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Won't know for sure until Apr 03 (The Day BLS releases the official unemployment rate for March) but this may very well trip the Sahm recession indicator, which
by scottLobster 7y ago
Won't know for sure until Apr 03 (The Day BLS releases the official unemployment rate for March) but this may very well trip the Sahm recession indicator, which has correctly predicted/detected every US recession back to 1950 (If it's been further backfitted I can't find the data).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
- yread 7y agoI don't think you need a black magic/AI/fancy algorithm to tell whether there is a recession or not
- scottLobster 7y agoNo, but it's nice to have some confirmation :)