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It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data t
by rossdavidh 7y ago
It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data to long-term users.
It seems implausible that there has not been a significant change in the health-consciousness of the typical purchaser in the last month or two, vs. prior to that. I can't tell you what the change would be, but I find it highly implausible that it would be not at all different, given the biggest spike in public awareness of a health issue in several decades.
It's nice to see that Dalziel has thought of the issue, but the article doesn't tell us much about _how_ he accounted for that. I could think of ways, but I could also think of ways to screw it up, and it doesn't say in this article how he "ensured" that the effect is real.
- dcftoapv 7y agoAgreed, but this study can certainly be used as part of a larger triangulation. A guy I worked with pointed out that this was happening in Japan about a month ago: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/21/national/influenza-wave-drastically-wanes-japan-amid-spread-coronavirus/#.XnxLlYhKiM8 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/21/national/influe...
- nonbel 7y agoBut who is going to go to a doctor/hospital for the flu when they are scared of catching sars2 there?
- peter_retief 7y agoThere has also been a decrease in traffic accidents and violent crime. This is data from hospital casualty units in South Africa
- nroets 7y agoMaybe it's not due social distancing, but the economic uncertainty.
- Swenrekcah 7y agoI’m purely guessing, but maybe the traffic deaths have decreased linearly with traffic, and violent crime in some porportion to gathering size. That is to say, that it’s due to less activity and not a changed mindset.
- ekianjo 7y agoI doubt traffic accidents and traffic have a linear correlation. I would assume it looks very different depending on the density of the traffic, i.e. not linear at all.