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This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like this. You could plan for your self-isolation in advance, so there wouldn't be a rush for supplies the way there is now; you would already know not to schedule anything for February; you'd probably still have to solve some money problems for a large number of people, since being able to WFH probably anti-correlates with living paycheck to paycheck. If you could actually eliminate -- or at least, dramatically reduce the incidence of -- common colds and seasonal flu through such a scheme, it would probably be worth both from a QoL standpoint for the everyone in the world (would you trade 3 weeks of cabin fever every four years for never having another actual fever?) and from an economic standpoint (three weeks of predictable low productivity is almost certainly better than the unpredictable constant costs associated with illness and death).

myself248 7y ago
I've theorized this about sexually transmitted diseases, too. It's even less realistic to imagine compliance, but suppose everyone only had sex with people who were born the same year as them. Any given disease would lose the ability to spread into younger people, and simply fall off the end of the age conveyor-belt.
- javagram 7y ago
  It’s pretty easy to stop STDs just by only ever having sex with 1 person, or more liberally, 1 person at a time and both getting tested before then. Having to go with the “same year” rule is probably harder than that.
  - Cogito 7y ago
    Small reminder that STIs are not just transmitted by 'sex', but also through other intimate acts like kissing. The only suggestion that seems remotely plausible is 'all participants getting tested first'. There are still issues with getting tested, as there are false negatives and it can be hard to get tested for all diseases, but this would dramatically reduce incident of STIs.
- stOneskull 7y ago
  I don't like embracing Big Brother
  - SuoDuanDao 7y ago
    You will learn to love him eventually >:)
    - dreamer7 7y ago
      [Off topic] I recently picked up 1984 again and finally managed to complete it this time. I read the last line with a mixture of relief and a tinge of disappointment. Until the very end, I was hoping for a Hollywood-style turnaround in the political situation.
      - SuoDuanDao 7y ago
        I probably would never have finished that book if it wasn't required for a high school English class, it wasn't a pleasant read. But I'm glad I read it, I feel like I've been inoculated against some of the worse political ideas being traded nowadays. It's kind of amazing to me to think that they must have been present in Orwell's day already.
- cycomanic 7y ago
  Or hey, let's try this radical idea to just have protected sex unless we have both been tested.
- Lewton 7y ago
  In an ideal world you wouldn't even have to go that far. Just say that anyone born before 2020 is not allowed to have sex with anyone born in 2020 or later
vidarh 7y ago
The difficulty of getting compliance even in the face of a scary new threat should give a good deal of indication of how hard it'd be. And the speed with which it spreads in a population that has little immunity against the current strain should be a good indication of how little you'd save.
- saalweachter 7y ago
  Eh, there may be a certain amount of truth to that, but personally I think it's one of the many fears that sci-fi has overplayed. Part of the problem we have in our war against infectious diseases is that they mutate in endless variety. The cold you catch tomorrow is slightly different than the cold you had last week; the variety of the seasonal flu spreading this year is different than the variety of last year. But these endless varieties are generated at a rate proportional to the available hosts. If we can successfully reduce the number of hosts available, we would also reduce the number varieties of colds and flu we have to contend with, and the rate at which new ones appear. Everyone not getting a little sick all the time might conceptually weaken our immune systems, but it would also weaken the diseases against we're fighting, and we would still have our other tools we use to fight them.
lukevdp 7y ago
> This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Very hard. We can’t even properly do it in the face of this pandemic.
timwaagh 7y ago
Economically you need to take into account that a lot of people barely get sick from flu. Certainly not two weeks a year.
- saalweachter 7y ago
  I mean, even if most people don't get sick enough to miss work for 2 weeks a year, 10 sick days a year is a pretty common number to give an employee, either by statute or as part of the benefits package. Even if they don't get used completely every year, most businesses are budgeting for their employees to be non-productive due to illness for two weeks each year. And obviously colds and flu aren't the only way people get sick and miss work, but if you could cut those two weeks per year to one week per year by having three weeks of quarantine every four years, that's a productivity win before you include the more predictable "nothing happens in February this year", the economic value of the lives saved, and the savings on healthcare spending on the people who don't get sick.
reilly3000 7y ago
I have a feeling that a lot of people will have happy memories from this time, except for those that have lost loved ones or facing the hell of trying to save those that are infected. I was talking about this today on a midday walk with my wife (which would have never been possible in other circumstances). With enough fond memories and fears of a repeat, an annual social distancing tradition may actually have the possibility of traction.
- underwater 7y ago
  Most people won't. Many average people are going to lose their jobs or business and go broke, or be cooped up in a tiny apartment for weeks and months. Some of us are lucky enough to be able to weather this without severe downsides. But we're in the minority.
  - benibela 7y ago
    I am on vacation and am having a great time. I have been cooped up in my apartment for three weeks and only left it four times to go to the grocery store. Finally I have some time to spend on my oss projects

myself248 7y ago

I've theorized this about sexually transmitted diseases, too. It's even less realistic to imagine compliance, but suppose everyone only had sex with people who were born the same year as them. Any given disease would lose the ability to spread into younger people, and simply fall off the end of the age conveyor-belt.

