4 ms·

Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a black swan event?

• PaulHoule 7y ago
  Yes
• haspoken 7y ago
  No From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Based on the author's criteria: 1) The event is a surprise (to the observer). 2) The event has a major effect. 3) After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. It fails on the surprise aspect. Pandemics are expected. Failure to prepare for them does not make it a surprise. List of epidemics from wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics