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Is anybody able to explain why there are so few new Corona cases in China? I mean, I know that the Wuhan area was locked down and that this way the outbreak was

Is anybody able to explain why there are so few new Corona cases in China? I mean, I know that the Wuhan area was locked down and that this way the outbreak was contained there. But China is far greater than Wuhan alone, and just like the virus was able to spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world, it must have spread to the rest of China as well. And during the recent month it must even have been spreading back from over the border into China. How come that there are nevertheless only between 40 and 50 new cases per day?

pdm55 7y ago
Measures in Nanjing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=youtu.be Procedures at Zhejiang Hospital (zero fatalities) https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf?spm=a3c0i.14138300.8102420620.download.5da1647fUkZuXY&file=Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Pre...
Juliate 7y ago
Given how widely differently active cases are asserted (different methods of testing, different capacity of testing, different politics towards testing), and how widely they are also well asserted, this figure has little meaning but for local forecasts; not for comparison between countries. On the other hand, ICU cases, and deaths cases seem more relevant.
ekr 7y ago
Very good question, I would too like to hear thoughts on this. My first impression was that the data was simply not being updated anymore. The change was too abrupt, simply doesn't seem natural. Is it likely that the Chinese are giving false data / simply not testing as thoroughly anymore?
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  There's every indication that a strict, extensive test and quarantine process can work to limit the spread of the virus, and China's been doing exactly that. I'd expect pockets to crop up here and there, but they know how to shut them down once detected, and have the oppressive infrastructure in place to do so.
- throwaway55554 7y ago
  Right? The virus has to have a host. With people able to leave their homes and move about, it seems that the number of cases are just going to return to increasing now.
pengstrom 7y ago
The PRC government is known to be flexible with the truth. They could simply be lying.
sorenn111 7y ago
Not to be conspiratorial, but China has a vested interest in seeming as if they've beaten the virus both to their own people and the world abroad. Their lockdown clearly had a strong effect, but after its over the virus will spread again. With that said, I don't see any reason why China would share their numbers. They have a history of lying about this disease, I don't know why we should assume we can trust their data now.
- samename 7y ago
  Indeed. China's numbers aren't to be trusted. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-23/despite-official-figures-wuhan-continues-to-find-new-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-daily-101532880.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-23/despite-official-fig...
  - artursapek 7y ago
    No country's numbers of confirmed cases should really be treated as a definitive and accurate view of total number of cases. UK was estimating theirs was off by a factor of 10-20 not long ago. The lack of testing has resulted in very incomplete data around the world, whether or not there's a political motive behind that.
    - taborj 7y ago
      Agreed. I have some friends here who are fairly certain they had it, based on symptoms. However, the hospital refused to test them because they were "young and healthy" (i.e. no underlying medical conditions to complicate things). 2 of the 3 family members recovered with no outside assistance; the third worsened, so they took her to the ER. Only then did they run a test on her. The number of infected is way off, which will throw everything else off. You can't figure out mortality rates, infection rates, etc if you don't have an accurate number to start with. Garbage in, garbage out.
      - artursapek 7y ago
        I've been saying for a couple weeks that the mortality rate will turn out to be much much lower if/when we ever get proper data on this. Probably very close to the common flu (0.1-0.2%). But the media companies are all having a great time scaring everyone with their 3% figure in the meantime.
alexandercrohde 7y ago
Great question, and I'm glad I'm not the only one wondering this. It seems hard to believe that in a situation where almost every single country has it that somehow China kept it confined to one province... Obviously they censor their news and social media, so any information coming from them is questionable to begin with. Other than incorrect numbers, the second most likely possibility is that they found some effective treatment.
adrianN 7y ago
They implemented very harsh measures that are currently unthinkable in western countries.
- misja111 7y ago
  In Spain and Italy the police is patrolling the streets and everybody who is outside without a valid reason can get a fine. Still the virus is spreading like crazy.
  - drclau 7y ago
    The virus spread _before_ the quarantine became serious enough. People just didn't take the quarantine seriously. I live in Czech Republic, and I read in the news that some 16.5k Czechs went on vacation to Northern Italy _after_ knowing about the risks. Now we're all in quarantine, with plenty of restrictions. Numbers of infections are still very low, but so is the number of tests that were done. People just did not take Covid-19 seriously.
    - misja111 7y ago
      In Italy the national lockdown was announced on March 9th, so 16 days ago. Today Italy reported 5210 new infections. So the government measures might have some effect, but nothing like in China. I don't live in Italy so for me it's hard to judge, but could the difference in efficacy maybe be explained by the discipline of the people?
  - dnhz 7y ago
    One difference is the timing. Lockdown in Spain and Italy happened too late. Also is it still spreading or are the new cases the result of the incubation period for the disease?
  - adrianN 7y ago
    It takes like two weeks between measures being taken and them having an effect on the number of confirmed infections.
LeonM 7y ago
