3 ms·

We’re going through all these lockdowns to help prevent vulnerable groups from dying needless deaths. This is important to be sure, but it’s a far cry from soci

We’re going through all these lockdowns to help prevent vulnerable groups from dying needless deaths. This is important to be sure, but it’s a far cry from societal collapse. I care about people staying home as much as the next guy but I’m so tired of the hysteria. We’re protecting the elderly here, let’s keep some perspective. I’m not “just saying it will be alright”, I’m saying this specifically will be alright. Comparisons with bygone empires are far more apt in almost any other conversation : MAD, global warming, hell even cyber warfare.

themagician 7y ago
We aren’t just protecting the elderly. 20% of people need hospitalization. There aren’t enough beds or ventilators. Maybe in a week there will be. Maybe there won’t. That’s a big gamble.
yingw787 7y ago
A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New York City. 29% of those hospitalized are between 20-44 y/o: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-people-ages-20-to-44-hospitalizations-20-percent-adults-spring-break-social-distancing/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-peopl... The problem with exponential growth is a small change in the growth factor means a great deal. Spanish Flu reportedly caused people to think civilization itself will come to an end, not just because of the death rates but because people refused to take care of the sick / do essential jobs: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-1... Spanish Flu was "just a flu" @ 3-4% mortality. Right now COVID-19 is around 1% mortality, but IIRC I've heard from Bill Gate's virtual TED discussion reopening the country by Easter will result in that 3-4% mortality. Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrarian. I really wish I believed in your optimism for this point, but the dots don't seem to connect for me.

themagician 7y ago

We aren’t just protecting the elderly. 20% of people need hospitalization. There aren’t enough beds or ventilators. Maybe in a week there will be. Maybe there won’t. That’s a big gamble.

yingw787 7y ago

A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New York City. 29% of those hospitalized are between 20-44 y/o: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-people-ages-20-to-44-hospitalizations-20-percent-adults-spring-break-social-distancing/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-peopl... The problem with exponential growth is a small change in the growth factor means a great deal. Spanish Flu reportedly caused people to think civilization itself will come to an end, not just because of the death rates but because people refused to take care of the sick / do essential jobs: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-1... Spanish Flu was "just a flu" @ 3-4% mortality. Right now COVID-19 is around 1% mortality, but IIRC I've heard from Bill Gate's virtual TED discussion reopening the country by Easter will result in that 3-4% mortality. Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrarian. I really wish I believed in your optimism for this point, but the dots don't seem to connect for me.