6 ms·

It does not need to be most Americans and a lot of office workers would prefer to be farmers if the wage were correct. We have markets - let the prices rise an

It does not need to be most Americans and a lot of office workers would prefer to be farmers if the wage were correct. We have markets - let the prices rise and we will see more farmers in the future. E; I know it is not your theory Doreen - but it is a popular species of liberal (meaning democrat + republican) political propaganda. Everything Moravec's Paradox ever said, everything Peter Thiel ever said about automation - it's right in front of us now.

cma 7y ago
Thiel also said companies shouldn’t have big cash reserves because it is a sign of running out of ideas.
- banmeagaindan2 7y ago
  Hello Slow Ban my old friend. For growth technology firms that is true - I remember his debate with Eric Schmidt - he was really arguing being a technology firm should be a temporary award contingent on how the firm behaves instead of a title. Technologies mature into infrastructure and stop being thought of as technologies. This is part of his thesis that technology companies should be monopoly companies - and that the regulator should treat companies like Google as monopolies but the companies producing new value should be classified as different and given a honeymoon period. His pointing at a technology rust belt is evocative evidence for the position.
  - cma 7y ago
    It could be hard for Google to weather a downturn without cash reserves. Ad revenue could dry up substantially.
    - dodobirdlord 7y ago
      It would have to be quite a downturn to be a real threat. They would have to have revenue drop by more than their large profit margin and their access to debt markets.
    - banmeagaindan2 7y ago
      I'm not saying they should not - I'm saying they have been slowly becoming infrastructure and a regulator should delay antitrust if they are building up more infrastructure for future technology - Rodney Brooks has been saying there needs to be improvements in the road networks for self driving to be sped up. Ctrl-F "raised pavement markers" http://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/ http://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/ I don't know if I'm right about those - but I am saying the technology giants are not putting their money where their mouth is.
dragonwriter 7y ago
> It does not need to be most Americans and a lot of office workers would prefer to be farmers if the wage were correct. Most everyone would prefer to be farmers (= farm owners = capitalist of at least the petit bourgeoisie, if not actually the haut bourgeoisie) instead of wage laborers. But, no, I don't think that many office workers would prefer to be manual laborers, whether farm laborers or otherwise. Sure, with enough of a wage premium they might be lured away. But there are limits to the ability to pay higher real wages to farm labor, because food cost is a major basic expense to start with so higher nominal wages for farm labor necessarily (because while there is lots of aggregate profit in food, there's not lots of proportion of profit, which is where the room for absorbing wage increases without price impact comes from) means higher price index, which reduces real wages for everyone, including the farm laborers.
- DoreenMichele 7y ago
  Some people do white collar work because they aren't physically capable of doing hard physical labor. That includes me. One thing missing from a lot of conversations is the detail that modern medicine is good at keeping you alive after a serious medical crisis. It's not so talented at restoring you to full function. The result is a lot of disabled people and that fact rarely enters the conversation about labor trends. I suspect another element is that we have more pollution and what not impairing the functioning of pretty much everyone, but saying that risks being accused of being a conspiracy theory nutter. But it's been on my mind a lot here lately because pollution is down across the globe, traffic is down in my small town and my energy is -- "coincidentally" -- up and I'm getting more done than usual here lately, in spite of my underlying condition being an incurable genetic disorder.
- banmeagaindan2 7y ago
  I don't claim I know what to do - but I don't like us jumping straight to the answer that this would not work - it is like the meme "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas". This is where an imaginative government or community runs experiments - there are people like Elon Musk's brother - have they not been thinking about this? If we have a large number of people turning their hand to something new - the solution space will open up and we might see new business models in production and distribution. The political is part of this - there are now large numbers of angry young people wearing masks in the cities.
Mirioron 7y ago
I don't think most would prefer to be farmers. Farm labor is one of the most dangerous occupations in the US: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/the-10-most-dangerous-jobs-in-america-according-to-bls-data.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/the-10-most-dangerous-jobs-i...
- banmeagaindan2 7y ago
  Being a solider is dangerous. Being a nurse is dangerous. The real problem isn't just wages - it is also that our society decided some jobs are for people not bright enough to get into university so stigma hollowed the pride of the working class and that is what really cheapened and demoralized their labour. Mike Rowe nailed it.

