3 ms·

I don't mean this in a disparaging way. I took a look at the list of authors and my first thought was "A bunch of physicists without a clue". There is a massi

I don't mean this in a disparaging way. I took a look at the list of authors and my first thought was "A bunch of physicists without a clue". There is a massive difference between bolting a bunch of parts together to mass manufacturing a reliable life-critical device to deploy to hospitals. We seriously need to stop with these pointless games and throw resources at real proven designs by real companies with experienced multidisciplinary teams. Seriously, I don't know how else to say it. Let me give you an idea of just how stupid it is for a bunch of guys pulling parts out of Home Depot to decide they are going to make a ventilator for mass manufacturing: Elon Musk decided to make ventilators at SpaceX. I've done work there. I know exactly what capabilities exist at Hawthorne. Let's just say that, compared to Home Depot, it's a universe apart. Did he go off to invent them from scratch? No, they had high level engineering meetings with Medtronic. His opinion is summarized in one comment and one action. First, among other things, he said, "Impressive team". Next, he bought 1,200 ventilators from China and brought them into the US. He also recognized you can't Superman ventilators. Not that simple. Not if you want to keep people alive. Not if you want to get them to market when needed. There are consequences for allowing our industrial base (I include Europe) to erode to such an extent that we depend on China for just about everything. Here's the perfect storm that is going to show us just how stupid our political class has been for the last 50 years. And somehow everyone is angry at Trump. Medtronic can't scale their ventilator manufacturing because the imbeciles going back decades before him were incompetent political actors who only cared about their own careers and political goals rather than the interests and needs of a nation. Now we get to pay for it. Superman does not exist. We might just have to face a reality that will be cruel punishment for our failings. I hope we learn something by the time this is over.

riskneutral 7y ago
> Here's the perfect storm that is going to show us just how stupid our political class has been for the last 50 years. Doubtful. Once all this blows over the older patterns will resume.
- robomartin 7y ago
  I hope not. I hope people learned a lesson. What an expensive lesson to learn. For what? To be able to buy cheap shit at Walmart? Brilliant.
- a9h74j 7y ago
  Known supply-chain vulnerability hasn't transformed the US defense industry. Search "report on us defense supply chain vulnerability"
cozzyd 7y ago
This design is hardly from scratch; it's based on a simple old design from the 1950's with components chosen for availability. I have no idea what the relative shortcomings of the old designs are, but nobody is trying to design a "modern" ventilator here (except maybe Elon Musk?). I agree that it is very risky to put something like this out there without sufficient testing, and I'm not sure if it's a good idea or not, but the likely alternative to the improvised ventilator may be no ventilator. Complaining about globalization is certainly not likely to help. Anyway, I'm not sure the location of Medtronic's factories is that important. Most likely mass-manufacturability and high-availability of components was not a important design driver if it was intended as a high-value low-volume device.
- robomartin 7y ago
  The issue isn't that this is based on a design from the '50's (whatever that might mean in practice). There's a massive difference between throwing a bench prototype together and making thousands of repeatable and reliable copies of the same device. For example, how do you guarantee it will work reliably 24/7 for weeks on end without changing settings, breaking down or killing someone? I can find the blueprints for the engine in a 1967 Ford Mustang and machine one from scratch and probably make it work. From there to making tens of thousands of copies of that same engine it's a different matter. It's a million times harder if I have to ensure a certain level of reliability, smoothness, wear rate and longevity. And we are not even talking about a critical life support device. Regarding globalization and the supply chain. Believe it or not, we almost can't build anything in the US or Europe without Chinese components. This spans almost anything you can think of, from wires to chips and displays. The displays are a good example. On a good day lead times for displays and related components range from, depending on what you are buying, 8 to 20 weeks. This is for stock product. If, on the other hand, you are using a custom display in your product, perhaps one with custom indicators, lead times can easily double. We don't make ANY of that stuff in the US or Europe. And most displays are sole source. So, if you, all of a sudden, need to make 100,000 more units of something immediately --within two to four weeks-- it is about as close to impossible as you can get and truly impossible without supernatural intervention. Having a local supply chain may not necessarily modify that, yet it would provide you with far more control. Extend that concept to almost every single component in a machine and the problem we have should become very evident. All the eggs were in one basket.

riskneutral 7y ago

> Here's the perfect storm that is going to show us just how stupid our political class has been for the last 50 years. Doubtful. Once all this blows over the older patterns will resume.

robomartin 7y ago
I hope not. I hope people learned a lesson. What an expensive lesson to learn. For what? To be able to buy cheap shit at Walmart? Brilliant.
a9h74j 7y ago
Known supply-chain vulnerability hasn't transformed the US defense industry. Search "report on us defense supply chain vulnerability"

cozzyd 7y ago

This design is hardly from scratch; it's based on a simple old design from the 1950's with components chosen for availability. I have no idea what the relative shortcomings of the old designs are, but nobody is trying to design a "modern" ventilator here (except maybe Elon Musk?). I agree that it is very risky to put something like this out there without sufficient testing, and I'm not sure if it's a good idea or not, but the likely alternative to the improvised ventilator may be no ventilator. Complaining about globalization is certainly not likely to help. Anyway, I'm not sure the location of Medtronic's factories is that important. Most likely mass-manufacturability and high-availability of components was not a important design driver if it was intended as a high-value low-volume device.

robomartin 7y ago
The issue isn't that this is based on a design from the '50's (whatever that might mean in practice). There's a massive difference between throwing a bench prototype together and making thousands of repeatable and reliable copies of the same device. For example, how do you guarantee it will work reliably 24/7 for weeks on end without changing settings, breaking down or killing someone? I can find the blueprints for the engine in a 1967 Ford Mustang and machine one from scratch and probably make it work. From there to making tens of thousands of copies of that same engine it's a different matter. It's a million times harder if I have to ensure a certain level of reliability, smoothness, wear rate and longevity. And we are not even talking about a critical life support device. Regarding globalization and the supply chain. Believe it or not, we almost can't build anything in the US or Europe without Chinese components. This spans almost anything you can think of, from wires to chips and displays. The displays are a good example. On a good day lead times for displays and related components range from, depending on what you are buying, 8 to 20 weeks. This is for stock product. If, on the other hand, you are using a custom display in your product, perhaps one with custom indicators, lead times can easily double. We don't make ANY of that stuff in the US or Europe. And most displays are sole source. So, if you, all of a sudden, need to make 100,000 more units of something immediately --within two to four weeks-- it is about as close to impossible as you can get and truly impossible without supernatural intervention. Having a local supply chain may not necessarily modify that, yet it would provide you with far more control. Extend that concept to almost every single component in a machine and the problem we have should become very evident. All the eggs were in one basket.