9 ms·

Well, that’s some fear mongering. The article is all anecdotes. Most of the nurses and doctors they talked to are anonymous sources. According to the AHA[1],

by vnchr 7y ago

Well, that’s some fear mongering. The article is all anecdotes. Most of the nurses and doctors they talked to are anonymous sources. According to the AHA[1], there are 6,146 hospitals in the US. There are 68,000 confirmed covid-19 cases in the US, and 33,000 of those cases are all in New York—almost 10x more than the next states (4.4k NJ, 3.2k CA)[2]. I don’t know the rate of hospitalization for the infected, but symptoms are mild enough for home recovery for at least 80%. So this is bad in NY. But even the next most affected state, NJ, we’re looking at a worst case of ~880 covid-19 patients across 70+ hospitals[3]. Bad situation in NY. No need to say it’s like that across the whole US. - [1] https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-map-of-the-us-latest-cases-state-by-state https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/26... [3] http://www.njha.com/media/316774/2014EconomicImpactReportFINALwtabsupdated.pdf http://www.njha.com/media/316774/2014EconomicImpactReportFIN...

Luc 7y ago
Doubling every 3 days.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
enchiridion 7y ago
Remember the US is short on tests, so I would assume a greater than 20% hospitalization rate because only the most severe cases are being reported.
- kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
  Mild cases aren't being reported either because none of them qualify for testing and couldn't get one anyway due to low availability.
- vonmoltke 7y ago
  According to data from the COVID Tracking project, the hospitalization rate nationwide is a bit under 10%[1], with NY at about 13%[2]. No doubt they are missing some cases, since theirs is an exercise in piecing together multiple, manually-curated sources. It seems to be a good ballpark estimate, though. [1] https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ [2] https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY
simonh 7y ago
That's not a worst case, it's just the current situation today. The worst case is when we reach peak concurrent infections, whenever that is and however many it is. My wife is a nurse at a London hospital here in the UK. They're overwhelmed, whole hospitals have been converted to Covid-19 only. A nurse at another hospital here recently committed suicide because she couldn't face treating so many patients dying in agony every day. My wife's ward had some patients with other conditions transferred from one of them, but half of those patients subsequently showed symptoms soon after and now it's going through her hospital like widldfire. She's currently living in a Premier Inn near her hospital, because her parents live with us. They're high risk and she doesn't want to bring it back with her. She's going to be working shifts over the weekend and I don't know when I'll see her again. She has asthma. Sorry if this is all too anecdotal for you.
theli0nheart 7y ago
This isn't fear-mongering. This is reality. My dad is a practicing internist in Miami. He told me last night that every ICU in the area is already filled with patients. I doubt every single one of those patients has been tested and is counting towards these official numbers.
- throwaway55554 7y ago
  This is key. We're still not testing in large enough numbers to know the extent of this.
3JPLW 7y ago
Seriously? We've watched this thing spread over the past three months. Every single nation and state saw exponential growth of confirmed cases once community spread started happening — often doubling every 2-4 days. The growth continued until serious mitigations (like shutdowns and lockdowns) were put in place. Why do you think the rest of the US is going to be different? They're just a few doublings (some days) behind.
- yters 7y ago
  What did South Korea do to mitigate?
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    South Korea stockpiled enough supplies to do mass testing and contact tracing right out of the gate. And they have a functional government and a public that knows when to obey.
    - yters 7y ago
      doesnt sound like what the OP was proposing also, sk only tested people with significant ailments
      - 3JPLW 7y ago
        There's a difference in timeframe and scope here. You can get away with testing and individual quarantines if you start early. Now, 1 in 3 (!!) tests are coming back positive in NY. Too many people have it at this point for it to be effective.
      - Gibbon1 7y ago
        Far as I understand sk tested and quarantined contacts ill or not.
  - 3JPLW 7y ago
    Extensive — super extensive — testing, contact tracing, and strong quarantining of suspected and confirmed positives. From the get-go.
throwaway5752 7y ago
