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It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds that regularly erode global supply

by Donald 7y ago

It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life.

Udik 7y ago
Becoming apparent from what?
- bamboozled 7y ago
  A recent increase of natural disasters backed by scientifically proven predictions of more to come with increasing severity adn frequency?
  - EverydayBalloon 7y ago
    Would love to see the data set that supports this assertion.
    - sfkdjf9j3j 7y ago
      Data that warmth produces extreme weather events or data that anthropogenic climate change is happening?
      - EverydayBalloon 7y ago
        Did you not read bamboozled's assertion?
    - soared 7y ago
      > Confirming what had been widely suspected, researchers have found that human-caused climate change had an impact on Australia’s recent devastating wildfires, making the extremely high-risk conditions that led to widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely than in a world without global warming https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/climate/australia-wildfires-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/climate/australia-wildfir... > A 2018 study led by UCLA’s Daniel Swain found that as temperatures continue to rise, California will see a shift to less precipitation in the spring and fall and more in the winter, lengthening the wildfire season. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/how-climate-change-influenced-australias-unprecedented-fires/ https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/how-climate-c... > Van Oldenborgh also noted that climate simulations tend to underestimate the severity of such heat waves, suggesting that climate change may be responsible for even more of the region’s high fire risk. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australia-wildfires-climate-change https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australia-wildfires-clim... I don't have data sets, but after the aus wildfires many outlets reported the above posters claims with sources.
      - EverydayBalloon 7y ago
        "I don't have data sets." I noticed. But you did cite a few models/predictions. Which is NOT the same as a supporting data set. And you also admitted to uncritically accepting the assertions of a few "outlets" after the "aus wildfires". How "science-y"!
  - Udik 7y ago
    Global supply capacity and quality of life are steadily increasing- if anything, you can check global growth rate and poverty index [1]. These are hard data. The increase in natural disasters is also real, but how large is its impact? Can we say it's "eroding" something that is instead steadily increasing? Have you seen the Covid-19 lockdowns? Its impact on our life and on the global economy? That is what a real emergency looks like. But let me break down the parent's statement: > It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds Every century is marked by a series of natural disasters. Some natural disasters are made more frequent by climate change. Some extremely serious ones are not: earthquakes, tsunamis (the last big one killed 220 thousand people) or pandemics like the one we're living now. We've never been on great terms with nature, and we've learned to cope: controlling fires, building water management systems, controlling the spread of diseases and developing vaccines, etc. > that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life. The global wealth is steadily increasing, so it's not clear there is an erosion. Adverse events impact our quality of life, but that's a given, and what we do is preventing and mitigating them. The current pandemic is a natural disaster orders of magnitude worse than anything climate change has brought us- it puts things into perspective. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
  - Udik 7y ago
    This is too vague to be meaningful. Donald's statement is: > It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life. All natural disasters "erode global supply capacity and quality of life". Before and during climate change. (Before much more than now, to be fair, because we spent enormous amounts of energy in securing ourselves from the effects of natural disasters.) Disasters frequency is increasing, according to science. But how much? And how much damage do they cause, in proportion to our wealth? So far, global supply capacity and quality of life have been steadily increasing, despite the "erosion". So, in order for the statement to be meaningful, it is necessary to specify whether the amount of damages is relevant with respect to our current wealth and rate of growth. I think that so far, despite our obsession with it, the impact has been absolutely negligible. The current pandemic serves as a reminder of what a real global disaster looks like. It's not a newspaper headline or a paper full of "may"s and "could"s. And it's not a "has been made x% more probable", either.
chewz 7y ago
How is warm winter natural disaster? I like it like that.
- mrpopo 7y ago
  Many insect and parasites populations shrink during winter. With a warm winter, the ecosystem is now unbalanced, some forests will die out, some animal species will be ridden with ticks, etc. In the longer term, unbalanced ecosystems cause disasters like the ongoing locusts invasion in Africa.
  - chewz 7y ago
    I don't live in Africa
- thawaway1837 7y ago
  Because if it is indicative of a warming planet (which this particular event may or may not be, although the warming of the planet is beyond doubt at this point), then life for human being is gonna get much worse because we have spent centuries setting up civilization based on environmental conditions which are not true anymore. As a result you will see mass migrations as earlier fertile regions become arid, and people compete for scarce resources, exposure to diseases that populations in a region do not have immunity for, and because the changes are due to warming (I.e. an increase in energy in the ecosystem) the greater energy means extreme weather events will become even more extreme, and milder ones will become extreme.
  - chewz 7y ago
    OK so people will move from Africa to Siberia. Why is it a problem?
    - nothrabannosir 7y ago
      For one, the Russians wouldn’t let them in. A few million Syrians coming into Europe was called a “migration crisis”. What will we call it when a billion people move out of the equator?

by Donald 7y ago

It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life.