I expect the numbers are all just propaganda. A week ago there were videos released of the makeshift hospital in Wuhan, where all beds were empty and the doctors were standing in front of the empty hospital taking off their face masks, smiling. Soon after, videos were uploaded by locals showing a very different situation. Disclaimer: This is my own opinion. The only sources I have for this are the same as yours: social media. So, take stuff with a grain of salt, do your own research and make your own conclusion.
- mistermann 7y ago
  Where can a person find such videos? You believe they were legitimate, and truly occurred after success had been declared?
- baron_harkonnen 7y ago
  I know plenty of people living in mainland China. Their recover is really not just propaganda. People across the country have been in their homes for months and were quick to cancel all sorts of social events. Speaking frequently with people living there things do seem to have recovered and life is starting to return to normal.
learc83 7y ago
Number of cases is unreliable because of how few tests are being done even in a place like China. However, number of deaths is likely more accurate. Some places like Vietnam, and even Washington state have somehow managed to have a very slow growing number of deaths despite likely having community spread before Italy did.
dear 7y ago
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/despite-official-figures-wuhan-continues-to-find-new-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/despite-official...
eezurr 7y ago
These two videos show how organized and committed China is to containing this virus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehCnbW4FAhg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehCnbW4FAhg Brief: - Your temperature is checked before entering any store/restaurant/tourist attraction/(sometimes) leaving your neighborhood/(sometimes) at a road block. You must scan a QR code so your location is logged. - Restaurant workers and public servants are suited up in light haz mat gear. - Entire neighborhoods have literally been walled off with just one entrance where your temperature must be checked to enter/exit. - Hotels have shut off central air to prevent the spread - Ordering food is touch free - Elevators have tissue paper so there's no direct contact with the buttons - Offices can only reopen once they have a Covid-19 plan, hand sanitizer, gloves, touch free thermometer, masks, etc. Each employee must log how they got to work. - much more in the links
- weinzierl 7y ago
  The most striking difference is apparently the amount of testing China allegedly does. For lack of a better source scroll down to the graph in the middle here [1]. If anyone has credible data to confirm or deny I'd be interested. [1] https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/corona...
skybrian 7y ago
I don't know, but you should also be wondering why it isn't worse in Japan. There are some obvious ideas like bows instead of handshakes, but it doesn't seem fully explained.
drclau 7y ago
In my opinion, the quarantine just worked. Here's my thinking. We know the following (maybe my information is not entirely correct, but the reasoning is still valid): 1) a host is infectious for about 14d; 2) the virus survives on surfaces/objects for 9d (this is based on other coronaviruses, but a more recent study suggests it's shorter). If you want to stop the spread, or reduce it significantly, you need to quarantine people for at least 2 x 14d + 9d. Why is that? Because, the first infected in each household will stay so for the 14d, and assuming all the other members of the household are infected by the first person, and assuming the infection happens towards the end of the first 14d, for safety, you need another 14d. Plus, you want to make sure the virus is not still active via surfaces/objects, so plus up to 9d. If you go further and assume that not everyone is infected by the first person to have the virus in the household - so you will have multiple generations of infections - then you need to add maybe another 14d. And so on. China did some 2 months of quarantine. Chances are very high they actually succeeded in reducing significantly the number of active cases. No need to appeal to conspiracy theories at this point. Why do we see a resurgence of cases? Because the 14d is just the avg. Some people reportedly can be sick for longer, many can be sick without having serious symptoms, some people don't respect fully the quarantine etc. Because of this, stopping it permanently is going to be very difficult via quarantine alone.
pelario 7y ago
Shangai was in full lock down when there were less than a hundred confirmed cases. This is far more drastic than what any western country have done. If you are skeptic about China's data (which is a fair objection), you can also look at the Japan process.
guugftg45664 7y ago
People are very determined and cooperative. My parents are in China, basically after 2,3 days since it began it’s all over the news and people got serious about it. My hometown, which is a small city in southern China, people are very cooperative and literally do not go outside as soon as the news broke out. I was also chatting with my parents daily as well to ensure they were at home. I wouldn’t trust the numbers completely as well but I think at least the curve makes sense.
YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
According to the article, China has instituted "one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen": By contrast, three weeks after the first known case of the disease now known as COVID-19, China had notified the WHO of a spike in cases of a pneumonia-like disease. Two weeks after that, the coronavirus had been isolated, genetically sequenced, and a diagnostic test developed, giving China the tools it needed to launch one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen. If "one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen" has not resulted in contaiment and the virus has continued spreading, as your comment suggests, we will soon find out -and in a very unpleasant manner. Or, to not put too fine a point on it: in that case we're in deep shit.
- dear 7y ago
  That is exactly how the world got into this situation in the first place. China covered it up and basically said nothing to see there. And the world believed in them and didn't put on guard against them. Until the disease spread to other countries and they no longer could cover it up. Then they say "hey look you have it too!"
wuschel 7y ago
As far as I know, the way how cases were counted changed three times since the beginning of the pandemic in China. However, I have no idea about the accuracy of their measurements or degree of correct reporting.

