3 ms·

I respectfully disagree. Things get better or worse based on our decision-making skills and the physical state of the world, not because we "deserve" to get bet

I respectfully disagree. Things get better or worse based on our decision-making skills and the physical state of the world, not because we "deserve" to get better or because it "naturally" happens. We have to put in the effort and hard work in order to attain greatness, it doesn't just come. For example, I made two Hacker News posts about the coronavirus before all this happened, and both times people rose to dismiss my concerns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22111815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22111815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22453381 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22453381 Now JHU CSSE is reporting 23,970 deaths and a continued exponential rise in confirmed cases with no peaking in sight. We're quarantining themselves on a state-by-state basis, NY w/ Cuomo is locking down hard while New Orleans was partying @ Mardi Gras. No restrictions on domestic interstate travel. No federal roadmap for the next three to six months. No communications with even our closest allies on travel bans. Just as surely as the sun rises, black swans can and do happen, and sometimes empires and peoples don't get up. Not ever. Carthage, Babylon, Jericho, Palmyra, Teotihuacan, and a hundred other once-great cities said we will overcome and persevere, and now they're dead and dead forever. We have absolutely got to stop thinking we're exceptional and we're different. We're where we are now because a lot of good men and women worked tirelessly to get us here, sometimes kicking and screaming. We'll get out of it if and only if we listen to those same men and women working tirelessly on our behalf. Otherwise we will join the dead in the scrap heap of history. Don't ever, ever assume it can't happen to you.

maximente 7y ago
several of those examples about once great entities (?) were destroyed in part if not wholly by foreign armies - so i'm not sure that rhetoric is (or at least those examples are) really appropriate here.
- yingw787 7y ago
  Death is always an uncomfortable discussion topic, but I'd say it's one of our best teachers. To bring up one of my examples, Palmyra was once a wealthy Roman provincial capital in Asia Minor, separated from the Roman Empire by declaring the Palmyrene Empire during the Crisis of the Third Century, and henceforth destroyed by Aurelian. You can argue the Roman army would be a foreign army composed partly of barbarians unfamiliar to a longstanding part of the Roman Empire, and you can also argue it's a domestic army putting down an insurrection. Now take this news: https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-being-outbid-federal-government-coronavirus-supplies-despite-1493332 https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-bei... President Trump is outbidding state governors for medical equipment during this crisis, while telling them to purchase their own directly from the supplier. States don't issue currency and can't run a deficit, and federal treasuries are much more plentiful than state treasuries because of a greater lever to tax, so President Trump gets the medical supplies. President Trump can increase the amount of production by invoking the Defense Production Act, but has not yet done so; as far as I know private companies are increasing production due to increased demand (which has to be proven after people die and start panicking) and not out of a proactive government grant. Massachusetts is a state that votes mostly Democratic at the federal level. California and Washington state are mostly Democratic at the federal level too. Now, for the million-dollar question: given the federal government's response, would you say this behavior is indicative of a federal government that treats these states as domestic, or foreign, entities? I've read through maybe a third of the Federalist Papers, and the first ten or fifteen letters hammer home the importance of union in the face of enemies foreign and domestic. Tear away that fabric, and you have the Greek city-states or the Balkans on a continental scale.
nothrabannosir 7y ago
We’re going through all these lockdowns to help prevent vulnerable groups from dying needless deaths. This is important to be sure, but it’s a far cry from societal collapse. I care about people staying home as much as the next guy but I’m so tired of the hysteria. We’re protecting the elderly here, let’s keep some perspective. I’m not “just saying it will be alright”, I’m saying this specifically will be alright. Comparisons with bygone empires are far more apt in almost any other conversation : MAD, global warming, hell even cyber warfare.
- themagician 7y ago
  We aren’t just protecting the elderly. 20% of people need hospitalization. There aren’t enough beds or ventilators. Maybe in a week there will be. Maybe there won’t. That’s a big gamble.
- yingw787 7y ago
  A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New York City. 29% of those hospitalized are between 20-44 y/o: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-people-ages-20-to-44-hospitalizations-20-percent-adults-spring-break-social-distancing/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-peopl... The problem with exponential growth is a small change in the growth factor means a great deal. Spanish Flu reportedly caused people to think civilization itself will come to an end, not just because of the death rates but because people refused to take care of the sick / do essential jobs: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-1... Spanish Flu was "just a flu" @ 3-4% mortality. Right now COVID-19 is around 1% mortality, but IIRC I've heard from Bill Gate's virtual TED discussion reopening the country by Easter will result in that 3-4% mortality. Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrarian. I really wish I believed in your optimism for this point, but the dots don't seem to connect for me.

