7 ms·

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. Peop

by wil421 7y ago

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business didn’t suddenly stop.

duxup 7y ago
>Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. Yeah I've been doing a fair amount of takeout and places where you had dozens of people ... operating with two or three people now.
- alharith 7y ago
  My brother is a restaurant owner and reports that despite volume being down, profit is up due to less overhead. Others in the restaurant industry are reporting the same. When we come out on the other side of this, I think a lot of businesses are going to rethink a lot of things they held on to as infallible truths. Sorry as many mentioned, yes the key ingredient is takeout: This is a fast casual italian / pizza restaurant. I find fast casual restaurants doing just fine in my area. It's traditional sit downs that are struggling.
  - thaumasiotes 7y ago
    Is the change something that can be stabilized? Or when people have the option to eat out again, will delivery-only restaurants suffer too much from competition with eat-in restaurants? (Assuming there's some level of customer preference for eating in?) Now I'm curious about pizza places. Most pizza places offer seating. But I feel like Domino's might in fact be delivery-only.
  - duxup 7y ago
    I think fast casual already did that and going say delivery only ... might be a dead end for most small businesses. Especially as folks get out of their homes and WANT to be out and about ;)
  - itronitron 7y ago
    My personal experience has been that quality of restaurant/food/dining experience has always been negatively correlated with number of tables, or even total sq. ft.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - wil421 7y ago
    Almost every restaurant owner I know is about to fold or taking emergency loans. From people with several franchised sandwich shops to stand alone restaurants. Who is reporting profits are up?
    - bitbuilder 7y ago
      I'm guessing they're confusing profit and margin. It wouldn't surprise me if margins were higher now, but I have a hard time believing overall profits are up, anywhere. Especially when you consider a lot of restaurants make a good chunk of their profit on alcohol sales. While many are offering alcohol to go, I think most of us are picking it up from the corner store instead.
    - kamarg 7y ago
      Anecdotally, the owner of one of the nearby pizza places mentioned that both profits and margins are up for her. Of course pizza places historically have a large amount of delivery already. I imagine the current crisis has driven more customers to them at the expense of places that are traditionally dine-in only.
  - bluedino 7y ago
    They might be making more money on sales vs staff right now but anyone who has a rent payment isn't going to cover it with takeout alone.
    - greedo 7y ago
      For most major fast food franchises, the drive through constitutes a majority of the food sales. Labor also constitutes the largest line item on a P&L, so if you can work it right, you might be able to make it work. Especially if you're getting assistance (in the form of suspended franchise/royalty fees).
    - bluedino 7y ago
      Cheesecake Factory can't make rent this month - https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-april-rent-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-a...
  - Jupe 7y ago
    Of course there's less overhead, they are employing fewer people (or drastically reducing paid hours for employees). That's kind of the point of the parent article.
  - sbuttgereit 7y ago
    Did his business already have a robust take-out business? If so, I wouldn't be surprised by this comment. I would expect revenues, for awhile, to be the same or even increase... though as individual customers circumstances turn less certain I would expect that to decline over time. Certainly there's less labor overhead, and slightly less expense for utilities, cleaning supplies, etc. But larger pieces, like rents, would remain the same absent some sort of accommodation for the crisis. A business that didn't have a robust take-out business prior to the crisis I would expect to fare worse. You'd have to do things like get the word out that you are a take out business for one... and some couldn't likely make that transition. Would you order fine dining take out? Sure the food might be good, but half the reason to go to a good restaurant, rather than a cheaper one, is the service.
phasnox 7y ago
This. It makes you wonder how much long the confinement can really last.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick. You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely, and they won't.
  - SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
    I think the next couple of weeks are going to be eye opening - we're going to get a lot of reports of deaths, even of the young and healthy, which we're already seeing. That should steel the collective resolve to last a while here. People are talking of lifting the restrictions and our collective endurance and things have barely gotten going. It's really complaining about the length of the red light when it's just turned yellow. Naturally people aren't going hole up for a year, but we have to stop acting antsy when we've been in our houses a week or two. Edit: I'm assuming the government does its job and takes care of its people so that they can do the right thing here.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      > Naturally people aren't going hole up for a year, but we have to stop acting antsy when we've been in our houses a week or two. It's natural to be antsy if you've lost your job, have no social safety net, and can't pay for food or your rent. Either pay them to stay home, or don't be surprised when they leave to attempt to make a living to survive. They're already at risk of being homeless and destitute, so COVID matters much less to them. And I don't blame them.
      - SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
op03 7y ago
Things stop all the time. You just need to find the right event for comparison. In this case probably the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or the 2011 East Japan Earthquake (Tsunami, Fukushima Nuke plant etc)
- sbuttgereit 7y ago
  I don't think that comparison works. There, you had relatively short duration disasters where very soon afterwards, coordinated efforts were dedicated to putting the pieces back together. Now, most of the press and leadership seems to be thinking only about how to manage the health related consequences of an ongoing crisis. I really don't hear anyone strategizing how to put the pieces back together or how to contain the crisis (note that I did not say contain the disease) so things don't fall apart so completely. There is a profound absence of thought amongst those in decision-making positions, at least insofar as I can see.
- tathougies 7y ago
  So they don't stop all the time. Those events you gave did not cause 3 billion people to be forced to stay at home. A tsunami or earthquake is isolated to a particular place. It may affect a few million. This is a different order of magnitude
- RandomBacon 7y ago
  Everyone can go right back to work after the event is over in a few minutes. This more comparable to a nuclear bomb where the area is still radioactive and people cannot go back without PPE. Edit: and like another reply said, this isn't local, so it's more like multiple nuclear bombs in multiple countries across the globe.