pdm55 7y ago

Measures in Nanjing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=youtu.be Procedures at Zhejiang Hospital (zero fatalities) https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf?spm=a3c0i.14138300.8102420620.download.5da1647fUkZuXY&file=Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Pre...

Juliate 7y ago

Given how widely differently active cases are asserted (different methods of testing, different capacity of testing, different politics towards testing), and how widely they are also well asserted, this figure has little meaning but for local forecasts; not for comparison between countries. On the other hand, ICU cases, and deaths cases seem more relevant.

ekr 7y ago

Very good question, I would too like to hear thoughts on this. My first impression was that the data was simply not being updated anymore. The change was too abrupt, simply doesn't seem natural. Is it likely that the Chinese are giving false data / simply not testing as thoroughly anymore?

ceejayoz 7y ago
There's every indication that a strict, extensive test and quarantine process can work to limit the spread of the virus, and China's been doing exactly that. I'd expect pockets to crop up here and there, but they know how to shut them down once detected, and have the oppressive infrastructure in place to do so.
throwaway55554 7y ago
Right? The virus has to have a host. With people able to leave their homes and move about, it seems that the number of cases are just going to return to increasing now.

pengstrom 7y ago

The PRC government is known to be flexible with the truth. They could simply be lying.

sorenn111 7y ago

Not to be conspiratorial, but China has a vested interest in seeming as if they've beaten the virus both to their own people and the world abroad. Their lockdown clearly had a strong effect, but after its over the virus will spread again. With that said, I don't see any reason why China would share their numbers. They have a history of lying about this disease, I don't know why we should assume we can trust their data now.

