4 ms·

How did you come to the .5% death rate after 3 weeks assumption?

sadfklsjlkjwt 7y ago
It is not an assumption just arithmetic. Median time to first symptom is 6 days. Median time from first symptom to hospitalization is 5-7 days. Median time to death is about 7 days. Add them up and the median time from contact to death is about 3 weeks.
robocat 7y ago
Pick whatever numbers you think are reasonable based on the data you have read - I think you will end up with a worrying result. I use this analysis because the number of deaths is hard to fudge, and the fatality rate after x days, and the infection rate are somewhat measurable (I believe there are statistically valid measurements of those numbers). Any analysis based upon detected cases is deeply flawed IMHO, because detected cases can be anything (look at different countries with wildly different values with no basis in reality).
- logicallee 7y ago
  The number of deaths is hard to judge but as for >Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore: ... you're not allowed to assume that. It means on April 26th two thirds of all Americans (204.8 million）will be infected.
  - PeterisP 7y ago
    You can assume that as long as you're far below saturation. Yes, the logistic curve comes to play at some point, slowing down the spread, stopping at some large proportion of the population - it's plausible that two thirds of Americans will be infected, but that will take longer. However, until the total number of infected is less than, say, 10% of total population, it certainly makes sense to just use the average doubling rate.
PeterisP 7y ago
It's roughly consistent with the data from South Korea which was quite liberal with testing potential cases based on contact tracing (so they have records of also the infected but asymptomatic or very mild symptomatic carriers) and they got 0.6%-0.7% case fatality rate, and the median time from infection to death is something like 3 weeks. You get a much higher fatality rate if you're testing only people with severe symptoms or those who get hospitalized, which is what many countries are doing. For example, if you have mild symptoms, UK health service will tell you to isolate at home and call them for hospitalizatin if you get worse, and you'll get tested only if that happens. You also get a much higher fatality rate if hospitals are overloaded and people can't get proper lifesaving treatment, which wasn't the case yet in USA, so an estimate based on these numbers seems reasonable now.

It is not an assumption just arithmetic. Median time to first symptom is 6 days. Median time from first symptom to hospitalization is 5-7 days. Median time to death is about 7 days. Add them up and the median time from contact to death is about 3 weeks.

robocat 7y ago

Pick whatever numbers you think are reasonable based on the data you have read - I think you will end up with a worrying result. I use this analysis because the number of deaths is hard to fudge, and the fatality rate after x days, and the infection rate are somewhat measurable (I believe there are statistically valid measurements of those numbers). Any analysis based upon detected cases is deeply flawed IMHO, because detected cases can be anything (look at different countries with wildly different values with no basis in reality).

logicallee 7y ago
The number of deaths is hard to judge but as for >Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore: ... you're not allowed to assume that. It means on April 26th two thirds of all Americans (204.8 million）will be infected.
- PeterisP 7y ago
  You can assume that as long as you're far below saturation. Yes, the logistic curve comes to play at some point, slowing down the spread, stopping at some large proportion of the population - it's plausible that two thirds of Americans will be infected, but that will take longer. However, until the total number of infected is less than, say, 10% of total population, it certainly makes sense to just use the average doubling rate.

PeterisP 7y ago

It's roughly consistent with the data from South Korea which was quite liberal with testing potential cases based on contact tracing (so they have records of also the infected but asymptomatic or very mild symptomatic carriers) and they got 0.6%-0.7% case fatality rate, and the median time from infection to death is something like 3 weeks. You get a much higher fatality rate if you're testing only people with severe symptoms or those who get hospitalized, which is what many countries are doing. For example, if you have mild symptoms, UK health service will tell you to isolate at home and call them for hospitalizatin if you get worse, and you'll get tested only if that happens. You also get a much higher fatality rate if hospitals are overloaded and people can't get proper lifesaving treatment, which wasn't the case yet in USA, so an estimate based on these numbers seems reasonable now.