cma 7y ago

Thiel also said companies shouldn’t have big cash reserves because it is a sign of running out of ideas.

banmeagaindan2 7y ago
Hello Slow Ban my old friend. For growth technology firms that is true - I remember his debate with Eric Schmidt - he was really arguing being a technology firm should be a temporary award contingent on how the firm behaves instead of a title. Technologies mature into infrastructure and stop being thought of as technologies. This is part of his thesis that technology companies should be monopoly companies - and that the regulator should treat companies like Google as monopolies but the companies producing new value should be classified as different and given a honeymoon period. His pointing at a technology rust belt is evocative evidence for the position.
- cma 7y ago
  It could be hard for Google to weather a downturn without cash reserves. Ad revenue could dry up substantially.
  - dodobirdlord 7y ago
    It would have to be quite a downturn to be a real threat. They would have to have revenue drop by more than their large profit margin and their access to debt markets.
  - banmeagaindan2 7y ago
    I'm not saying they should not - I'm saying they have been slowly becoming infrastructure and a regulator should delay antitrust if they are building up more infrastructure for future technology - Rodney Brooks has been saying there needs to be improvements in the road networks for self driving to be sped up. Ctrl-F "raised pavement markers" http://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/ http://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/ I don't know if I'm right about those - but I am saying the technology giants are not putting their money where their mouth is.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> It does not need to be most Americans and a lot of office workers would prefer to be farmers if the wage were correct. Most everyone would prefer to be farmers (= farm owners = capitalist of at least the petit bourgeoisie, if not actually the haut bourgeoisie) instead of wage laborers. But, no, I don't think that many office workers would prefer to be manual laborers, whether farm laborers or otherwise. Sure, with enough of a wage premium they might be lured away. But there are limits to the ability to pay higher real wages to farm labor, because food cost is a major basic expense to start with so higher nominal wages for farm labor necessarily (because while there is lots of aggregate profit in food, there's not lots of proportion of profit, which is where the room for absorbing wage increases without price impact comes from) means higher price index, which reduces real wages for everyone, including the farm laborers.

DoreenMichele 7y ago
Some people do white collar work because they aren't physically capable of doing hard physical labor. That includes me. One thing missing from a lot of conversations is the detail that modern medicine is good at keeping you alive after a serious medical crisis. It's not so talented at restoring you to full function. The result is a lot of disabled people and that fact rarely enters the conversation about labor trends. I suspect another element is that we have more pollution and what not impairing the functioning of pretty much everyone, but saying that risks being accused of being a conspiracy theory nutter. But it's been on my mind a lot here lately because pollution is down across the globe, traffic is down in my small town and my energy is -- "coincidentally" -- up and I'm getting more done than usual here lately, in spite of my underlying condition being an incurable genetic disorder.
banmeagaindan2 7y ago
I don't claim I know what to do - but I don't like us jumping straight to the answer that this would not work - it is like the meme "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas". This is where an imaginative government or community runs experiments - there are people like Elon Musk's brother - have they not been thinking about this? If we have a large number of people turning their hand to something new - the solution space will open up and we might see new business models in production and distribution. The political is part of this - there are now large numbers of angry young people wearing masks in the cities.

Mirioron 7y ago

I don't think most would prefer to be farmers. Farm labor is one of the most dangerous occupations in the US: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/the-10-most-dangerous-jobs-in-america-according-to-bls-data.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/the-10-most-dangerous-jobs-i...

banmeagaindan2 7y ago
Being a solider is dangerous. Being a nurse is dangerous. The real problem isn't just wages - it is also that our society decided some jobs are for people not bright enough to get into university so stigma hollowed the pride of the working class and that is what really cheapened and demoralized their labour. Mike Rowe nailed it.