3 ms·

I know nothing about the biology, but I don't think the fact that a fraudulent company failed at a very difficult scientific problem is much evidence.

mbreese 7y ago
The fundamental problem Theranos failed at overcoming was that you can’t accurately measure many things using small volumes of blood. All of the fraud was aimed at covering that up. (Glucose concentration is one of the few tests that does work with low volumes.) The CoV test we’re talking about has the same fundamental issue — you can’t have an accurate test for an antigen using a small amount of blood. It’s less of a biological problem and more of a statistical sampling problem. The chances of there being a CoV antigen in the small drop of blood that you’d measure with a glucose monitor is very small. Sure, it might work, and the theory behind the device is sound. However, if you had a negative test, you’d never know if it was because you didn’t have CoV or if you just didn’t have any in that small blood sample. I’d be happy to be wrong about this. A quick blood check as opposed to a 15min (the Abbott test) or 24hr (to 1 week with this backlog) wait would be amazing. But the amount of validation you’d need to demonstrate effectiveness would be equally amazing.
- jessriedel 7y ago
  As you allude to, that's an argument based on the basic biology and statistics, not based on Theranos. You could have made that argument pre-Theranos. That Theranos tried, failed, and the covered it up is not much new evidence. Lots of companies try and fail on hard problems all the time. Given that the above test is some random marketing PDF and I haven't heard anyone respectable talk about this mechanism, I don't have much faith in it, so that is consistent with your analysis.
neuro 7y ago
It doesn’t appear that’s the case https://www.amazon.com/GenUltimate-Blood-Glucose-Strips-Meters/dp/B07CY2NKMP/ref=mp_s_a_1_1_sspa?keywords=genultimate&qid=1585415266&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEyNklZMFJPSzlQQ1NVJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwMzQxNjE2WlFDSEVIS0tFVEJWJmVuY3J5cHRlZEFkSWQ9QTA5OTQxMzkxMVZUTjlRQkNCNVlXJndpZGdldE5hbWU9c3BfcGhvbmVfc2VhcmNoX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU= https://www.amazon.com/GenUltimate-Blood-Glucose-Strips-Mete...
- jessriedel 7y ago
  I was referring to Theranos, not GenUltimate.
jon_richards 7y ago
The point is that it’s biologically impossible to test for some things with a finger prick. Theranos was like an electronics company claiming to have “solved” the uncertainty principle. In all these tests people are proposing, you still have to abide by the biological requirements.
- jessriedel 7y ago
  My point still stands regardless of how confident you are in the biological argument: If it's biologically impossible, then you didn't learn anything from the Theranos debacle.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

mbreese 7y ago

The fundamental problem Theranos failed at overcoming was that you can’t accurately measure many things using small volumes of blood. All of the fraud was aimed at covering that up. (Glucose concentration is one of the few tests that does work with low volumes.) The CoV test we’re talking about has the same fundamental issue — you can’t have an accurate test for an antigen using a small amount of blood. It’s less of a biological problem and more of a statistical sampling problem. The chances of there being a CoV antigen in the small drop of blood that you’d measure with a glucose monitor is very small. Sure, it might work, and the theory behind the device is sound. However, if you had a negative test, you’d never know if it was because you didn’t have CoV or if you just didn’t have any in that small blood sample. I’d be happy to be wrong about this. A quick blood check as opposed to a 15min (the Abbott test) or 24hr (to 1 week with this backlog) wait would be amazing. But the amount of validation you’d need to demonstrate effectiveness would be equally amazing.

jessriedel 7y ago
As you allude to, that's an argument based on the basic biology and statistics, not based on Theranos. You could have made that argument pre-Theranos. That Theranos tried, failed, and the covered it up is not much new evidence. Lots of companies try and fail on hard problems all the time. Given that the above test is some random marketing PDF and I haven't heard anyone respectable talk about this mechanism, I don't have much faith in it, so that is consistent with your analysis.

neuro 7y ago

It doesn’t appear that’s the case https://www.amazon.com/GenUltimate-Blood-Glucose-Strips-Meters/dp/B07CY2NKMP/ref=mp_s_a_1_1_sspa?keywords=genultimate&qid=1585415266&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEyNklZMFJPSzlQQ1NVJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwMzQxNjE2WlFDSEVIS0tFVEJWJmVuY3J5cHRlZEFkSWQ9QTA5OTQxMzkxMVZUTjlRQkNCNVlXJndpZGdldE5hbWU9c3BfcGhvbmVfc2VhcmNoX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU= https://www.amazon.com/GenUltimate-Blood-Glucose-Strips-Mete...

jessriedel 7y ago
I was referring to Theranos, not GenUltimate.

jon_richards 7y ago

The point is that it’s biologically impossible to test for some things with a finger prick. Theranos was like an electronics company claiming to have “solved” the uncertainty principle. In all these tests people are proposing, you still have to abide by the biological requirements.

jessriedel 7y ago
My point still stands regardless of how confident you are in the biological argument: If it's biologically impossible, then you didn't learn anything from the Theranos debacle.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]