That's not fear mongering at all. It's the truth in several areas that were infected early. Spread is exponential and ICU is at the median 14 days from exposure. You would expect the highest density and earliest sites to see overwhelmed ICUs there. That's going to happen everywhere in the next few weeks and months. The idea you are discounting anonymous sources is ill-founded given this is realtime in healthcare (in which being on record as a source could be an employment risk) and agrees with every analysis, including the briefings from the military and intelligence community given to the president in January and February. It also agrees with analyses of this specific situation, which almost exactly the archetype of the type of pandemic people were concerned about. I suspect Florida and Louisiana are next. You are also incorrectly aggregating data and not looking at local demographic and healthcare coverage. Beds and ICUs are not evenly distributed. There was a rural healthcare crisis before COVID-19 and the demographics were older with more CFR associated comorbities, too. VA outside of NoVA, WVa, AL, KY, southern OH, MO, AK, AR... it's just a matter of time.
mda 7y ago
I hope you can make the same comment in two weeks. I think you are way too optimistic about situation.
dboreham 7y ago
Sorry, but I'm getting really frustrated reading all sorts of delusional thinking on social media so it's disappointing to see it here too. You've somehow convinced yourself that exponential growth exists only in another universe, not the one you're living in.
Analemma_ 7y ago
How are we this far into this crisis and there are still people who don't understand what "exponential growth" and "doubling every 3 days" means? This comment is going to look ridiculous in two weeks' time.
vesinisa 7y ago
You're only fooling yourself. Everyone except medical professionals in my country were too saying it's not going to be so bad, most people do not require hospitalization etc. etc. We are now in complete lockdown to avoid full blown meltdown of the health care system. Not as bad as Italy and Spain, but still bad. What concerns me in the US: * The spring breakers. Massive number of college students are currently traveling and partying around the country and then returning home to their parents. These are young people without symptoms who are carrying the virus across the country and state borders. You're going to see a massive spike in cases in about a week I am afraid. * Generally low regard of authorities, and a "culture of individualism". Many people are just going to say it's another scare tactic, "big government", mainstream media, some conspiracy etc. People - up to the president - really think they know better than scientist who have devoted their lives to studying contagious diseases. * Patch work approach to public health. Each state has its own regulations and measures. This is not good when you need to act fast. I except federal martial law to override states could come to effect (in my country it already is - the government is currently decreeing through martial law and temporarily suppressing basic freedoms like freedom of movement protected in our constitution). * Culture of working while sick. Many low income earners in US have no access to sick pay so they are forced to work even if sick. I understand this was however being addressed by temporarily introducing federal sick pay? If not, I'd hurry the f-ck up with that. NOW. Remember that the virus takes effect after a delay of up to 14 days. If you're seeing ICUs filling up today and not taking measures to stop the spread, you're going to require military scale hospitals next week.
zepearl 7y ago
The amount of intensive care units (and their type) and their location is more important than the total number of hospitals.
rrss 7y ago
If we applied this reasoning a week or 10 days ago, when there were ~4000 cases in the United States ("we're looking at a worst case of 800 people across all the hospitals in the country"), would we not reach this conclusion: "Bad situation in Italy. No need to say it's like that in the United States." And should that not make us concerned about this thought process?
therealcamino 7y ago
After the hospitals in Wuhan were quickly overwhelmed, we apparently thought it wouldn't happen outside China. After the hospitals in Lombardy were overwhelmed, apparently lots of people in the US thought it couldn't happen in New York like it happened in Italy. So I don't think the argument "It can't happen in NJ the way it is happening in NY" is a convincing one, it's just wishful thinking. The tragic thing is that neither I nor anyone else needs to argue against this ridiculous "worst case" of 880 hospitalizations (that apparently assumes no growth beyond 4402 cases on March 25): all we need to do is wait until later today when the new numbers come out. If you're looking for on-the-record sources, every ICU bed in Atlanta is full, according to the mayor of Atlanta. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489374-atlanta-mayor-explains-decision-to-impose-stricter-restrictions-than https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489374-atlanta-mayo... That's with 1,387 confirmed cases Wednesday, up from 1,097 confirmed cases Tuesday.
- therealcamino 7y ago
  And now it's later today, and the increase in confirmed NJ cases is 2,492, or 56% in a single day. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-coronavirus-outbreak-hits-6876-cases-with-81-deaths-another-2492-positive-tests-in-huge-single-day-increase.html https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-coronavirus-outbre...

