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I'm honestly surprised by any country that hasn't done this yet. Looking at NZ they have 200 cases today which means the real number of undetected cases there i

I'm honestly surprised by any country that hasn't done this yet. Looking at NZ they have 200 cases today which means the real number of undetected cases there is already some thousands. Everyone seems to be dragging their feet even though its crystal clear how this will play out in the short term.

Lerc 7y ago
The majority of those 200 cases are from international travelers who were already in self isolation after arrival in the country. They called the lockdown as soon as the first community transmission case was detected.
robocat 7y ago
> real number of undetected cases there is already some thousands Reference please (did you just make this number up?) For there to be 1024 cases in the community, 20 days ago there were 128 cases. Of those, between 5 and 20 would be hospitalised by now. I personally trust NZ has (a) tested hospitalised cases, (b) been honest in reporting cases, and (c) has been testing their contacts. One million kiwis live overseas (population left 5 million). So we have a huge number of returning kiwis that have the virus (that’s where the 200 comes from). Of course, NZ believes there is community transmission, that is why they have acted immediately on detection. They have closed down flights and roads, so if one town gets infected, people can’t leave and spread infection (a la Italy). Edit: They are actively teaching the concept of your social “bubble” which is a brilliant word and a critical thing everyone needs to know. We are still missing bandannas (it’s a respiratory disease - reduction in R0 helps massively), and we are still overplaying washing hands (this isn’t measles).
refurb 7y ago
Take a look at Singapore and Vietnam. They both had cases relatively under control. Then other countries started shutting down, so plenty of citizens returned. At least for Vietnam, every single one of their new cases for the past week or so have been international travelers arriving back home. I'd expect NZ to see a big jump in cases as well.

Lerc 7y ago

The majority of those 200 cases are from international travelers who were already in self isolation after arrival in the country. They called the lockdown as soon as the first community transmission case was detected.

robocat 7y ago

> real number of undetected cases there is already some thousands Reference please (did you just make this number up?) For there to be 1024 cases in the community, 20 days ago there were 128 cases. Of those, between 5 and 20 would be hospitalised by now. I personally trust NZ has (a) tested hospitalised cases, (b) been honest in reporting cases, and (c) has been testing their contacts. One million kiwis live overseas (population left 5 million). So we have a huge number of returning kiwis that have the virus (that’s where the 200 comes from). Of course, NZ believes there is community transmission, that is why they have acted immediately on detection. They have closed down flights and roads, so if one town gets infected, people can’t leave and spread infection (a la Italy). Edit: They are actively teaching the concept of your social “bubble” which is a brilliant word and a critical thing everyone needs to know. We are still missing bandannas (it’s a respiratory disease - reduction in R0 helps massively), and we are still overplaying washing hands (this isn’t measles).

refurb 7y ago

Take a look at Singapore and Vietnam. They both had cases relatively under control. Then other countries started shutting down, so plenty of citizens returned. At least for Vietnam, every single one of their new cases for the past week or so have been international travelers arriving back home. I'd expect NZ to see a big jump in cases as well.