4 ms·

> I have seen realistic assessments of the ultimate effectiveness I'm afraid we only see the chinese government's report and data on how the epidemic is spread

> I have seen realistic assessments of the ultimate effectiveness I'm afraid we only see the chinese government's report and data on how the epidemic is spreading within China.

robocat 7y ago
I think China is mostly telling the truth. Firstly, exports are hard to lie about. Order something from alibaba yourself, or here’s some graphs: https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-coronavirus-manufacturing-resurgence-200326.html https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-co... Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas. Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle. Of course you can always come up with some conspirational theory, and I keep my eyes open for lies, but common sense says that China is doing OK.
- dmoy 7y ago
  > Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle. This part is huge. When apartment complexes are already surrounded by walls with a couple gates, it's easier to control flow of people in and out. The infrastructure already in place (yes I know, hardy har har, chinese building walls, ok) actually helps a lot. We've got family back on mainland who can't get in and out of their apartment complex without getting their temperature taken (both directions) and playing 20 questions with the guards about where they're going.
  - dirtyid 7y ago
    It's kind of how alarming raising Sinophobia and Chinese skepticism since the tradewar has made people unable to process reality when it comes to China. Millions of accessible posts on Chinese social media showing the conditions of lockdown from Wuhan to other cities. Thousands of expats stuck in China confirming the ground truth. Media reposted on twitter and youtube etc. But everything either gets downvoted out of view or dismissed as propaganda to the detriment of their own response. If everyone saw the measures being taken in China to contain COVID, then maybe they wouldn't have reacted so poorly.
- scribu 7y ago
  Whoever's downvoting this comment, how do you refute the point that export numbers are hard to fake? It would collusion from all of China and all of the importing countries.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    They looked at the numbers, said "Ah, fuck it, this ain't that bad." and resumed production? It's not like the factories are full of 70+ year-old workers.
  - rumanator 7y ago
    > how do you refute the point that export numbers are hard to fake? By the fact that there are already reports of factories throughout the world that kept operating eventhough they were experiencing an outbreak of covid19 within their staff. And let's be honest: no one places China in the top spots in rankings on safe working conditions and human rights.
    - robocat 7y ago
      Right. And then you get sickness and death. Which is why I wrote: Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas.
- rumanator 7y ago
  Your points boil down to: a) China keeps on exporting, b) liars are caught and Trump didn't caught the Chinese regime lying, c) The Chinese regime enforced quarantined effectively. From these points, only the third has any relation with and impact in the outbreak of covid19 within China. However, as the virus is reported to have an asymptomatic incubation period that can be as long as 2 to 3 weeks, and as there are reports from within China that show that covid19 can be transmitted at over 4 meters, then, as we have seen in Italy and Spain, the impact of this measure would only start to show with that much of a lag. I admit I am not an epidemiologist, but claiming that an epidemic was just stopped on it's tracks almost instantly has little to no credibility. For that to be even remotely realistic, there needed to be zero asymptomatic carriers from one day to another. To add insult to injury, the Chinese government reported that the only new covid19 cases experienced within China came from foreigners who imported the disease. I'm sure the measures imposed by the Chinese regime has a profound impact on the epidemic, but none of the official reports appear to have any credibility whatsoever. A disease with a 1 to 3 week incubation period does not stop spreading or killing people from one day to the other. What does stop immediately is how you chose to report the data, specially counting the dead.

> I have seen realistic assessments of the ultimate effectiveness I'm afraid we only see the chinese government's report and data on how the epidemic is spreading within China.

robocat 7y ago

I think China is mostly telling the truth. Firstly, exports are hard to lie about. Order something from alibaba yourself, or here’s some graphs: https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-coronavirus-manufacturing-resurgence-200326.html https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-co... Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas. Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle. Of course you can always come up with some conspirational theory, and I keep my eyes open for lies, but common sense says that China is doing OK.

dmoy 7y ago
> Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle. This part is huge. When apartment complexes are already surrounded by walls with a couple gates, it's easier to control flow of people in and out. The infrastructure already in place (yes I know, hardy har har, chinese building walls, ok) actually helps a lot. We've got family back on mainland who can't get in and out of their apartment complex without getting their temperature taken (both directions) and playing 20 questions with the guards about where they're going.
- dirtyid 7y ago
  It's kind of how alarming raising Sinophobia and Chinese skepticism since the tradewar has made people unable to process reality when it comes to China. Millions of accessible posts on Chinese social media showing the conditions of lockdown from Wuhan to other cities. Thousands of expats stuck in China confirming the ground truth. Media reposted on twitter and youtube etc. But everything either gets downvoted out of view or dismissed as propaganda to the detriment of their own response. If everyone saw the measures being taken in China to contain COVID, then maybe they wouldn't have reacted so poorly.
scribu 7y ago
Whoever's downvoting this comment, how do you refute the point that export numbers are hard to fake? It would collusion from all of China and all of the importing countries.
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  They looked at the numbers, said "Ah, fuck it, this ain't that bad." and resumed production? It's not like the factories are full of 70+ year-old workers.
- rumanator 7y ago
  > how do you refute the point that export numbers are hard to fake? By the fact that there are already reports of factories throughout the world that kept operating eventhough they were experiencing an outbreak of covid19 within their staff. And let's be honest: no one places China in the top spots in rankings on safe working conditions and human rights.
  - robocat 7y ago
    Right. And then you get sickness and death. Which is why I wrote: Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas.
rumanator 7y ago
Your points boil down to: a) China keeps on exporting, b) liars are caught and Trump didn't caught the Chinese regime lying, c) The Chinese regime enforced quarantined effectively. From these points, only the third has any relation with and impact in the outbreak of covid19 within China. However, as the virus is reported to have an asymptomatic incubation period that can be as long as 2 to 3 weeks, and as there are reports from within China that show that covid19 can be transmitted at over 4 meters, then, as we have seen in Italy and Spain, the impact of this measure would only start to show with that much of a lag. I admit I am not an epidemiologist, but claiming that an epidemic was just stopped on it's tracks almost instantly has little to no credibility. For that to be even remotely realistic, there needed to be zero asymptomatic carriers from one day to another. To add insult to injury, the Chinese government reported that the only new covid19 cases experienced within China came from foreigners who imported the disease. I'm sure the measures imposed by the Chinese regime has a profound impact on the epidemic, but none of the official reports appear to have any credibility whatsoever. A disease with a 1 to 3 week incubation period does not stop spreading or killing people from one day to the other. What does stop immediately is how you chose to report the data, specially counting the dead.