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Welcome to the Great Depression of the 21st century.
by 1zael 7y ago
Welcome to the Great Depression of the 21st century.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoThings are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. The big problem with the great depression was not the size of the crash but the duration of the recovery. Our view of the money supply seems a bit more effective these days and it seems unlikely that the recession that comes out of this situation will last as long.
- PaulRobinson 7y agoLike you say, things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. If you think this is all over in anything less than 4-5 years in terms of economic impact, I don't think you've understood what has really just happened and is about to happen.
- jeltz 7y agoI do not think anyone knows how long the recovery will take, not even the experts.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoThere are indicators from past problems, though. One example I've seen is that it took 17 years for airlines to recover after 9/11[0]. -- [0] - https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-stocks-recover-september-11-911-losses-2017-6?IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-stocks-recover-septe...
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoI'm guessing that index does not capture total return. For example, DAL has offered ~2-3% annual dividends at least since 2013, which adds up to a pretty substantial difference to between total return and asset price if reinvested. It's not clear if that's when they resumed dividends or if Yahoo Finance just doesn't have data going back further.
- aguyfromnb 7y agoWhy don't you do the calculation then, instead of dismissing an article/calculation based on something you're not even sure is true?
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoYou want me to . . . hand-calculate market-weighted total return of an index? Without access to the underlying financials? That's a big ask for an internet comment. I didn't dismiss the article. I provided additional context that might be helpful in evaluating its claims. You are free to do with that what you will. https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/indices/nyse_arca_global_airline_index.pdf https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/indices/nyse_arca_globa... "The Index tracks the price performance ..." suggests that my surmise is correct, at least for the global version of this index.
- graeme 7y ago> You want me to . . . hand-calculate market-weighted total return of an index? Without access to the underlying financials? That's a big ask for an internet comment. Here’s a handy tool to do just that! Unfortunately only goes back to 2007, so not useful in present case of airline stocks. But a very useful tool. https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>That's a big ask for an internet comment. So your solution is to "guess" that it didn't happen? >I didn't dismiss the article. I provided additional context that might be helpful in evaluating its claims. You didn't add anything. You insinuated that it wasn't correct, with zero evidence or knowledge. Why didn't you add other things, like maybe the journalist made the entire thing up? Or perhaps the whole measure of the index is simply a lie and doesn't exist? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that people here consider random aspersions "adding context".
- lonelappde 7y agoEconomic "experts" usually don't know anything about the future.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoI think my understanding of the current situation is about as good as any layperson. I have been following closely, I called all the policy changes in my state to within a day or two, etc. I don't think that the evidence on what will happen next is so clear that all right-thinking people will come to the same conclusions, as you imply.
- 1zael 7y agoIt's not an exaggeration. You should take the macroeconomic effect seriously. This is the first major recession in over 100 years caused by an external market factor. Factor in 18 months for vaccine clinical trials and distribution, 1-2 years for industries to get back on their feet, and slews of international policy regressions...you're looking at a 4-5 year impact. Not to mention, social distancing is really taking a mental toll on the world population, regrettably giving more weight to the word "Depression."
- aguyfromnb 7y agoThe Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses estimated yesterday that 30% of small business might not survive the quarantine. I'm with you; people are underestimating the last impact of this pandemic.
- djsumdog 7y agowe have better communication and technology today as well. The trouble is, we have no idea when recovery will even begin. The human spirit can move past this; but many people can't even begin right now.
- cm2187 7y agoFrom what I read from various economists, it looks like it will likely be worse than 2008. So it may not be as bad as 1929 but it will still hurt.