by wil421 7y ago

duxup 7y ago

>Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. Yeah I've been doing a fair amount of takeout and places where you had dozens of people ... operating with two or three people now.

alharith 7y ago
My brother is a restaurant owner and reports that despite volume being down, profit is up due to less overhead. Others in the restaurant industry are reporting the same. When we come out on the other side of this, I think a lot of businesses are going to rethink a lot of things they held on to as infallible truths. Sorry as many mentioned, yes the key ingredient is takeout: This is a fast casual italian / pizza restaurant. I find fast casual restaurants doing just fine in my area. It's traditional sit downs that are struggling.
- thaumasiotes 7y ago
  Is the change something that can be stabilized? Or when people have the option to eat out again, will delivery-only restaurants suffer too much from competition with eat-in restaurants? (Assuming there's some level of customer preference for eating in?) Now I'm curious about pizza places. Most pizza places offer seating. But I feel like Domino's might in fact be delivery-only.
- duxup 7y ago
  I think fast casual already did that and going say delivery only ... might be a dead end for most small businesses. Especially as folks get out of their homes and WANT to be out and about ;)
- itronitron 7y ago
  My personal experience has been that quality of restaurant/food/dining experience has always been negatively correlated with number of tables, or even total sq. ft.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- wil421 7y ago
  Almost every restaurant owner I know is about to fold or taking emergency loans. From people with several franchised sandwich shops to stand alone restaurants. Who is reporting profits are up?
  - bitbuilder 7y ago
    I'm guessing they're confusing profit and margin. It wouldn't surprise me if margins were higher now, but I have a hard time believing overall profits are up, anywhere. Especially when you consider a lot of restaurants make a good chunk of their profit on alcohol sales. While many are offering alcohol to go, I think most of us are picking it up from the corner store instead.
  - kamarg 7y ago
    Anecdotally, the owner of one of the nearby pizza places mentioned that both profits and margins are up for her. Of course pizza places historically have a large amount of delivery already. I imagine the current crisis has driven more customers to them at the expense of places that are traditionally dine-in only.
- bluedino 7y ago
  They might be making more money on sales vs staff right now but anyone who has a rent payment isn't going to cover it with takeout alone.
  - greedo 7y ago
    For most major fast food franchises, the drive through constitutes a majority of the food sales. Labor also constitutes the largest line item on a P&L, so if you can work it right, you might be able to make it work. Especially if you're getting assistance (in the form of suspended franchise/royalty fees).
  - bluedino 7y ago
    Cheesecake Factory can't make rent this month - https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-april-rent-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-a...
- Jupe 7y ago
  Of course there's less overhead, they are employing fewer people (or drastically reducing paid hours for employees). That's kind of the point of the parent article.
- sbuttgereit 7y ago
  Did his business already have a robust take-out business? If so, I wouldn't be surprised by this comment. I would expect revenues, for awhile, to be the same or even increase... though as individual customers circumstances turn less certain I would expect that to decline over time. Certainly there's less labor overhead, and slightly less expense for utilities, cleaning supplies, etc. But larger pieces, like rents, would remain the same absent some sort of accommodation for the crisis. A business that didn't have a robust take-out business prior to the crisis I would expect to fare worse. You'd have to do things like get the word out that you are a take out business for one... and some couldn't likely make that transition. Would you order fine dining take out? Sure the food might be good, but half the reason to go to a good restaurant, rather than a cheaper one, is the service.

phasnox 7y ago

This. It makes you wonder how much long the confinement can really last.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick. You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely, and they won't.
- SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
  I think the next couple of weeks are going to be eye opening - we're going to get a lot of reports of deaths, even of the young and healthy, which we're already seeing. That should steel the collective resolve to last a while here. People are talking of lifting the restrictions and our collective endurance and things have barely gotten going. It's really complaining about the length of the red light when it's just turned yellow. Naturally people aren't going hole up for a year, but we have to stop acting antsy when we've been in our houses a week or two. Edit: I'm assuming the government does its job and takes care of its people so that they can do the right thing here.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    > Naturally people aren't going hole up for a year, but we have to stop acting antsy when we've been in our houses a week or two. It's natural to be antsy if you've lost your job, have no social safety net, and can't pay for food or your rent. Either pay them to stay home, or don't be surprised when they leave to attempt to make a living to survive. They're already at risk of being homeless and destitute, so COVID matters much less to them. And I don't blame them.
    - SketchySeaBeast 7y ago

op03 7y ago

Things stop all the time. You just need to find the right event for comparison. In this case probably the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or the 2011 East Japan Earthquake (Tsunami, Fukushima Nuke plant etc)

sbuttgereit 7y ago
I don't think that comparison works. There, you had relatively short duration disasters where very soon afterwards, coordinated efforts were dedicated to putting the pieces back together. Now, most of the press and leadership seems to be thinking only about how to manage the health related consequences of an ongoing crisis. I really don't hear anyone strategizing how to put the pieces back together or how to contain the crisis (note that I did not say contain the disease) so things don't fall apart so completely. There is a profound absence of thought amongst those in decision-making positions, at least insofar as I can see.
tathougies 7y ago
So they don't stop all the time. Those events you gave did not cause 3 billion people to be forced to stay at home. A tsunami or earthquake is isolated to a particular place. It may affect a few million. This is a different order of magnitude
RandomBacon 7y ago
Everyone can go right back to work after the event is over in a few minutes. This more comparable to a nuclear bomb where the area is still radioactive and people cannot go back without PPE. Edit: and like another reply said, this isn't local, so it's more like multiple nuclear bombs in multiple countries across the globe.