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The error bars on that 4% number are huge, I imagine. Like 4% - 2% or +15%. It's entirely possible you could get 4.9% with zero Covid-19 infections, just from n
by lukeschlather 7y ago
The error bars on that 4% number are huge, I imagine. Like 4% - 2% or +15%. It's entirely possible you could get 4.9% with zero Covid-19 infections, just from normal variation. Not only possible but I'm sure there's a month in the past decade which had more.
- onion2k 7y agoWhy would the error range be that high? We'd know about huge spikes like that through hospital data, insurance claims, and the sales of drugs, and there aren't spikes like that. The number of people who are ill is relatively stable year-on-year.
- lukeschlather 7y agoI'm not sure what you're basing your assertion on, but the estimated number of symptomatic flu illnesses ranges from 9.3 million to 45 million annually over the past decade, which as I said is roughly from between 3 and 15% of the US population. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html