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I wrote a comment elsewhere about death rates in the US. 81 people per day is not an astronomical number for the most densely populated part of the country, in

I wrote a comment elsewhere about death rates in the US. 81 people per day is not an astronomical number for the most densely populated part of the country, in fact it's well within the normal number of deaths according to CDC data. In fact, just compared to heart disease alone, it might be slightly on the lower end.

raesene9 7y ago
But of course heart disease isn't contagious and rapidly increasing. I think if it were, it would be far more concerning, wouldn't you agree? The problem is, as bad as the current numbers are, without significant changes, they are inevitably going to get considerably worse quickly, as you can see from the graphs. Imagine what'll happen if 60% of the US population gets this quickly (over the next 3 months say) and then 2% of those people die with another 8% in hospital...
loriverkutya 7y ago
With the current rate it’s going to be 2500 death per day in 10 days.
DanBC 7y ago
A stable 80 deaths per day isn't that many, it's only 29,200 people per year. But with covid-19 the numbers of people dying is doubling every 3 days. 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10,240, 20,480 Potentially Covid-19 would hit that 29200 figure in about 25 days from today.
- drstewart 7y ago
  Keep extrapolating and you'll find 2.5 trillion people will be dead just a week after that.
  - DanBC 7y ago
    Look at Italy; look at Spain. These are not unreasonable extrapolations.
    - brenden2 7y ago
      Neither of them have exponential growth. The rate of growth has steadily decreased after the first initial spike of cases.
      - gpderetta 7y ago
        The growth seems to be tapering off after extreme lockdown measures have been taken.
      - DanBC 7y ago
        Of deaths? Here's Spain. They implemented lockdown on about the 7th of March. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ 8th 17 deaths 11th 55 14th 196 17th 533 20th 1093 23rd 2311 26th 4365
beepboopbeep 7y ago
This is absurd.

raesene9 7y ago

But of course heart disease isn't contagious and rapidly increasing. I think if it were, it would be far more concerning, wouldn't you agree? The problem is, as bad as the current numbers are, without significant changes, they are inevitably going to get considerably worse quickly, as you can see from the graphs. Imagine what'll happen if 60% of the US population gets this quickly (over the next 3 months say) and then 2% of those people die with another 8% in hospital...

loriverkutya 7y ago

With the current rate it’s going to be 2500 death per day in 10 days.

DanBC 7y ago

A stable 80 deaths per day isn't that many, it's only 29,200 people per year. But with covid-19 the numbers of people dying is doubling every 3 days. 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10,240, 20,480 Potentially Covid-19 would hit that 29200 figure in about 25 days from today.

drstewart 7y ago
Keep extrapolating and you'll find 2.5 trillion people will be dead just a week after that.
- DanBC 7y ago
  Look at Italy; look at Spain. These are not unreasonable extrapolations.
  - brenden2 7y ago
    Neither of them have exponential growth. The rate of growth has steadily decreased after the first initial spike of cases.
    - gpderetta 7y ago
      The growth seems to be tapering off after extreme lockdown measures have been taken.
    - DanBC 7y ago
      Of deaths? Here's Spain. They implemented lockdown on about the 7th of March. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ 8th 17 deaths 11th 55 14th 196 17th 533 20th 1093 23rd 2311 26th 4365

beepboopbeep 7y ago

This is absurd.