I think my understanding of the current situation is about as good as any layperson. I have been following closely, I called all the policy changes in my state

I think my understanding of the current situation is about as good as any layperson. I have been following closely, I called all the policy changes in my state to within a day or two, etc. I don't think that the evidence on what will happen next is so clear that all right-thinking people will come to the same conclusions, as you imply.