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Should say "most confirmed" cases since the actual number of infections is completely unknown. But given the minimal testing in the US, and the failure of many
by standardUser 7y ago
Should say "most confirmed" cases since the actual number of infections is completely unknown. But given the minimal testing in the US, and the failure of many state governments to suppress the transmission rate, it's hard to imagine another nation surpassing the number of US cases.
- HellDunkel 7y agoI am not an expert but i am really puzzled by how one may think any goverment could stop a virus from spreading. Do you really think China managed to block the virus inside its borders when it already made it to other continents? That is utterly ridiculous.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- tomohawk 7y agoJapan seems to be doing fine with minimal testing. https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/ https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight...
- standardUser 7y agoJapan is an enigma and I have yet to see a satisfactory explanation of how they have kept transmission and fatalities so low despite minimal government efforts.
- weikju 7y agoCases are beginning to rise dramatically in Japan.
- skinnymuch 7y agoSource? This would be very interesting considering the Olympics are definitely delayed. Edit: okay I see. Still too early to tell. But hah pretty funny if it really is just a huge coincidence post Olympic news
- weikju 7y agoCoincidence or not, I won’t theorize on it. However being here in Japan it does look like people haven’t been taking this seriously at all, not learning what is happening in other countries and how quickly it can go from negligible to nightmarish. Therefore Japan is ripe for a second wave. And it’s probably already happening...
- standardUser 7y agoYes, this is what I hear from people on the ground in Japan. But, if this is the case, where are the overwhelmed hospitals? Where's the surge of respiratory-related deaths. This coronavirus has been in Japan much longer than most places, and the government efforts to suppress it have been minimal. So where is the impact we expect to see from this virus, like we have seen in Italy and Iran? It doesn't add up.
- weikju 7y agoHence why I’m not delving into theories about olympics and suppression. Simply observing the facts that confirmed cases are rising again and more rapidly, people appear too relaxed, and we’re very much at risk of a second wave and a bad one. Hoping the medical system can cope. Hoping it won’t be a bad second wave.
- saber6 7y ago> [...] it's hard to imagine another nation surpassing the number of US cases. Your anti-US bias is showing. Lol - I can think of dozens of other places that are worst than say Mississippi.
- solean 7y agoIt's really not that hard to imagine China having more cases...
- llampx 7y agoI watched a few videos from China and they seemed to be taking it very seriously, nothing like how the US is handling it.
- Retric 7y agoI doubt China could have kept a lid on things if the virus has been spreading uncontrollably. Further, the majority of documented cases from the peak have recovered. Which means the associated undocumented cases from then also recovered. So, while they might have had more total cases, we likely have far more active cases.
- tyingq 7y agoOr to imagine the draconian measures that limited the cases. I imagine there was a little of both.
- mbrubeck 7y agoThe South China Morning Post (Hong Kong's newspaper of record) reports that China excluded 43,000 confirmed-but-asymptomatic cases from its official statistics, and kept the true number classified: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/thir... This would mean that the true number of confirmed cases in China is more than 50% higher than the official number.
- blackrock 7y agoWell, if your statement is correct, then this actually lowers their death rate, the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio). They reported 81,285 cases. So, 81,285 + 43,000 = 124,285 cases. And 3287 deaths. So, that’s a 2.64% death rate. At these numbers, and with the virus now worldwide, I think China’s numbers are now irrelevant. It’s better to begin focusing our energies on mitigation and containment.
- hprotagonist 7y agoindia comes immediately to mind, in, uh ... 8-12 days probably?
- zik 7y agoIndia have implemented nation wide lockdown so maybe they'll be ok. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-52044058/coronavirus-first-day-of-lockdown-in-india https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-52044058/coronavirus-first...
- tyingq 7y agoIsn't the population density there such that a lockdown might not have the same effect it did elsewhere? Edit: 29th ranked, behind Hong Kong, South Korea, but ahead of most other newsworthy COVID hot spots. I suspect large Indian cities are well above 29th.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y agoadd Latin America too. also Russia (not as densely populated though)
- standardUser 7y agoMuch of Latin America locked down early and hard. Brazil might be the big exception.
- pritovido 7y agoIndia has lots of young people. Young people are not affected as badly as old people. Also India has no Winter, only Monsoons, wet and dry. It is warn and dry there now. It seems this virus propagates much better in cold weather.
- altmind 7y ago> It seems this virus propagates much better in cold weather. Its the first time i hear such claim.
- SigmundA 7y agoJust watched Trump get questioned on this and he implied its because we have done the most testing of anyone and China was under reporting.
- tyingq 7y agoI try to avoid politics here. But our current state around testing, consistent policy, communication, coordinated efforts around supply shortages, etc. I'm embarrassed to be a US citizen right now. We could be so much better at this with really very little effort. Lots of capable people just needing direction. I wish the president would appoint a credible corona-czar and give up the microphone.
- standardUser 7y agoThe US has been doing a lot of testing for literally just a few days. Spain has over twice the testing rate (per capita) as the US, and Italy several times more than that.
- tlrobinson 7y agoUS testing started out slow but it's now up to 100,000 tests per day (and more than half a million total), which I think is the most of any country (though probably not per capita) https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data (hasn't been updated in a week)
- the8472 7y agoAre they doing population-level randomly sampled testing?
- vonmoltke 7y agoNo jurisdiction is doing randomly-sampled testing, so how is this relevant?
- the8472 7y agoSingapore does, and it's relevant because it's the best way to get an unbiased view of the situation, such as asymptomatic spread.
- vonmoltke 7y agoSource? I can't find any information that Singapore's testing is random. Also, if it is I stand corrected on my original statement. However, Singapore is a pretty small, cohesive nation with a strong central government. They, along with a handful of other city-states, are uniquely positioned for this. The poster child for testing-based control, South Korea, is not testing randomly. So, how is this a dig on the US?
- the8472 7y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eRK2Y5jBHk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eRK2Y5jBHk > So, how is this a dig on the US? It factors into the "most confirmed" discussion. Nobody has a true perspective if everyone's samples suffer from wildly different biases.
- downerending 7y agoUnfortunately, it's pretty easy to imagine India doing so, given the size of their population and many challenges.
- seemslegit 7y agoShould adjust for population, but then the US will actually come out remarkably good in terms of both confirmed cases and mortality rates and whatever political/social case to be made on this will be lost.
- ck2 7y agoYou realize this is just the very beginning right? Hospitals are already overwhelmed, what do you imagine is going to happen when the number continues to double every five days? It's exponential. Start of the curve.
- seemslegit 7y agoI am talking about the curves, adjusted for population the US mortality curve tracks Germany's pretty tightly.
- DiogenesKynikos 7y agoThe true numbers won't be known until serological studies are conducted. It's possible to tell who has had the virus, even months after the fact, by testing for antibodies in serum. However, given how differently the US and China have responded to the virus, it's hard to see how the US will not surpass China (if it hasn't already done so) in total number of cases.