by vnchr 7y ago

Luc 7y ago

Doubling every 3 days.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

enchiridion 7y ago

Remember the US is short on tests, so I would assume a greater than 20% hospitalization rate because only the most severe cases are being reported.

kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
Mild cases aren't being reported either because none of them qualify for testing and couldn't get one anyway due to low availability.
vonmoltke 7y ago
According to data from the COVID Tracking project, the hospitalization rate nationwide is a bit under 10%[1], with NY at about 13%[2]. No doubt they are missing some cases, since theirs is an exercise in piecing together multiple, manually-curated sources. It seems to be a good ballpark estimate, though. [1] https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ [2] https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY

simonh 7y ago

That's not a worst case, it's just the current situation today. The worst case is when we reach peak concurrent infections, whenever that is and however many it is. My wife is a nurse at a London hospital here in the UK. They're overwhelmed, whole hospitals have been converted to Covid-19 only. A nurse at another hospital here recently committed suicide because she couldn't face treating so many patients dying in agony every day. My wife's ward had some patients with other conditions transferred from one of them, but half of those patients subsequently showed symptoms soon after and now it's going through her hospital like widldfire. She's currently living in a Premier Inn near her hospital, because her parents live with us. They're high risk and she doesn't want to bring it back with her. She's going to be working shifts over the weekend and I don't know when I'll see her again. She has asthma. Sorry if this is all too anecdotal for you.

theli0nheart 7y ago

This isn't fear-mongering. This is reality. My dad is a practicing internist in Miami. He told me last night that every ICU in the area is already filled with patients. I doubt every single one of those patients has been tested and is counting towards these official numbers.

throwaway55554 7y ago
This is key. We're still not testing in large enough numbers to know the extent of this.

3JPLW 7y ago

Seriously? We've watched this thing spread over the past three months. Every single nation and state saw exponential growth of confirmed cases once community spread started happening — often doubling every 2-4 days. The growth continued until serious mitigations (like shutdowns and lockdowns) were put in place. Why do you think the rest of the US is going to be different? They're just a few doublings (some days) behind.

yters 7y ago
What did South Korea do to mitigate?
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  South Korea stockpiled enough supplies to do mass testing and contact tracing right out of the gate. And they have a functional government and a public that knows when to obey.
  - yters 7y ago
    doesnt sound like what the OP was proposing also, sk only tested people with significant ailments
    - 3JPLW 7y ago
      There's a difference in timeframe and scope here. You can get away with testing and individual quarantines if you start early. Now, 1 in 3 (!!) tests are coming back positive in NY. Too many people have it at this point for it to be effective.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      Far as I understand sk tested and quarantined contacts ill or not.
- 3JPLW 7y ago
  Extensive — super extensive — testing, contact tracing, and strong quarantining of suspected and confirmed positives. From the get-go.

throwaway5752 7y ago

That's not fear mongering at all. It's the truth in several areas that were infected early. Spread is exponential and ICU is at the median 14 days from exposure. You would expect the highest density and earliest sites to see overwhelmed ICUs there. That's going to happen everywhere in the next few weeks and months. The idea you are discounting anonymous sources is ill-founded given this is realtime in healthcare (in which being on record as a source could be an employment risk) and agrees with every analysis, including the briefings from the military and intelligence community given to the president in January and February. It also agrees with analyses of this specific situation, which almost exactly the archetype of the type of pandemic people were concerned about. I suspect Florida and Louisiana are next. You are also incorrectly aggregating data and not looking at local demographic and healthcare coverage. Beds and ICUs are not evenly distributed. There was a rural healthcare crisis before COVID-19 and the demographics were older with more CFR associated comorbities, too. VA outside of NoVA, WVa, AL, KY, southern OH, MO, AK, AR... it's just a matter of time.