Udik 7y ago

Becoming apparent from what?

bamboozled 7y ago
A recent increase of natural disasters backed by scientifically proven predictions of more to come with increasing severity adn frequency?
- EverydayBalloon 7y ago
  Would love to see the data set that supports this assertion.
  - sfkdjf9j3j 7y ago
    Data that warmth produces extreme weather events or data that anthropogenic climate change is happening?
    - EverydayBalloon 7y ago
      Did you not read bamboozled's assertion?
  - soared 7y ago
    > Confirming what had been widely suspected, researchers have found that human-caused climate change had an impact on Australia’s recent devastating wildfires, making the extremely high-risk conditions that led to widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely than in a world without global warming https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/climate/australia-wildfires-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/climate/australia-wildfir... > A 2018 study led by UCLA’s Daniel Swain found that as temperatures continue to rise, California will see a shift to less precipitation in the spring and fall and more in the winter, lengthening the wildfire season. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/how-climate-change-influenced-australias-unprecedented-fires/ https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/how-climate-c... > Van Oldenborgh also noted that climate simulations tend to underestimate the severity of such heat waves, suggesting that climate change may be responsible for even more of the region’s high fire risk. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australia-wildfires-climate-change https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australia-wildfires-clim... I don't have data sets, but after the aus wildfires many outlets reported the above posters claims with sources.
    - EverydayBalloon 7y ago
      "I don't have data sets." I noticed. But you did cite a few models/predictions. Which is NOT the same as a supporting data set. And you also admitted to uncritically accepting the assertions of a few "outlets" after the "aus wildfires". How "science-y"!
- Udik 7y ago
  Global supply capacity and quality of life are steadily increasing- if anything, you can check global growth rate and poverty index [1]. These are hard data. The increase in natural disasters is also real, but how large is its impact? Can we say it's "eroding" something that is instead steadily increasing? Have you seen the Covid-19 lockdowns? Its impact on our life and on the global economy? That is what a real emergency looks like. But let me break down the parent's statement: > It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds Every century is marked by a series of natural disasters. Some natural disasters are made more frequent by climate change. Some extremely serious ones are not: earthquakes, tsunamis (the last big one killed 220 thousand people) or pandemics like the one we're living now. We've never been on great terms with nature, and we've learned to cope: controlling fires, building water management systems, controlling the spread of diseases and developing vaccines, etc. > that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life. The global wealth is steadily increasing, so it's not clear there is an erosion. Adverse events impact our quality of life, but that's a given, and what we do is preventing and mitigating them. The current pandemic is a natural disaster orders of magnitude worse than anything climate change has brought us- it puts things into perspective. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
- Udik 7y ago
  This is too vague to be meaningful. Donald's statement is: > It’s becoming apparent that the 21st century will be marked by a series of natural disasters of various severities and speeds that regularly erode global supply capacity and quality of life. All natural disasters "erode global supply capacity and quality of life". Before and during climate change. (Before much more than now, to be fair, because we spent enormous amounts of energy in securing ourselves from the effects of natural disasters.) Disasters frequency is increasing, according to science. But how much? And how much damage do they cause, in proportion to our wealth? So far, global supply capacity and quality of life have been steadily increasing, despite the "erosion". So, in order for the statement to be meaningful, it is necessary to specify whether the amount of damages is relevant with respect to our current wealth and rate of growth. I think that so far, despite our obsession with it, the impact has been absolutely negligible. The current pandemic serves as a reminder of what a real global disaster looks like. It's not a newspaper headline or a paper full of "may"s and "could"s. And it's not a "has been made x% more probable", either.

chewz 7y ago

How is warm winter natural disaster? I like it like that.

mrpopo 7y ago
Many insect and parasites populations shrink during winter. With a warm winter, the ecosystem is now unbalanced, some forests will die out, some animal species will be ridden with ticks, etc. In the longer term, unbalanced ecosystems cause disasters like the ongoing locusts invasion in Africa.
- chewz 7y ago
  I don't live in Africa
thawaway1837 7y ago
Because if it is indicative of a warming planet (which this particular event may or may not be, although the warming of the planet is beyond doubt at this point), then life for human being is gonna get much worse because we have spent centuries setting up civilization based on environmental conditions which are not true anymore. As a result you will see mass migrations as earlier fertile regions become arid, and people compete for scarce resources, exposure to diseases that populations in a region do not have immunity for, and because the changes are due to warming (I.e. an increase in energy in the ecosystem) the greater energy means extreme weather events will become even more extreme, and milder ones will become extreme.
- chewz 7y ago
  OK so people will move from Africa to Siberia. Why is it a problem?
  - nothrabannosir 7y ago
    For one, the Russians wouldn’t let them in. A few million Syrians coming into Europe was called a “migration crisis”. What will we call it when a billion people move out of the equator?