lot of that effect. So much that migrants have to produce our food. shrug
    - jodrellblank 7y ago
      > Guess what? Everyone dies The unpleasant part is not solely people dying, it's the volunteering of other people dying by people who assume they won't die from it, and not for their own survival but to keep a level of personal comfort and luxury. Assume you are in the group who would die, but economic sacrifice keeps you alive. Now, hands up if you are willing to trade that - to definitely die in April 2020, or suicide today, to prop the world GDP up for a few minutes. What, nobody? Now assume instead that you're definitely in the group who will be unemployed and bankrupted by the economic costs, but you get to survive COVID-19 and do whatever you can to survive after. Hands up if you would prefer this to the guaranteed death situation? What is that, basically everybody with their hands up? If you don't believe in the importance of GDP enough to die for it, only enough to support others dying for it, perhaps you really have different motives to the ones you're saying.

twomoretime 7y ago

At some point enough harvests will be missed because of lockdown that famines become inevitable. The choice to risk it will probably me made too late. Not sure why I'm getting downvoted. Food takes months to grow and needs to be harvested within a short window. By the time people realize there's a famine coming it will be too late. Just look at how we could have prepared in January for this virus if people weren't so shortsighted.

fock 7y ago
which country (except China in Hubei) actually locked down agriculture?
- pacman83 7y ago
  US relies on farm workers from Mexico and is not letting as many in, partly due to suspension of visa operations.
- jimmySixDOF 7y ago
  Kazakhstan suspends exports of food staples They are the #10 Global Wheat Exporter [1] https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-kazakhstan-suspends-exports-of-food-staples https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-kazakh...
  - fock 7y ago
    they are still producing though?
alexandercrohde 7y ago
I'm downvoting this because it's a huge claim without adequate evidence. Feel free to cite some sources showing what % of harvests have been missed, etc, and I'll change my downvote.
- twomoretime 7y ago
  Migrants can't make it to harvests because countries/states are locked down. Isn't that literally in the article? There won't be any sources for a while because this is literally just starting. I mean 3billion people are on lockdown of some sort globally right now. Not hard to imagine it may be hard for workers to get to farms across borders, or even within borders. CA alone will probably see a shortage of migrants. No, I don't know for sure but I'm speculating that it's quite likely. Supply chains have also been strained because people have been panic buying for what, 3 weeks now? You can't just snap your fingers and double your supply of vegetables.
  - 6510 7y ago
    So, to put it bluntly, people are sitting on ass and their food crops are rotting in the field? Even if you do nothing the market will probably fix it: Less food in the markets > high demand drives up prices > higher salaries > slightly lower prices At some point some people are hungry enough to get a... shall we say... real job? With some regulatory sanity we subsidize it a bit. Perhaps we should test and quarantine the farm workers when money stops being an issue.
    - jmalicki 7y ago
      So in other words, after one famine where a large fraction of the population dies, the market will be better afterwards? Especially with anti-price-gouging laws - this process is explicit forbidden from happening during a crisis.
      - 6510 7y ago
        nah, the regulators will move in and save us from ourselves.

kspacewalk2 7y ago

In a month or so, once the daily deaths subside, people will risk it with the coronavirus rather than having a recession turn into a depression. This will be the correct choice.

downrightmike 7y ago
ennnnnnnnt. That's the buzzer, signaling that this is some bullshit. No one wants to die period. full stop. Greedy to the very end.
- drstewart 7y ago
  Guess what? Everyone dies. And every day is a choice between things that increase that risk. Saying "no one wants to die, stop being greedy!" as if you can eliminate all deaths through a simple action is a nice low effort slogan that doesn't make any sense in the real world.
  - 6510 7y ago
    I don't know, an all out war on death could potentially work? We won't know until we try? It would have to involve a lot more than "just" living longer. We already have a lot of that effect. So much that migrants have to produce our food. shrug
  - jodrellblank 7y ago
    > Guess what? Everyone dies The unpleasant part is not solely people dying, it's the volunteering of other people dying by people who assume they won't die from it, and not for their own survival but to keep a level of personal comfort and luxury. Assume you are in the group who would die, but economic sacrifice keeps you alive. Now, hands up if you are willing to trade that - to definitely die in April 2020, or suicide today, to prop the world GDP up for a few minutes. What, nobody? Now assume instead that you're definitely in the group who will be unemployed and bankrupted by the economic costs, but you get to survive COVID-19 and do whatever you can to survive after. Hands up if you would prefer this to the guaranteed death situation? What is that, basically everybody with their hands up? If you don't believe in the importance of GDP enough to die for it, only enough to support others dying for it, perhaps you really have different motives to the ones you're saying.