4 ms·
First of I list what I know: 1) the economy had a very large, in terms of dollars, run up. 2) the fact that it was like 10 years is of little importance to me
by sloaken 7y ago
First of I list what I know:
1) the economy had a very large, in terms of dollars, run up.
2) the fact that it was like 10 years is of little importance to me.
3) the P/E ratios were getting big, not horrible, but bigger than I was comfortable with.
I was having trouble sleeping, because I was worried, and that is a classic sign you are in too deep (for your comfort level). So over the last 3 years I have pulled 90% of my investments into cash.
So what is unknown:
1) when will the virus start leveling off. Although China says theirs is clear, I have a tendency not to trust a country that censors the media?
2) will the virus come back in the fall for a second round?
3) when will the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia end?
4) I do not know where the bottom is.
Back to what I know:
4) I know that others, also, do not know the things I say I do not know.
5) I know the market will come back, it might take a few years.
6) The bottom of the market will be clear after it happens.
7) Those who say it is the bottom now, are just talking, they do not know.
8) Until the virus peaks, it will be very hard to guess the impact. Even then there will be a lot unanticipated problems, that are only obvious in hindsight.
Plan going forward:
In the next few weeks, maybe as early as this Monday, start putting a little money back in the market. My goal is to be fully back in within 6 months, ideally having the low point 1/2 through when I am putting money back in.
- biolurker1 7y agoIn the last 3 years you lost all gains that would make you immune to any recession.
- sloaken 7y agoActually I am about 4% ahead, but next week will change that. It was the lack of sleep that was important. Also I doubt the bottom has been felt yet.