3 ms·
Reliable data on asymptomatic cases. The models we have at the moment are trying to fit parameters based on the known data, but of the known data, the only reli
by he11ow 7y ago
Reliable data on asymptomatic cases.
The models we have at the moment are trying to fit parameters based on the known data, but of the known data, the only reliable one is the death rate. So there are a lot of degrees of freedom here with regards to the spread of the virus. (Because carriers are only identified on a limited basis, mostly in hospitals, it presents a skewed picture, so this data is not hugely useful)
Once antibodies tests are available, you can get a sense of how many people in a sample population have had the disease with mild-to-no symptoms, and that can say a lot about how it's spread.
- Terretta 7y ago> of the known data, the only reliable one is the death rate Back of the napkin numbers to get someone's attention: deaths today / CFR of 0.009 = cases three weeks ago cases three weeks ago * 7 three day doublings = cases today In much more detail: http://hyperdrive.ca/coronavirus/index.php http://hyperdrive.ca/coronavirus/index.php And in the "4 out of 5 dentists agree" category: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronav...