4 ms·

> It also estimates that the UK will not run out of ICU beds in the process. That'd be wonderful. But, doesn't that conflict with what we saw actually happen

> It also estimates that the UK will not run out of ICU beds in the process. That'd be wonderful. But, doesn't that conflict with what we saw actually happen in Italy?

lutorm 7y ago
New York is close to getting there, too.
booboolayla 7y ago
This. When a scientist claims Venice is going under water we shouldn't blindly trust their words, especially if Venice is still above water.
neaden 7y ago
It does indeed, or what we are seeing in New York. I'm very skeptical of this, though it would of course be great news if it was true. I can't help but have whiplash from the fact that the UK seems to have gone from an attitude of we're going to be fine, to we're all going to die, to now it's going to be fine again. Edit: I think it is important to keep in mind that Italy's deaths per day are still going up. The growth has slowed and hopefully we are about to see the peak but it still hasn't come. Most western countries are on the same growth rate as Italy, there is no reason right now to think we won't see something similar happen all over the world.
- irchans 7y ago
  The number of new case per day in Italy has stabilized at 5000 to 6000 per day. Date Cases New Cases March 10 9172 1797 March 11 10149 977 March 12 12462 2313 March 13 15113 2651 March 14 17660 2547 March 15 21157 3497 March 16 24747 3590 March 17 27980 3233 March 18 31506 3526 March 19 35713 4207 March 20 41035 5322 March 21 47021 5986 March 22 53578 6557 March 23 59138 5560 March 24 63927 4789 March 25 69176 5249 March 26 74386 5210
  - neaden 7y ago
    New cases isn't a good metric because of how testing can change. Deaths is more reliable metric to be used when prevalence is high, as it is in Italy and now the US.
    - salmon30salmon 7y ago
      And in the case of Italy, you would expect the new case rate to outpace itself for a long while as testing is ramped up, but even with increased testing the new case level is leveling off. This indicates an already infected populace that has since recovered.
    - glofish 7y ago
      deaths are not a reliable metric at all. old and sick people are far more susceptible.
sunkenvicar 7y ago
Florence Italy was home to Hug A Chinese National Day during the Chinese New Year when many Chinese people are allowed to travel globally. Hopefully fewer visited the UK and even fewer had close contact with the locals.
- jimhefferon 7y ago
  > Hug A Chinese National Day A rational person can't possibly believe that this is the cause of their troubles, even if there were such a thing.
  - sunkenvicar 7y ago
    I agree it’s hard to believe such a thing existed and undoubtedly accelerated the spread of the Wuhan Virus. Many lives could have been saved if Italy embraced social distancing instead of virtue signalling. Proof: https://www.westernjournal.com/italian-mayor-starts-hug-chinese-campaign-weeks-later-entire-country-lockdown/ https://www.westernjournal.com/italian-mayor-starts-hug-chin...
jtbayly 7y ago
Not necessarily. If transmissibility is high, you could be seeing close to the peak. The data out of NY that makes me most suspicious of this new model is actually the 72% negative rate on tests. I would expect that to be a lot lower. But that's just a gut feeling.
- salmon30salmon 7y ago
  Half of those 72% may have had it three weeks ago and are a-ok now. Without testing for antibodies, all we can say is they do not _currently actively have an infection._
- DanBC 7y ago
  The tests have pretty high false negative rates. https://twitter.com/cynthiaccox/status/1242868006293843971/photo/1 https://twitter.com/cynthiaccox/status/1242868006293843971/p...
thu2111 7y ago
Not exactly. Italy has never run out of ICU beds. There have been sporadic and garbled reports of temporary shortages in Lombardy specifically, alleviated by patient transfers and ward conversions, and some of those reports were contradictory (e.g. doctors or mayors saying they were rationing care but other more senior healthcare leaders saying they weren't). The UK had a hospital that hit capacity temporarily but it only lasted 12 hours before transfers reduced the pressure again. We'll be seeing a lot of activity like that in the next weeks - reports that hospitals are full, then they stop being full as more capacity is added or patients are rebalanced onto other hospitals. The assumption of total ICU exhaustion seems to have been based on the assumption of uniform case growth everywhere which isn't happening, and perhaps also an inability to quickly add capacity.

