6 ms·

How long? Buying a week or less isn't worth the damage to the economy.

Cerium 7y ago
As long as it takes to get ahead.
elorant 7y ago
A week won't do shit. You need a couple of months for the curve to become flat and from there on you go to targeted lockdowns through a lot of testing.
vkou 7y ago
1. The economy is going to be destroyed regardless. Right-thinking people currently don't want to travel, don't want to eat out, don't want to go to entertainment venues. If you lift the lockdown tomorrow, without actually controlling the virus, all of those industries are still going to die (Along with a few million people), with all the knock-on effects. Also, once everyone expects a recession, people reign in spending, thus making that expectation self-fulfilling. 2. There's every reason to believe that a lockdown significantly cuts down R, even to below 1, thus buying a lot more than a week. It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown?
- lazyjones 7y ago
  > It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown? It's a global epidemic now, Wuhan isn't safe. What measures will really let us leave lockdown, other than hunting down and isolating (or worse...) infected world-wide?
- sershe 7y ago
  I'm tired of this story (1 above) frankly. Have you been anywhere with lockdown as it was being ramped up? I don't know where those right thinking people are, but even after everything-except-the-stay-at-home order in WA (i.e. everything closed and a recommendation to stay home including freakin signs on the highway), everything that was open was extremely crowded, from the park near my home to any restaurant with takeout nearby benches or a park, to hiking trails. We went out, a trailhead was literally the most crowded I've seen it in my 8 years here by far (Little Si trail, the big overflow-overflow parking lot was almost full). That is WITH lockdown and constant media fear mongering. Without lockdown it would be even (from my position) better. I was working thoughout the week, but even with stay at home order and parking lots gated, someone told me there are tons of people on weekdays out on popular trails, parking on nearby roads and walking in, and I applaud this civil disobedience. Right thinking people would go out and live their lives. We also have a historical example of Spanish flu that did nothing to economy even in medium term.

As long as it takes to get ahead.

A week won't do shit. You need a couple of months for the curve to become flat and from there on you go to targeted lockdowns through a lot of testing.

vkou 7y ago

1. The economy is going to be destroyed regardless. Right-thinking people currently don't want to travel, don't want to eat out, don't want to go to entertainment venues. If you lift the lockdown tomorrow, without actually controlling the virus, all of those industries are still going to die (Along with a few million people), with all the knock-on effects. Also, once everyone expects a recession, people reign in spending, thus making that expectation self-fulfilling. 2. There's every reason to believe that a lockdown significantly cuts down R, even to below 1, thus buying a lot more than a week. It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown?

lazyjones 7y ago
> It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown? It's a global epidemic now, Wuhan isn't safe. What measures will really let us leave lockdown, other than hunting down and isolating (or worse...) infected world-wide?
sershe 7y ago
I'm tired of this story (1 above) frankly. Have you been anywhere with lockdown as it was being ramped up? I don't know where those right thinking people are, but even after everything-except-the-stay-at-home order in WA (i.e. everything closed and a recommendation to stay home including freakin signs on the highway), everything that was open was extremely crowded, from the park near my home to any restaurant with takeout nearby benches or a park, to hiking trails. We went out, a trailhead was literally the most crowded I've seen it in my 8 years here by far (Little Si trail, the big overflow-overflow parking lot was almost full). That is WITH lockdown and constant media fear mongering. Without lockdown it would be even (from my position) better. I was working thoughout the week, but even with stay at home order and parking lots gated, someone told me there are tons of people on weekdays out on popular trails, parking on nearby roads and walking in, and I applaud this civil disobedience. Right thinking people would go out and live their lives. We also have a historical example of Spanish flu that did nothing to economy even in medium term.