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Many people confuse virus growth rates with positive test rates (limited by testing), owing to governments testing slowly in order to claim positive lockdown ef

Many people confuse virus growth rates with positive test rates (limited by testing), owing to governments testing slowly in order to claim positive lockdown effects (slower positive test rate growth). For example, here in Austria the tests are increasing by ~10% per day currently and they pat themselves on the back when positive tests grow "only" 15% per day. Meanwhile, deaths are increasing by 30-50% per day. If Iceland with its extensive tests has concluded that 1% of their population is currently infected, it's naive to assume that more accessible countries where covid19 spread earlier are less affected.

blattimwind 7y ago
Death numbers may be a better proxy for how widespread it is, but they suffer from even larger lag than infection numbers and less clear counting rules (see: Russia, and various other countries, not counting deaths of COVID-19 infected, if they had {any, some} prior illness).
- jeremyjh 7y ago
  Even in Italy the death numbers may be signficantly under-counted. https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-...
- Zenst 7y ago
  Sadly you are right, though as mentioned by others, not all testing in countries and registration of deaths are equal. But it is probably the best metric so far alas. However, hold a thought for postal workers in a few months as they will be asked to monitor people's mailboxes filling up as a sign that somebody died inside and nobody knows.
cycrutchfield 7y ago
>If Iceland with its extensive tests has concluded that 1% of their population is currently infected People really need to stop parroting this. Please see the article this claim came from (https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-voluntary-screening-on-iceland/ https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-...). Note how it says voluntary screening, not randomly-selected screening? Since it is voluntary, there is likely a significant selection bias. It is much more probable that the actual population infected rate at the time of that screening was much less than 1%.

blattimwind 7y ago

Death numbers may be a better proxy for how widespread it is, but they suffer from even larger lag than infection numbers and less clear counting rules (see: Russia, and various other countries, not counting deaths of COVID-19 infected, if they had {any, some} prior illness).

jeremyjh 7y ago
Even in Italy the death numbers may be signficantly under-counted. https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-...
Zenst 7y ago
Sadly you are right, though as mentioned by others, not all testing in countries and registration of deaths are equal. But it is probably the best metric so far alas. However, hold a thought for postal workers in a few months as they will be asked to monitor people's mailboxes filling up as a sign that somebody died inside and nobody knows.

cycrutchfield 7y ago

>If Iceland with its extensive tests has concluded that 1% of their population is currently infected People really need to stop parroting this. Please see the article this claim came from (https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-voluntary-screening-on-iceland/ https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-...). Note how it says voluntary screening, not randomly-selected screening? Since it is voluntary, there is likely a significant selection bias. It is much more probable that the actual population infected rate at the time of that screening was much less than 1%.