3 ms·

We also regularly hear (otherwise very sensible) software engineers saying stuff like "Clone twitter? How hard could it be?". It's not very hard to see how manu

by WJW 7y ago

We also regularly hear (otherwise very sensible) software engineers saying stuff like "Clone twitter? How hard could it be?". It's not very hard to see how manufacturing life-saving medical equipment in a rush without proper testing could go catastrophically wrong. Even if you get known-good schematics from another company, retooling (say) a car production line to make something else needs a lot of planning to make sure all the supply lines and trained workers are in place.

smoyer 7y ago
That analogy is only partially accurate. For instance, injection molding machines are pretty flexible these days, parts are almost exclusively drawn in CAD and molds are commonly cut with EDM. Every injection molding house has to have the ability to maintain those molds too. So if you wanted auto manufacturers (or more likely one of their suppliers) to produce a plastic part, it could almost be hands off. Send them the CAD files and specifications, produce a short run with heavy QA and once they're started, you can almost have as many parts as you need. Modern cars have such a huge variety of parts with varying materials and characteristics that I'd guess almost all the ventilator parts could be out-sourced. I don't know enough to say what the specialized skills or parts could be but let the ventilator manufacturers build those, do final assembly and QA and you'd at least increase production to some degree. My guess is that the quoted manufacturer has ramped up their existing parts manufacture beyond their ability to do final assembly were Daimler to provide more parts.
- lqet 7y ago
  You are assuming (edit: actually you aren't, see below) that the car manufacturers are producing these parts themselves. It is a lot more complicated for Daimler to produce plastic parts for ventilators (for example) if small plastic parts in Daimler cars have been produced in China for the last 25 years and delivered just-in-time to the assembly line in Stuttgart.
  - helij 7y ago
    Europe is full of plastic moulding factories, big and small. Capability is there. Not everything is made in China. My friend has a small plastic moulding factory back home with 15 machines and his father is a tool maker. They themselves could produce 50,000 plastic parts a day if needed.
  - smoyer 7y ago
    "(or more likely one of their suppliers)" I don't think I was assuming that ... but your point is valid. Certain car parts have indeed been the same for a long period of time. You'd certainly want to avoid the suppliers that are resistant to change or that have historically taken many iterations to get to the point where they can produce 10s and 100s of millions consistently. There are however manufacturers that specialize in smaller runs and more precision (two within 20 minutes of where I type this which is NOT considered a traditional manufacturing area). I'd be willing to bet those managing the supply chain for the car companies know exactly which type of company is which (where do their engineering departments have short-run prototypes made?)
luckylion 7y ago
The issue with cloning Twitter is primarily the network effect, not the technology. That's different in ventilators, unless you're looking at long term investments, e.g. when this is over and you've invested heavily into scaling production, you might not be in a good spot.
- pyb 7y ago
  For that reason, additional production capacity should be subsidized by the government, but I don't see that it is going to happen in this case.
  - luckylion 7y ago
    I agree, and I don't understand the reasoning not to. This almost-complete-shut-down has a gigantic price tag attached, I'd guess that anything that will make it pass easier or quicker will be an easy decision.
    - pyb 7y ago
      With this crisis, we see that governments do not always make rational decisions.
buboard 7y ago
unfortunate analogy. many countries with closed internet have "cloned twitter"
speedgoose 7y ago
Any government could clone Twitter if they must. It's not rocket science and Twitter is actually quite open about their architecture and technologies choice.
- Zenst 7y ago
  I think many would love if Twitter was partitioned by age - certainly make it less toxic in many respects.
helij 7y ago
Plastics are very easy if you have in house tooling capability. In 2002 I was working in a plastic moulding part of the factory that produces commutators. We went from 0 to fully developed product in 24 hours and were ready to mass produce. Hundred parts on three machines per minute. And this was 2002. I imagine today it's even easier. So, indeed this is not a hard problem because it was solved decades ago. Dyson in UK is ready to produce their own version of ventilators already.

by WJW 7y ago

smoyer 7y ago

That analogy is only partially accurate. For instance, injection molding machines are pretty flexible these days, parts are almost exclusively drawn in CAD and molds are commonly cut with EDM. Every injection molding house has to have the ability to maintain those molds too. So if you wanted auto manufacturers (or more likely one of their suppliers) to produce a plastic part, it could almost be hands off. Send them the CAD files and specifications, produce a short run with heavy QA and once they're started, you can almost have as many parts as you need. Modern cars have such a huge variety of parts with varying materials and characteristics that I'd guess almost all the ventilator parts could be out-sourced. I don't know enough to say what the specialized skills or parts could be but let the ventilator manufacturers build those, do final assembly and QA and you'd at least increase production to some degree. My guess is that the quoted manufacturer has ramped up their existing parts manufacture beyond their ability to do final assembly were Daimler to provide more parts.

lqet 7y ago
You are assuming (edit: actually you aren't, see below) that the car manufacturers are producing these parts themselves. It is a lot more complicated for Daimler to produce plastic parts for ventilators (for example) if small plastic parts in Daimler cars have been produced in China for the last 25 years and delivered just-in-time to the assembly line in Stuttgart.
- helij 7y ago
  Europe is full of plastic moulding factories, big and small. Capability is there. Not everything is made in China. My friend has a small plastic moulding factory back home with 15 machines and his father is a tool maker. They themselves could produce 50,000 plastic parts a day if needed.
- smoyer 7y ago
  "(or more likely one of their suppliers)" I don't think I was assuming that ... but your point is valid. Certain car parts have indeed been the same for a long period of time. You'd certainly want to avoid the suppliers that are resistant to change or that have historically taken many iterations to get to the point where they can produce 10s and 100s of millions consistently. There are however manufacturers that specialize in smaller runs and more precision (two within 20 minutes of where I type this which is NOT considered a traditional manufacturing area). I'd be willing to bet those managing the supply chain for the car companies know exactly which type of company is which (where do their engineering departments have short-run prototypes made?)

luckylion 7y ago

The issue with cloning Twitter is primarily the network effect, not the technology. That's different in ventilators, unless you're looking at long term investments, e.g. when this is over and you've invested heavily into scaling production, you might not be in a good spot.

pyb 7y ago
For that reason, additional production capacity should be subsidized by the government, but I don't see that it is going to happen in this case.
- luckylion 7y ago
  I agree, and I don't understand the reasoning not to. This almost-complete-shut-down has a gigantic price tag attached, I'd guess that anything that will make it pass easier or quicker will be an easy decision.
  - pyb 7y ago
    With this crisis, we see that governments do not always make rational decisions.

buboard 7y ago

unfortunate analogy. many countries with closed internet have "cloned twitter"

speedgoose 7y ago

Any government could clone Twitter if they must. It's not rocket science and Twitter is actually quite open about their architecture and technologies choice.

Zenst 7y ago
I think many would love if Twitter was partitioned by age - certainly make it less toxic in many respects.

helij 7y ago

Plastics are very easy if you have in house tooling capability. In 2002 I was working in a plastic moulding part of the factory that produces commutators. We went from 0 to fully developed product in 24 hours and were ready to mass produce. Hundred parts on three machines per minute. And this was 2002. I imagine today it's even easier. So, indeed this is not a hard problem because it was solved decades ago. Dyson in UK is ready to produce their own version of ventilators already.