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I’m not sure about this. China is, rightfully, being blamed for the initial outbreak of the virus and their failure to contain it. I think when the dust settles

I’m not sure about this. China is, rightfully, being blamed for the initial outbreak of the virus and their failure to contain it. I think when the dust settles, we’re going to see a rapid decoupling from China as countries look inward to strengthen their domestic supply chains. I have a hard time seeing China emerging as a winner from this crisis.

mensetmanusman 7y ago
This. China cares for its people by imprisoning them with brute technology and camps?
vkou 7y ago
Given how poorly the rest of the world reacted after getting two months of advance warning, I can't think of more than three countries that could have contained this outbreak. Fingerpointing at China when they reacted far more decisively then the West did seems... A tad off the mark. If this originated in Milan, Kansas, or Bangalore, we'd all be in the exact same boat today. Hell, if the outbreak started in Kansas, we would probably have a hundred thousand dead by now, with our supreme leader still insisting that the virus will magically go away in three weeks.
- mensetmanusman 7y ago
  Not sure it is fair to say that the world really had advanced warning from China. They were saying everything was okay and people-people transmission is low. All trust was lost, so time was reset when Italy was hit, that is the real time zero, because no one trusts China.
  - vkou 7y ago
    > They were saying everything was okay and people-people transmission is low. For the first two weeks of January. When they got to the point of locking down an entire city, it became pretty clear to everyone that it was a serious situation. We looked at that, and did... Nothing.
    - Izkata 7y ago
      The first lockdown in Italy was Feb 21. Trump had alread convened a task force to investigate and handle the spread of the virus on Jan 29, and was later called racist for the travel restrictions placed on people coming from China on Jan 31. It's apparently been memory-holed, but during this period it was the US media calling it "no worse than the flu", not the other way around.
      - vkou 7y ago
        And what did that task force accomplish? * Shipping a laughably insufficient number of test kits that didn't work, while banning private labs from developing their own tests. We still have a crippling test kit shortage. * Asking people traveling from China to self-quarantine, and not following up. * No stockpiles of necessary medical supplies. Getting called names has never stopped him from rolling out bad policy in the past. I don't see why it can be credited for stopping him from rolling out good policy this time.
jberm123 7y ago
If China becomes less dependent on exports to the US, they could dump US treasuries, which could potentially destroy the US economy & the dollar. They have the US by the balls.
- blackrock 7y ago
  Interesting theory. I suspect China will continue to do what they’ve been doing, and build out their own country. The United States was built on the foundation of transportation (roads and highways), automobiles, mortgages, and travel. These industries built up the middle class, by providing jobs for home, and profits from exports to abroad. Then came tech and the massive windfall from that. They essentially have the population of 4 United States, that they can essentially just compete internally among themselves, while still producing products for export to abroad. They can just follow the same playbook here. * Infrastructure, check, they have highways, airports, and also, high speed trains. * Automobiles, check, they have the largest car market in the world. And they are continually working with, and learning from, their European partners. Eventually, they’ll get good enough to not need external partnerships. * Mortgages, check, lots of high rises, since that’s the only way to house so many people. * Travel, in progress, they’re working really hard to make a commercial airliner. This will take another 20 years, but Boeing messed up with their 737 Max fiasco, which may give them an opening sooner. But most of the parts to this airplane comes from American companies, so if Trump wants, then he can really crush their airplane independence dreams, at least for 10 years. * Technology, in progress, they have mostly web companies, and application companies, but not yet core technology companies. They still don’t quite have CPU and memory chip companies yet, and they outsourced manufacturing to Taiwan. This is where Trump can really crush them, but again, at a heavy price, and only for 10 years. In the end, anything is possible, but I highly doubt they are interested in squeezing the US by the balls anyways. They are finding it more profitable to maintain friendly terms with the US, and sell them cheaper trinkets, than taking a confrontational approach, and getting into a hot war, where nobody wins, except Lockheed.
  - jberm123 7y ago
    OP assumed the rest of the world will become less dependent on foreign goods, which would therefore hurt China. I pointed out China is hedged to come out on top in that scenario, not that China would necessarily push for that scenario.
travisporter 7y ago
Inner cynic: For now long? 5 years? Then we will again be cutting costs, looking at the bottom line, and find that Chinese manufacturing gives a better bottom line.

