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I'm sorry. You are correct. Although Ferguson attributes most of the benefit to the lockdown, he does acknowledge a change of R0 further revising the numbers do
by jtbayly 7y ago
I'm sorry. You are correct. Although Ferguson attributes most of the benefit to the lockdown, he does acknowledge a change of R0 further revising the numbers down.
Where I got confused was attributing some of the things said by Gupta (behind the Oxford model) to Ferguson (behind the Imperial College model).
- sgt101 7y agoThis is really, really, really irresponsible. Please do not post on this again, anywhere, ever.
- jtbayly 7y agoWhat? Saying I'm sorry I was wrong? Ok, I'll stop saying that. Edited to add: This article was shared with me. I read it. I read the other one on newscientist.com. I thought it was huge news. I began to question my assumptions about Covid-19. I wanted discussion of it on HN so I could get help thinking about it because there are many good comments from careful people here. I got the help I was looking for, and my thinking is clarified. If you think I should have just kept it to myself and gone on my merry way with my new assumptions, spreading them around without trying to get a discussion going here about it, well then... ok.
- triceratops 7y agoDon't sweat it. sgt101 is being terribly uncivil.