javagram 7y ago
It’s pretty easy to stop STDs just by only ever having sex with 1 person, or more liberally, 1 person at a time and both getting tested before then. Having to go with the “same year” rule is probably harder than that.
- Cogito 7y ago
  Small reminder that STIs are not just transmitted by 'sex', but also through other intimate acts like kissing. The only suggestion that seems remotely plausible is 'all participants getting tested first'. There are still issues with getting tested, as there are false negatives and it can be hard to get tested for all diseases, but this would dramatically reduce incident of STIs.
stOneskull 7y ago
I don't like embracing Big Brother
- SuoDuanDao 7y ago
  You will learn to love him eventually >:)
  - dreamer7 7y ago
    [Off topic] I recently picked up 1984 again and finally managed to complete it this time. I read the last line with a mixture of relief and a tinge of disappointment. Until the very end, I was hoping for a Hollywood-style turnaround in the political situation.
    - SuoDuanDao 7y ago
      I probably would never have finished that book if it wasn't required for a high school English class, it wasn't a pleasant read. But I'm glad I read it, I feel like I've been inoculated against some of the worse political ideas being traded nowadays. It's kind of amazing to me to think that they must have been present in Orwell's day already.
cycomanic 7y ago
Or hey, let's try this radical idea to just have protected sex unless we have both been tested.
Lewton 7y ago
In an ideal world you wouldn't even have to go that far. Just say that anyone born before 2020 is not allowed to have sex with anyone born in 2020 or later

vidarh 7y ago

The difficulty of getting compliance even in the face of a scary new threat should give a good deal of indication of how hard it'd be. And the speed with which it spreads in a population that has little immunity against the current strain should be a good indication of how little you'd save.

saalweachter 7y ago
Eh, there may be a certain amount of truth to that, but personally I think it's one of the many fears that sci-fi has overplayed. Part of the problem we have in our war against infectious diseases is that they mutate in endless variety. The cold you catch tomorrow is slightly different than the cold you had last week; the variety of the seasonal flu spreading this year is different than the variety of last year. But these endless varieties are generated at a rate proportional to the available hosts. If we can successfully reduce the number of hosts available, we would also reduce the number varieties of colds and flu we have to contend with, and the rate at which new ones appear. Everyone not getting a little sick all the time might conceptually weaken our immune systems, but it would also weaken the diseases against we're fighting, and we would still have our other tools we use to fight them.

lukevdp 7y ago

> This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Very hard. We can’t even properly do it in the face of this pandemic.

timwaagh 7y ago

Economically you need to take into account that a lot of people barely get sick from flu. Certainly not two weeks a year.

saalweachter 7y ago
I mean, even if most people don't get sick enough to miss work for 2 weeks a year, 10 sick days a year is a pretty common number to give an employee, either by statute or as part of the benefits package. Even if they don't get used completely every year, most businesses are budgeting for their employees to be non-productive due to illness for two weeks each year. And obviously colds and flu aren't the only way people get sick and miss work, but if you could cut those two weeks per year to one week per year by having three weeks of quarantine every four years, that's a productivity win before you include the more predictable "nothing happens in February this year", the economic value of the lives saved, and the savings on healthcare spending on the people who don't get sick.

reilly3000 7y ago

I have a feeling that a lot of people will have happy memories from this time, except for those that have lost loved ones or facing the hell of trying to save those that are infected. I was talking about this today on a midday walk with my wife (which would have never been possible in other circumstances). With enough fond memories and fears of a repeat, an annual social distancing tradition may actually have the possibility of traction.

underwater 7y ago
Most people won't. Many average people are going to lose their jobs or business and go broke, or be cooped up in a tiny apartment for weeks and months. Some of us are lucky enough to be able to weather this without severe downsides. But we're in the minority.
- benibela 7y ago
  I am on vacation and am having a great time. I have been cooped up in my apartment for three weeks and only left it four times to go to the grocery store. Finally I have some time to spend on my oss projects