mensetmanusman 7y ago

This. China cares for its people by imprisoning them with brute technology and camps?

vkou 7y ago

Given how poorly the rest of the world reacted after getting two months of advance warning, I can't think of more than three countries that could have contained this outbreak. Fingerpointing at China when they reacted far more decisively then the West did seems... A tad off the mark. If this originated in Milan, Kansas, or Bangalore, we'd all be in the exact same boat today. Hell, if the outbreak started in Kansas, we would probably have a hundred thousand dead by now, with our supreme leader still insisting that the virus will magically go away in three weeks.

mensetmanusman 7y ago
Not sure it is fair to say that the world really had advanced warning from China. They were saying everything was okay and people-people transmission is low. All trust was lost, so time was reset when Italy was hit, that is the real time zero, because no one trusts China.
- vkou 7y ago
  > They were saying everything was okay and people-people transmission is low. For the first two weeks of January. When they got to the point of locking down an entire city, it became pretty clear to everyone that it was a serious situation. We looked at that, and did... Nothing.
  - Izkata 7y ago
    The first lockdown in Italy was Feb 21. Trump had alread convened a task force to investigate and handle the spread of the virus on Jan 29, and was later called racist for the travel restrictions placed on people coming from China on Jan 31. It's apparently been memory-holed, but during this period it was the US media calling it "no worse than the flu", not the other way around.
    - vkou 7y ago
      And what did that task force accomplish? * Shipping a laughably insufficient number of test kits that didn't work, while banning private labs from developing their own tests. We still have a crippling test kit shortage. * Asking people traveling from China to self-quarantine, and not following up. * No stockpiles of necessary medical supplies. Getting called names has never stopped him from rolling out bad policy in the past. I don't see why it can be credited for stopping him from rolling out good policy this time.

jberm123 7y ago

If China becomes less dependent on exports to the US, they could dump US treasuries, which could potentially destroy the US economy & the dollar. They have the US by the balls.

blackrock 7y ago
Interesting theory. I suspect China will continue to do what they’ve been doing, and build out their own country. The United States was built on the foundation of transportation (roads and highways), automobiles, mortgages, and travel. These industries built up the middle class, by providing jobs for home, and profits from exports to abroad. Then came tech and the massive windfall from that. They essentially have the population of 4 United States, that they can essentially just compete internally among themselves, while still producing products for export to abroad. They can just follow the same playbook here. * Infrastructure, check, they have highways, airports, and also, high speed trains. * Automobiles, check, they have the largest car market in the world. And they are continually working with, and learning from, their European partners. Eventually, they’ll get good enough to not need external partnerships. * Mortgages, check, lots of high rises, since that’s the only way to house so many people. * Travel, in progress, they’re working really hard to make a commercial airliner. This will take another 20 years, but Boeing messed up with their 737 Max fiasco, which may give them an opening sooner. But most of the parts to this airplane comes from American companies, so if Trump wants, then he can really crush their airplane independence dreams, at least for 10 years. * Technology, in progress, they have mostly web companies, and application companies, but not yet core technology companies. They still don’t quite have CPU and memory chip companies yet, and they outsourced manufacturing to Taiwan. This is where Trump can really crush them, but again, at a heavy price, and only for 10 years. In the end, anything is possible, but I highly doubt they are interested in squeezing the US by the balls anyways. They are finding it more profitable to maintain friendly terms with the US, and sell them cheaper trinkets, than taking a confrontational approach, and getting into a hot war, where nobody wins, except Lockheed.
- jberm123 7y ago
  OP assumed the rest of the world will become less dependent on foreign goods, which would therefore hurt China. I pointed out China is hedged to come out on top in that scenario, not that China would necessarily push for that scenario.

travisporter 7y ago

Inner cynic: For now long? 5 years? Then we will again be cutting costs, looking at the bottom line, and find that Chinese manufacturing gives a better bottom line.