3 ms·

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to c

by vladd 7y ago

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

frosted-flakes 7y ago
Why would young families suddenly have more children?
- swsieber 7y ago
  There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times. In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home. OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.
  - core-questions 7y ago
    > I know people with children who are going crazy I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out. I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.
  - shahbaby 7y ago
    Most people are desperately looking to the past for guidance on what the future will bring.
- x3n0ph3n3 7y ago
  The same reason that there are spikes in child births 9 months after a long snowstorm.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- evv 7y ago
  Something I saw on Twitter the other day: "in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"
  - empath75 7y ago
    Doesn’t really make sense considering the state of hospitals in the near future.
alexhutcheson 7y ago
> the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up Intuitively, you'd expect that, but the data from previous epidemics show the opposite effect: - http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_SpecialEdition_COVID19_March2020.pdf#page=20 http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_... - https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births

by vladd 7y ago

frosted-flakes 7y ago

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

swsieber 7y ago
There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times. In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home. OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.
- core-questions 7y ago
  > I know people with children who are going crazy I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out. I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.
- shahbaby 7y ago
  Most people are desperately looking to the past for guidance on what the future will bring.
x3n0ph3n3 7y ago
The same reason that there are spikes in child births 9 months after a long snowstorm.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
evv 7y ago
Something I saw on Twitter the other day: "in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"
- empath75 7y ago
  Doesn’t really make sense considering the state of hospitals in the near future.

alexhutcheson 7y ago

> the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up Intuitively, you'd expect that, but the data from previous epidemics show the opposite effect: - http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_SpecialEdition_COVID19_March2020.pdf#page=20 http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_... - https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births