> It also estimates that the UK will not run out of ICU beds in the process. That'd be wonderful. But, doesn't that conflict with what we saw actually happen in Italy?

lutorm 7y ago

New York is close to getting there, too.

booboolayla 7y ago

This. When a scientist claims Venice is going under water we shouldn't blindly trust their words, especially if Venice is still above water.

neaden 7y ago

It does indeed, or what we are seeing in New York. I'm very skeptical of this, though it would of course be great news if it was true. I can't help but have whiplash from the fact that the UK seems to have gone from an attitude of we're going to be fine, to we're all going to die, to now it's going to be fine again. Edit: I think it is important to keep in mind that Italy's deaths per day are still going up. The growth has slowed and hopefully we are about to see the peak but it still hasn't come. Most western countries are on the same growth rate as Italy, there is no reason right now to think we won't see something similar happen all over the world.

irchans 7y ago
The number of new case per day in Italy has stabilized at 5000 to 6000 per day. Date Cases New Cases March 10 9172 1797 March 11 10149 977 March 12 12462 2313 March 13 15113 2651 March 14 17660 2547 March 15 21157 3497 March 16 24747 3590 March 17 27980 3233 March 18 31506 3526 March 19 35713 4207 March 20 41035 5322 March 21 47021 5986 March 22 53578 6557 March 23 59138 5560 March 24 63927 4789 March 25 69176 5249 March 26 74386 5210
- neaden 7y ago
  New cases isn't a good metric because of how testing can change. Deaths is more reliable metric to be used when prevalence is high, as it is in Italy and now the US.
  - salmon30salmon 7y ago
    And in the case of Italy, you would expect the new case rate to outpace itself for a long while as testing is ramped up, but even with increased testing the new case level is leveling off. This indicates an already infected populace that has since recovered.
  - glofish 7y ago
    deaths are not a reliable metric at all. old and sick people are far more susceptible.

sunkenvicar 7y ago

Florence Italy was home to Hug A Chinese National Day during the Chinese New Year when many Chinese people are allowed to travel globally. Hopefully fewer visited the UK and even fewer had close contact with the locals.

jimhefferon 7y ago
> Hug A Chinese National Day A rational person can't possibly believe that this is the cause of their troubles, even if there were such a thing.
- sunkenvicar 7y ago
  I agree it’s hard to believe such a thing existed and undoubtedly accelerated the spread of the Wuhan Virus. Many lives could have been saved if Italy embraced social distancing instead of virtue signalling. Proof: https://www.westernjournal.com/italian-mayor-starts-hug-chinese-campaign-weeks-later-entire-country-lockdown/ https://www.westernjournal.com/italian-mayor-starts-hug-chin...

jtbayly 7y ago

Not necessarily. If transmissibility is high, you could be seeing close to the peak. The data out of NY that makes me most suspicious of this new model is actually the 72% negative rate on tests. I would expect that to be a lot lower. But that's just a gut feeling.

salmon30salmon 7y ago
Half of those 72% may have had it three weeks ago and are a-ok now. Without testing for antibodies, all we can say is they do not _currently actively have an infection._
DanBC 7y ago
The tests have pretty high false negative rates. https://twitter.com/cynthiaccox/status/1242868006293843971/photo/1 https://twitter.com/cynthiaccox/status/1242868006293843971/p...

thu2111 7y ago

Not exactly. Italy has never run out of ICU beds. There have been sporadic and garbled reports of temporary shortages in Lombardy specifically, alleviated by patient transfers and ward conversions, and some of those reports were contradictory (e.g. doctors or mayors saying they were rationing care but other more senior healthcare leaders saying they weren't). The UK had a hospital that hit capacity temporarily but it only lasted 12 hours before transfers reduced the pressure again. We'll be seeing a lot of activity like that in the next weeks - reports that hospitals are full, then they stop being full as more capacity is added or patients are rebalanced onto other hospitals. The assumption of total ICU exhaustion seems to have been based on the assumption of uniform case growth everywhere which isn't happening, and perhaps also an inability to quickly add capacity.