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This whole argument is frustrating and annoying to me. I know that we're obsessed with "data" and "increase the sample size" on this website, but those things t

This whole argument is frustrating and annoying to me. I know that we're obsessed with "data" and "increase the sample size" on this website, but those things take a lot of time. And, given that my parents are old and have at least one factor that make them "high risk", I've started to reevaluate my priors on constantly insisting on more and more data before I make a decision. Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong ... they all wear masks to some extent, normally in non-pandemic periods. They now do it at scale. They're at the bottom of the barrel in cases today (Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying). So, perhaps we should just start wearing masks. It costs nothing, assuming it's possible to get them, though for whatever reason our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN - exclaimed that wearing a mask "does nothing". And one of the results of everyone telling us back in January and February that "masks do nothing" is that we're now 2 months behind procuring a cheap item that could actually do a lot of good. What a damn shame.

yitchelle 7y ago
I think that wearing a mask is good but it is not the silver bullet. Actually any form of physical barrier to stop the transmission will help, including social distancing (God! I hate that phrase but everyone knows what that means). It is like software development, preventing the cause is much less impacting to our lives than debugging the cause.
bibabaloo 7y ago
> our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN - exclaimed that wearing a mask "does nothing". I'm fairly convinced that the messaging behind the "masks don't do anything" rhetoric is to prevent a shortage to people who need them. Yeah, everyone wearing masks would probably effectively slow the virus but if there's known supply chain issues and everyone stocking up would cause availability issues for doctors & nurses, then we have to take the lesser evil.
- remarkEon 7y ago
  Yeah, but if everyone started wearing masks back in early February in New York City there wouldn't be overloaded hospitals in Queens today on March 25th, now would there.
  - lonelappde 7y ago
    There weren't masks to wear.
    - anonsubmit2671 7y ago
      True, but that itself is a symptom of bigger problems. The problem isn't which people should or shouldn't have masks. The problem is a lack of supply chain capacity and inventory, and the SNS should have 6 billion masks and 100k ventilators. Lying to people doesn't help public health or fix the problems of the federal government failing to act. The AARC told HHS to get their act together about the SNS on ventilators, but the govt didn't.
    - slazaro 7y ago
      In the tweet linked, they explain that in the Czech Republic there's been a social movement around making your own masks, giving them out, etc.
      - scruple 7y ago
        It's here in the US, too, but on a much reduced scale. My wife made some masks to hand out, getting the idea from her cousin who was putting her children who are not in school to work making masks for donation.
    - Polylactic_acid 7y ago
      You could easily build your own masks out of stuff at home which would be better than nothing.
- mike_d 7y ago
  The split of "they don't do anything" and "hospitals need them" made no sense to Americans so they ignored both messages.
- FeepingCreature 7y ago
  Yeah but the effect is a diminished trust in experts. Which is why noble lies are toxic. Like, nobody who said that masks can't help has grounds to complain about accusations of "fake news" ever again.
  - joaomacp 7y ago
    People's decisions today are so influenced by media that fake news become acceptable (like white lies). Media has to act as the Catholic Church did in ancient times. It has to make up some stories to control people's behavior. Toilet paper is an example of this: you talk about a shortage, and people will buy more. They don't believe it's really necessary, but since they know other people are buying and the media is talking about it, even smart people understand demand will increase and stocks will fall, so they buy more. Same with masks: if you tell people "they work, but don't buy them" it will have the exact opposite effect. In China and other Eastern countries, this is dealt with by causing fear in people: "if I buy a lot of masks and the state finds out, I'll be in trouble". We don't have that tool in free Western countries. So media manipulation becomes the only effective tool for behavior control.
  - anonsubmit2671 7y ago
    When manufacturing consent is broken because the lies are so obvious.
lukasm 7y ago
Pros: Reduce the droplets in the air May reduce panic/stress? Cons You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus. False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur Not enough masks for hospitals Its very likely they benefits outweigh the costs
- jshevek 7y ago
  I wear a mask and it doesn't increase my face touching. In fact, it reduces my face touching because it serves as a perpetual reminder of the situation. It may also signal to other people to keep their distance from me.
- watwut 7y ago
  My mask makes me less likely to touch face. > False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur I dont see people with masks being closer to each other then people without masks.
  - lukasm 7y ago
    "It's ok to visit my parents or neighbours, because I had a mask" "Its ok to sit next to my mate on the train because we had masks"
    - tarboreus 7y ago
      If anything, my experience is the opposite. If people slip into old habits they are reminded to keep a distance by the presence of a mask.
- remarkEon 7y ago
  Pros: all true Cons: Every single one of these is false, especially the face touching part. Folks, this is what I'm talking about so let's do this by the numbers. >You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk You touch your face less (read: zero) when in environments in which you're wearing the mask. And if you're wearing it in public places that's enormously important, since that is where you will get the virus. >Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus. The micro-environment of "your mouth and nose" is not going to breed any more virus than the environment around you that wants to inject the virus into your mouth and nose. >False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur [citation needed] >Not enough masks for hospitals And if we'd stopped lying about masks being effective back in early February perhaps we'd have enough of them by now. So let's stop lying about it now to make sure we have enough by May.
ex3ndr 7y ago
> I don't really understand why unless they're lying yep, hospitals are packed completely already.
watwut 7y ago
> our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN We should be open to the possibility that these are not our smartest people. Plus we should admit that there are smarter people outside of our bubble.
lonelappde 7y ago
Of course Russian government is lying. The Russians President has spent his whole adult life oppressing his own country and just made himself dictator for life.
andrenth 7y ago
> Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying Closed borders with China since January. Same as Mongolia.
rasz 7y ago
>Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying There is no coronavirus in Russia, just a bad spell of mass Pneumonia. In other news Putin just announced nationwide full pay week of 'holidays' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/putin-refuses-impose-lockdown-russia-offers-week-work/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/putin-refuses-im... nothing to see here folks, definitely no emergency

yitchelle 7y ago

I think that wearing a mask is good but it is not the silver bullet. Actually any form of physical barrier to stop the transmission will help, including social distancing (God! I hate that phrase but everyone knows what that means). It is like software development, preventing the cause is much less impacting to our lives than debugging the cause.