samename 7y ago
Indeed. China's numbers aren't to be trusted. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-23/despite-official-figures-wuhan-continues-to-find-new-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-daily-101532880.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-23/despite-official-fig...
- artursapek 7y ago
  No country's numbers of confirmed cases should really be treated as a definitive and accurate view of total number of cases. UK was estimating theirs was off by a factor of 10-20 not long ago. The lack of testing has resulted in very incomplete data around the world, whether or not there's a political motive behind that.
  - taborj 7y ago
    Agreed. I have some friends here who are fairly certain they had it, based on symptoms. However, the hospital refused to test them because they were "young and healthy" (i.e. no underlying medical conditions to complicate things). 2 of the 3 family members recovered with no outside assistance; the third worsened, so they took her to the ER. Only then did they run a test on her. The number of infected is way off, which will throw everything else off. You can't figure out mortality rates, infection rates, etc if you don't have an accurate number to start with. Garbage in, garbage out.
    - artursapek 7y ago
      I've been saying for a couple weeks that the mortality rate will turn out to be much much lower if/when we ever get proper data on this. Probably very close to the common flu (0.1-0.2%). But the media companies are all having a great time scaring everyone with their 3% figure in the meantime.

alexandercrohde 7y ago

Great question, and I'm glad I'm not the only one wondering this. It seems hard to believe that in a situation where almost every single country has it that somehow China kept it confined to one province... Obviously they censor their news and social media, so any information coming from them is questionable to begin with. Other than incorrect numbers, the second most likely possibility is that they found some effective treatment.

adrianN 7y ago

They implemented very harsh measures that are currently unthinkable in western countries.

misja111 7y ago
In Spain and Italy the police is patrolling the streets and everybody who is outside without a valid reason can get a fine. Still the virus is spreading like crazy.
- drclau 7y ago
  The virus spread _before_ the quarantine became serious enough. People just didn't take the quarantine seriously. I live in Czech Republic, and I read in the news that some 16.5k Czechs went on vacation to Northern Italy _after_ knowing about the risks. Now we're all in quarantine, with plenty of restrictions. Numbers of infections are still very low, but so is the number of tests that were done. People just did not take Covid-19 seriously.
  - misja111 7y ago
    In Italy the national lockdown was announced on March 9th, so 16 days ago. Today Italy reported 5210 new infections. So the government measures might have some effect, but nothing like in China. I don't live in Italy so for me it's hard to judge, but could the difference in efficacy maybe be explained by the discipline of the people?
- dnhz 7y ago
  One difference is the timing. Lockdown in Spain and Italy happened too late. Also is it still spreading or are the new cases the result of the incubation period for the disease?
- adrianN 7y ago
  It takes like two weeks between measures being taken and them having an effect on the number of confirmed infections.

LeonM 7y ago

I expect the numbers are all just propaganda. A week ago there were videos released of the makeshift hospital in Wuhan, where all beds were empty and the doctors were standing in front of the empty hospital taking off their face masks, smiling. Soon after, videos were uploaded by locals showing a very different situation. Disclaimer: This is my own opinion. The only sources I have for this are the same as yours: social media. So, take stuff with a grain of salt, do your own research and make your own conclusion.

mistermann 7y ago
Where can a person find such videos? You believe they were legitimate, and truly occurred after success had been declared?
baron_harkonnen 7y ago
I know plenty of people living in mainland China. Their recover is really not just propaganda. People across the country have been in their homes for months and were quick to cancel all sorts of social events. Speaking frequently with people living there things do seem to have recovered and life is starting to return to normal.

learc83 7y ago

Number of cases is unreliable because of how few tests are being done even in a place like China. However, number of deaths is likely more accurate. Some places like Vietnam, and even Washington state have somehow managed to have a very slow growing number of deaths despite likely having community spread before Italy did.

dear 7y ago

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/despite-official-figures-wuhan-continues-to-find-new-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/despite-official...

