Good points, but a back-of-envelope calculation looks like: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu)) 0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072 That infection proba

Good points, but a back-of-envelope calculation looks like: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu)) 0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072 That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.