4 ms·
A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New Yo
by yingw787 7y ago
A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New York City. 29% of those hospitalized are between 20-44 y/o:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-people-ages-20-to-44-hospitalizations-20-percent-adults-spring-break-social-distancing/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-peopl...
The problem with exponential growth is a small change in the growth factor means a great deal. Spanish Flu reportedly caused people to think civilization itself will come to an end, not just because of the death rates but because people refused to take care of the sick / do essential jobs: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-1...
Spanish Flu was "just a flu" @ 3-4% mortality. Right now COVID-19 is around 1% mortality, but IIRC I've heard from Bill Gate's virtual TED discussion reopening the country by Easter will result in that 3-4% mortality.
Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrarian. I really wish I believed in your optimism for this point, but the dots don't seem to connect for me.