bibabaloo 7y ago

> our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN - exclaimed that wearing a mask "does nothing". I'm fairly convinced that the messaging behind the "masks don't do anything" rhetoric is to prevent a shortage to people who need them. Yeah, everyone wearing masks would probably effectively slow the virus but if there's known supply chain issues and everyone stocking up would cause availability issues for doctors & nurses, then we have to take the lesser evil.

remarkEon 7y ago
Yeah, but if everyone started wearing masks back in early February in New York City there wouldn't be overloaded hospitals in Queens today on March 25th, now would there.
- lonelappde 7y ago
  There weren't masks to wear.
  - anonsubmit2671 7y ago
    True, but that itself is a symptom of bigger problems. The problem isn't which people should or shouldn't have masks. The problem is a lack of supply chain capacity and inventory, and the SNS should have 6 billion masks and 100k ventilators. Lying to people doesn't help public health or fix the problems of the federal government failing to act. The AARC told HHS to get their act together about the SNS on ventilators, but the govt didn't.
  - slazaro 7y ago
    In the tweet linked, they explain that in the Czech Republic there's been a social movement around making your own masks, giving them out, etc.
    - scruple 7y ago
      It's here in the US, too, but on a much reduced scale. My wife made some masks to hand out, getting the idea from her cousin who was putting her children who are not in school to work making masks for donation.
  - Polylactic_acid 7y ago
    You could easily build your own masks out of stuff at home which would be better than nothing.
mike_d 7y ago
The split of "they don't do anything" and "hospitals need them" made no sense to Americans so they ignored both messages.
FeepingCreature 7y ago
Yeah but the effect is a diminished trust in experts. Which is why noble lies are toxic. Like, nobody who said that masks can't help has grounds to complain about accusations of "fake news" ever again.
- joaomacp 7y ago
  People's decisions today are so influenced by media that fake news become acceptable (like white lies). Media has to act as the Catholic Church did in ancient times. It has to make up some stories to control people's behavior. Toilet paper is an example of this: you talk about a shortage, and people will buy more. They don't believe it's really necessary, but since they know other people are buying and the media is talking about it, even smart people understand demand will increase and stocks will fall, so they buy more. Same with masks: if you tell people "they work, but don't buy them" it will have the exact opposite effect. In China and other Eastern countries, this is dealt with by causing fear in people: "if I buy a lot of masks and the state finds out, I'll be in trouble". We don't have that tool in free Western countries. So media manipulation becomes the only effective tool for behavior control.
- anonsubmit2671 7y ago
  When manufacturing consent is broken because the lies are so obvious.

lukasm 7y ago

Pros: Reduce the droplets in the air May reduce panic/stress? Cons You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus. False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur Not enough masks for hospitals Its very likely they benefits outweigh the costs

jshevek 7y ago
I wear a mask and it doesn't increase my face touching. In fact, it reduces my face touching because it serves as a perpetual reminder of the situation. It may also signal to other people to keep their distance from me.
watwut 7y ago
My mask makes me less likely to touch face. > False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur I dont see people with masks being closer to each other then people without masks.
- lukasm 7y ago
  "It's ok to visit my parents or neighbours, because I had a mask" "Its ok to sit next to my mate on the train because we had masks"
  - tarboreus 7y ago
    If anything, my experience is the opposite. If people slip into old habits they are reminded to keep a distance by the presence of a mask.
remarkEon 7y ago
Pros: all true Cons: Every single one of these is false, especially the face touching part. Folks, this is what I'm talking about so let's do this by the numbers. >You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk You touch your face less (read: zero) when in environments in which you're wearing the mask. And if you're wearing it in public places that's enormously important, since that is where you will get the virus. >Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus. The micro-environment of "your mouth and nose" is not going to breed any more virus than the environment around you that wants to inject the virus into your mouth and nose. >False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur [citation needed] >Not enough masks for hospitals And if we'd stopped lying about masks being effective back in early February perhaps we'd have enough of them by now. So let's stop lying about it now to make sure we have enough by May.

ex3ndr 7y ago

> I don't really understand why unless they're lying yep, hospitals are packed completely already.

watwut 7y ago

> our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN We should be open to the possibility that these are not our smartest people. Plus we should admit that there are smarter people outside of our bubble.

lonelappde 7y ago

Of course Russian government is lying. The Russians President has spent his whole adult life oppressing his own country and just made himself dictator for life.

andrenth 7y ago

> Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying Closed borders with China since January. Same as Mongolia.

rasz 7y ago

>Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying There is no coronavirus in Russia, just a bad spell of mass Pneumonia. In other news Putin just announced nationwide full pay week of 'holidays' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/putin-refuses-impose-lockdown-russia-offers-week-work/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/putin-refuses-im... nothing to see here folks, definitely no emergency