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> the fact the fatality rate goes up drastically if the medical system fails We all assume that this is so (and I hope it is), but this is not completely clear

> the fact the fatality rate goes up drastically if the medical system fails We all assume that this is so (and I hope it is), but this is not completely clear. It might be that for covid-19, help from the medical system doesn't matter much, given our current state of medical knowledge and care. And iatrogenic harm cannot be discounted. Certainly we cannot ethically run the experiment. As a single anecdatum, there was a (BBC?) piece on a hospital in the worst Italian region, showing a number of people on ventilators. The narrator explained that the staff was demoralized by the fact that everyone they had put on a ventilator died anyway.

watwut 7y ago
Italy has over larger fatality rate over identified cases then China had.
- m0zg 7y ago
  China "had" whatever comrade Xi allowed it to publish so that his "leadership" doesn't look too bad. I wouldn't put too much trust in that data. Edit: CCP comrades downvoting this, here's how "zero new cases" is being achieved in your country: https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/fosodi/covid19_patient_allegedly_being_escorted_out_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/fosodi/covi...
  - Stevvo 7y ago
    There is no mention of Coronavirus in that video. Someone took a random video of a dispute in a hospital and literally pulled the title out of thin air. That said, the no new cases sure does sound like bullshit.
    - m0zg 7y ago
      > no new cases sure does sound like bullshit As does 50-60 cases a day per 1.5 billion people when your test accuracy is pretty much a random number generator (as Spain has unfortunately found out when they received Chinese tests). I'd have a much easier time believing 5-7K new cases per day. For China that'd be the same as 1K per day for the US, which for us would be not an issue at all, if it kept steady.
pessimizer 7y ago
At the very least the fatality rate for non-coronavirus emergencies goes vastly up if the beds are filled with coronavirus sufferers.
- downerending 7y ago
  It's complicated. I vaguely recall a study that indicated that fatalities for some condition that might normally indicate surgery fell when the doctors needed were out of town for their annual conference. Don't recall the details. And also, we should hope that proper triage will mean that the non-coronavirus emergencies that matter will indeed be allocated a bed, etc. I have little doubt that this will be awful, but the counterfactual scenarios are difficult to evaluate.
- anonsubmit2671 7y ago
  That's true of all ICU beds. That's why some hospitals were completely converted to COVID only. The point is to separate them from regular ICU cases because COVID requires BSL3, which is significantly more work than regular patients. In China, this separation was often done well. Italian hospitals may not have had the preparation or resources to properly protect medical staff and other patients.

watwut 7y ago

Italy has over larger fatality rate over identified cases then China had.

m0zg 7y ago
China "had" whatever comrade Xi allowed it to publish so that his "leadership" doesn't look too bad. I wouldn't put too much trust in that data. Edit: CCP comrades downvoting this, here's how "zero new cases" is being achieved in your country: https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/fosodi/covid19_patient_allegedly_being_escorted_out_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/fosodi/covi...
- Stevvo 7y ago
  There is no mention of Coronavirus in that video. Someone took a random video of a dispute in a hospital and literally pulled the title out of thin air. That said, the no new cases sure does sound like bullshit.
  - m0zg 7y ago
    > no new cases sure does sound like bullshit As does 50-60 cases a day per 1.5 billion people when your test accuracy is pretty much a random number generator (as Spain has unfortunately found out when they received Chinese tests). I'd have a much easier time believing 5-7K new cases per day. For China that'd be the same as 1K per day for the US, which for us would be not an issue at all, if it kept steady.

pessimizer 7y ago

At the very least the fatality rate for non-coronavirus emergencies goes vastly up if the beds are filled with coronavirus sufferers.

downerending 7y ago
It's complicated. I vaguely recall a study that indicated that fatalities for some condition that might normally indicate surgery fell when the doctors needed were out of town for their annual conference. Don't recall the details. And also, we should hope that proper triage will mean that the non-coronavirus emergencies that matter will indeed be allocated a bed, etc. I have little doubt that this will be awful, but the counterfactual scenarios are difficult to evaluate.
anonsubmit2671 7y ago
That's true of all ICU beds. That's why some hospitals were completely converted to COVID only. The point is to separate them from regular ICU cases because COVID requires BSL3, which is significantly more work than regular patients. In China, this separation was often done well. Italian hospitals may not have had the preparation or resources to properly protect medical staff and other patients.