3 ms·
The calculation for Germany is as follows (from [1]): - There are about 28k ICU beds in German - Usual occupancy is 80%, expectation is that 50% can be reserv
by pintxo 7y ago
The calculation for Germany is as follows (from [1]):
- There are about 28k ICU beds in German
- Usual occupancy is 80%, expectation is that 50% can be reserved for Covid-19 patients by delaying elective medical actions
- This gives us 14k ICU beds to treat Covid-19 patients
- Estimate is that about 5% of all infected will require about 7 days of ICU treatment
- This tells us, we can at most have 2k new patients requiring ICU treatment per day
- Knowing that the 2k are only 5% of total cases, the number of infected the health care system can take care of is 40k/day.
Obviously this calculation will change with more precise information about the estimated numbers.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx11Y4xjDwA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx11Y4xjDwA (sorry, German only)
- s9w 7y agoWell we would need 2000 days of those 2k days to even reach 50% infection of the total population. That is simply not possible to sustain with these extreme measures.
- wool_gather 7y agoEverybody and their brother is working on finding treatments. You're right, but the quarantines are stalling for time, in the hope that we can knock something off that 5%/7 days hospitalization figure.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoThat’s exactly right. On the other side of the shutdown, you need to do proactive screening and quarantining people who came in contact with sick people to create the conditions where you can safely ease the shutdown. Absent that, there’s not much point of the shutdown. I guess it buys time for medical professionals to retrain and gather supplies, which is crucial.