maximente 7y ago

several of those examples about once great entities (?) were destroyed in part if not wholly by foreign armies - so i'm not sure that rhetoric is (or at least those examples are) really appropriate here.

yingw787 7y ago
Death is always an uncomfortable discussion topic, but I'd say it's one of our best teachers. To bring up one of my examples, Palmyra was once a wealthy Roman provincial capital in Asia Minor, separated from the Roman Empire by declaring the Palmyrene Empire during the Crisis of the Third Century, and henceforth destroyed by Aurelian. You can argue the Roman army would be a foreign army composed partly of barbarians unfamiliar to a longstanding part of the Roman Empire, and you can also argue it's a domestic army putting down an insurrection. Now take this news: https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-being-outbid-federal-government-coronavirus-supplies-despite-1493332 https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-bei... President Trump is outbidding state governors for medical equipment during this crisis, while telling them to purchase their own directly from the supplier. States don't issue currency and can't run a deficit, and federal treasuries are much more plentiful than state treasuries because of a greater lever to tax, so President Trump gets the medical supplies. President Trump can increase the amount of production by invoking the Defense Production Act, but has not yet done so; as far as I know private companies are increasing production due to increased demand (which has to be proven after people die and start panicking) and not out of a proactive government grant. Massachusetts is a state that votes mostly Democratic at the federal level. California and Washington state are mostly Democratic at the federal level too. Now, for the million-dollar question: given the federal government's response, would you say this behavior is indicative of a federal government that treats these states as domestic, or foreign, entities? I've read through maybe a third of the Federalist Papers, and the first ten or fifteen letters hammer home the importance of union in the face of enemies foreign and domestic. Tear away that fabric, and you have the Greek city-states or the Balkans on a continental scale.

nothrabannosir 7y ago

We’re going through all these lockdowns to help prevent vulnerable groups from dying needless deaths. This is important to be sure, but it’s a far cry from societal collapse. I care about people staying home as much as the next guy but I’m so tired of the hysteria. We’re protecting the elderly here, let’s keep some perspective. I’m not “just saying it will be alright”, I’m saying this specifically will be alright. Comparisons with bygone empires are far more apt in almost any other conversation : MAD, global warming, hell even cyber warfare.

themagician 7y ago
We aren’t just protecting the elderly. 20% of people need hospitalization. There aren’t enough beds or ventilators. Maybe in a week there will be. Maybe there won’t. That’s a big gamble.
yingw787 7y ago
A few days ago I would have said you're right. But this virus changes day by day, and there are reports younger people are requiring ICU / ventilation in New York City. 29% of those hospitalized are between 20-44 y/o: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-people-ages-20-to-44-hospitalizations-20-percent-adults-spring-break-social-distancing/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-updates-young-peopl... The problem with exponential growth is a small change in the growth factor means a great deal. Spanish Flu reportedly caused people to think civilization itself will come to an end, not just because of the death rates but because people refused to take care of the sick / do essential jobs: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-1... Spanish Flu was "just a flu" @ 3-4% mortality. Right now COVID-19 is around 1% mortality, but IIRC I've heard from Bill Gate's virtual TED discussion reopening the country by Easter will result in that 3-4% mortality. Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrarian. I really wish I believed in your optimism for this point, but the dots don't seem to connect for me.