eezurr 7y ago

These two videos show how organized and committed China is to containing this virus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehCnbW4FAhg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehCnbW4FAhg Brief: - Your temperature is checked before entering any store/restaurant/tourist attraction/(sometimes) leaving your neighborhood/(sometimes) at a road block. You must scan a QR code so your location is logged. - Restaurant workers and public servants are suited up in light haz mat gear. - Entire neighborhoods have literally been walled off with just one entrance where your temperature must be checked to enter/exit. - Hotels have shut off central air to prevent the spread - Ordering food is touch free - Elevators have tissue paper so there's no direct contact with the buttons - Offices can only reopen once they have a Covid-19 plan, hand sanitizer, gloves, touch free thermometer, masks, etc. Each employee must log how they got to work. - much more in the links

weinzierl 7y ago
The most striking difference is apparently the amount of testing China allegedly does. For lack of a better source scroll down to the graph in the middle here [1]. If anyone has credible data to confirm or deny I'd be interested. [1] https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/corona...

skybrian 7y ago

I don't know, but you should also be wondering why it isn't worse in Japan. There are some obvious ideas like bows instead of handshakes, but it doesn't seem fully explained.

drclau 7y ago

In my opinion, the quarantine just worked. Here's my thinking. We know the following (maybe my information is not entirely correct, but the reasoning is still valid): 1) a host is infectious for about 14d; 2) the virus survives on surfaces/objects for 9d (this is based on other coronaviruses, but a more recent study suggests it's shorter). If you want to stop the spread, or reduce it significantly, you need to quarantine people for at least 2 x 14d + 9d. Why is that? Because, the first infected in each household will stay so for the 14d, and assuming all the other members of the household are infected by the first person, and assuming the infection happens towards the end of the first 14d, for safety, you need another 14d. Plus, you want to make sure the virus is not still active via surfaces/objects, so plus up to 9d. If you go further and assume that not everyone is infected by the first person to have the virus in the household - so you will have multiple generations of infections - then you need to add maybe another 14d. And so on. China did some 2 months of quarantine. Chances are very high they actually succeeded in reducing significantly the number of active cases. No need to appeal to conspiracy theories at this point. Why do we see a resurgence of cases? Because the 14d is just the avg. Some people reportedly can be sick for longer, many can be sick without having serious symptoms, some people don't respect fully the quarantine etc. Because of this, stopping it permanently is going to be very difficult via quarantine alone.

pelario 7y ago

Shangai was in full lock down when there were less than a hundred confirmed cases. This is far more drastic than what any western country have done. If you are skeptic about China's data (which is a fair objection), you can also look at the Japan process.

guugftg45664 7y ago

People are very determined and cooperative. My parents are in China, basically after 2,3 days since it began it’s all over the news and people got serious about it. My hometown, which is a small city in southern China, people are very cooperative and literally do not go outside as soon as the news broke out. I was also chatting with my parents daily as well to ensure they were at home. I wouldn’t trust the numbers completely as well but I think at least the curve makes sense.

YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago

According to the article, China has instituted "one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen": By contrast, three weeks after the first known case of the disease now known as COVID-19, China had notified the WHO of a spike in cases of a pneumonia-like disease. Two weeks after that, the coronavirus had been isolated, genetically sequenced, and a diagnostic test developed, giving China the tools it needed to launch one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen. If "one of the greatest infectious-disease containment efforts the world has ever seen" has not resulted in contaiment and the virus has continued spreading, as your comment suggests, we will soon find out -and in a very unpleasant manner. Or, to not put too fine a point on it: in that case we're in deep shit.

dear 7y ago
That is exactly how the world got into this situation in the first place. China covered it up and basically said nothing to see there. And the world believed in them and didn't put on guard against them. Until the disease spread to other countries and they no longer could cover it up. Then they say "hey look you have it too!"

wuschel 7y ago

As far as I know, the way how cases were counted changed three times since the beginning of the pandemic in China. However, I have no idea about the accuracy of their measurements or degree of correct reporting.