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Interesting you mentioned Makridakis competitions. There's one going on right now on Kaggle, and the current leader believes a NN will be the winning model: htt
by p1esk 7y ago
Interesting you mentioned Makridakis competitions. There's one going on right now on Kaggle, and the current leader believes a NN will be the winning model:
https://www.kaggle.com/c/m5-forecasting-accuracy/discussion/138881 https://www.kaggle.com/c/m5-forecasting-accuracy/discussion/...
More generally, it seems that time series forecasting so far has mostly attracted statisticians with little DL experience [1]. Now that there is $50k prize, this will be a good test of whether statistical methods are "still king". If I were to enter this field, I'd probably look into latest transformer based models, especially the ones used to model raw audio data, e.g. [2].
There's also a real possibility that whenever any strong forecasting method is developed (DL based or otherwise) it's not published as the developers simply use it to make money (betting, stock market, etc).
[1] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
[2] https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10509 https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10509
- anthony_doan 7y agoI'll wait to see the result at the end of the competition. This is just one of the two competitions for m5. The other one is uncertainty.