mda 7y ago

I hope you can make the same comment in two weeks. I think you are way too optimistic about situation.

dboreham 7y ago

Sorry, but I'm getting really frustrated reading all sorts of delusional thinking on social media so it's disappointing to see it here too. You've somehow convinced yourself that exponential growth exists only in another universe, not the one you're living in.

Analemma_ 7y ago

How are we this far into this crisis and there are still people who don't understand what "exponential growth" and "doubling every 3 days" means? This comment is going to look ridiculous in two weeks' time.

vesinisa 7y ago

You're only fooling yourself. Everyone except medical professionals in my country were too saying it's not going to be so bad, most people do not require hospitalization etc. etc. We are now in complete lockdown to avoid full blown meltdown of the health care system. Not as bad as Italy and Spain, but still bad. What concerns me in the US: * The spring breakers. Massive number of college students are currently traveling and partying around the country and then returning home to their parents. These are young people without symptoms who are carrying the virus across the country and state borders. You're going to see a massive spike in cases in about a week I am afraid. * Generally low regard of authorities, and a "culture of individualism". Many people are just going to say it's another scare tactic, "big government", mainstream media, some conspiracy etc. People - up to the president - really think they know better than scientist who have devoted their lives to studying contagious diseases. * Patch work approach to public health. Each state has its own regulations and measures. This is not good when you need to act fast. I except federal martial law to override states could come to effect (in my country it already is - the government is currently decreeing through martial law and temporarily suppressing basic freedoms like freedom of movement protected in our constitution). * Culture of working while sick. Many low income earners in US have no access to sick pay so they are forced to work even if sick. I understand this was however being addressed by temporarily introducing federal sick pay? If not, I'd hurry the f-ck up with that. NOW. Remember that the virus takes effect after a delay of up to 14 days. If you're seeing ICUs filling up today and not taking measures to stop the spread, you're going to require military scale hospitals next week.

zepearl 7y ago

The amount of intensive care units (and their type) and their location is more important than the total number of hospitals.

rrss 7y ago

If we applied this reasoning a week or 10 days ago, when there were ~4000 cases in the United States ("we're looking at a worst case of 800 people across all the hospitals in the country"), would we not reach this conclusion: "Bad situation in Italy. No need to say it's like that in the United States." And should that not make us concerned about this thought process?

therealcamino 7y ago

After the hospitals in Wuhan were quickly overwhelmed, we apparently thought it wouldn't happen outside China. After the hospitals in Lombardy were overwhelmed, apparently lots of people in the US thought it couldn't happen in New York like it happened in Italy. So I don't think the argument "It can't happen in NJ the way it is happening in NY" is a convincing one, it's just wishful thinking. The tragic thing is that neither I nor anyone else needs to argue against this ridiculous "worst case" of 880 hospitalizations (that apparently assumes no growth beyond 4402 cases on March 25): all we need to do is wait until later today when the new numbers come out. If you're looking for on-the-record sources, every ICU bed in Atlanta is full, according to the mayor of Atlanta. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489374-atlanta-mayor-explains-decision-to-impose-stricter-restrictions-than https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489374-atlanta-mayo... That's with 1,387 confirmed cases Wednesday, up from 1,097 confirmed cases Tuesday.

therealcamino 7y ago
And now it's later today, and the increase in confirmed NJ cases is 2,492, or 56% in a single day. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-coronavirus-outbreak-hits-6876-cases-with-81-deaths-another-2492-positive-tests-in-huge-single-day-increase.html https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-coronavirus-outbre...