6 ms·

People were flying less and cancelling flights far before the govt mandated lockdowns

by mvid 7y ago

nickff 7y ago
But it was exogenous to the airlines, unlike the financial crisis, which was caused by malinvestment (by the banks themselves,) among other things.
- mnm1 7y ago
  The airline companies are the major spreaders of c19. While unintentional, this is a fact as is their ability to have put in some safeguards to slow down prevention like forcing sick people to wear masks and gloves (and ideally to fly on separate planes when possible) and disinfecting their planes after each flight. In this case, they directly caused a huge part of this crisis, much more so than in 2008. Also, airlines that have done stock buybacks should never be bailed out. They knowingly put themselves into a poor situation that should bankrupt them. In all of these cases, the airlines themselves are culpable and don't deserve any bailouts.
  - dageshi 7y ago
    Well when you put it like that, WE that is to say the public are really directly responsible for the spread of the virus, by travelling when sick. People are not responsible, the government who could've mandated such measures aren't responsible but the airlines are?
    - mnm1 7y ago
      The government is definitely responsible. They fucked up testing. They fucked up contact tracing. They fucked up stocking for supplies. They fucked up handling travelers and quarantining them. They are still lying to people about the effectiveness of masks. They called it a hoax and pretended it wasn't happening. In fact, I can't think of a single thing the US government didn't fuck up. Most other governments were not much better. But I understand you want to blame the people, most of whom were asymptomatic, for spreading a disease they didn't know about that, at least in the US, was called a hoax, that the Chinese arrested people for talking about. Yes, it's their fault not the fault of the government that is supposed to prepare and handle such issues. Absurd. And yes, the airlines played their part in it too, not disinfecting, not requiring masks, not caring a single bit about the safety of their passengers. Now they want a bailout because they couldn't manage their cash properly and decided to increase their stock price with stock buybacks instead of saving cash for a rainy day like this one. Absurd.
- mrgordon 7y ago
  The airlines also invested poorly this time around though. They spent all their money on dividends and buybacks instead of saving for a downtown. American Airlines, which was the worst balance sheet, famously declared they were doing so well that the airline industry wouldn’t hit a catastrophe again! “American Airlines has been rather irresponsible with its capital allocation in recent years. As shown in the tables above, it spent the highest proportion of its operating cash flow (52%) on dividends and buybacks, despite also spending more on capex than any of its peers.” “American paid for most of this capex by issuing debt and entering sale-leaseback transactions. Meanwhile, it returned a little more than half of its operating cash flow to shareholders over this period, mainly through buybacks.” https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-waste-cash-flow-share-buybacks.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-... This article tries to make the point that not all airlines were equally bad but let’s face it American was the first one to need a bailout and they definitely squandered their financial position.
  - erjiang 7y ago
    Let's say that AA didn't do any buybacks - instead they saved up all of the money that they would have spent on buy backs in the last few years. Would that have been enough to survive this pandemic?
    - mrgordon 7y ago
      Yes, likely. In 2015 and 2016 alone they paid $8.346 billion in buybacks and they seem to pay roughly a $0.40 dividend every year. Either way it would have allowed them to borrow less money at much better terms. Instead they are totally insolvent immediately and people have a more negative view of bailing them out because they appear irresponsible.
- zeckalpha 7y ago
  Airlines could have limited the spread.

People were flying less and cancelling flights far before the govt mandated lockdowns

by mvid 7y ago

People were flying less and cancelling flights far before the govt mandated lockdowns

But it was exogenous to the airlines, unlike the financial crisis, which was caused by malinvestment (by the banks themselves,) among other things.

mnm1 7y ago
The airline companies are the major spreaders of c19. While unintentional, this is a fact as is their ability to have put in some safeguards to slow down prevention like forcing sick people to wear masks and gloves (and ideally to fly on separate planes when possible) and disinfecting their planes after each flight. In this case, they directly caused a huge part of this crisis, much more so than in 2008. Also, airlines that have done stock buybacks should never be bailed out. They knowingly put themselves into a poor situation that should bankrupt them. In all of these cases, the airlines themselves are culpable and don't deserve any bailouts.
- dageshi 7y ago
  Well when you put it like that, WE that is to say the public are really directly responsible for the spread of the virus, by travelling when sick. People are not responsible, the government who could've mandated such measures aren't responsible but the airlines are?
  - mnm1 7y ago
    The government is definitely responsible. They fucked up testing. They fucked up contact tracing. They fucked up stocking for supplies. They fucked up handling travelers and quarantining them. They are still lying to people about the effectiveness of masks. They called it a hoax and pretended it wasn't happening. In fact, I can't think of a single thing the US government didn't fuck up. Most other governments were not much better. But I understand you want to blame the people, most of whom were asymptomatic, for spreading a disease they didn't know about that, at least in the US, was called a hoax, that the Chinese arrested people for talking about. Yes, it's their fault not the fault of the government that is supposed to prepare and handle such issues. Absurd. And yes, the airlines played their part in it too, not disinfecting, not requiring masks, not caring a single bit about the safety of their passengers. Now they want a bailout because they couldn't manage their cash properly and decided to increase their stock price with stock buybacks instead of saving cash for a rainy day like this one. Absurd.
mrgordon 7y ago
The airlines also invested poorly this time around though. They spent all their money on dividends and buybacks instead of saving for a downtown. American Airlines, which was the worst balance sheet, famously declared they were doing so well that the airline industry wouldn’t hit a catastrophe again! “American Airlines has been rather irresponsible with its capital allocation in recent years. As shown in the tables above, it spent the highest proportion of its operating cash flow (52%) on dividends and buybacks, despite also spending more on capex than any of its peers.” “American paid for most of this capex by issuing debt and entering sale-leaseback transactions. Meanwhile, it returned a little more than half of its operating cash flow to shareholders over this period, mainly through buybacks.” https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-waste-cash-flow-share-buybacks.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-... This article tries to make the point that not all airlines were equally bad but let’s face it American was the first one to need a bailout and they definitely squandered their financial position.
- erjiang 7y ago
  Let's say that AA didn't do any buybacks - instead they saved up all of the money that they would have spent on buy backs in the last few years. Would that have been enough to survive this pandemic?
  - mrgordon 7y ago
    Yes, likely. In 2015 and 2016 alone they paid $8.346 billion in buybacks and they seem to pay roughly a $0.40 dividend every year. Either way it would have allowed them to borrow less money at much better terms. Instead they are totally insolvent immediately and people have a more negative view of bailing them out because they appear irresponsible.
zeckalpha 7y ago
Airlines could have limited the spread.