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Sure, there's a sizable denominator problem. That people misunderstand what CFR is is a problem, too. If we want to know how lethal the virus is, we need sampl
by mercutio2 7y ago
Sure, there's a sizable denominator problem. That people misunderstand what CFR is is a problem, too.
If we want to know how lethal the virus is, we need sampling of who actually has contracted it, which is tough in the early stages of a pandemic.
- jMyles 7y ago> If we want to know how lethal the virus is, we need sampling of who actually has contracted it, which is tough in the early stages of a pandemic. But several studies have done the best job possible, given different pieces of the dataset, to arrive at a more accurate IFR (see the links in the above content). I haven't seen anybody, in any published paper, defend the 3.4% as a likely indicator of the actual fatality rate. So why are we still crafting policy as if this virus is between 10 and 100 times more deadly than it actually appears to be, according to the best data available today?
- mennis16 7y agoBecause it becomes 10x or so more deadly when proper care is not available, as is happening in areas where too many people have it at once. Letting this run wild would cripple hospitals. Many NYC area hospitals are already out of ventilators and that situation is just ramping up.
- jMyles 7y ago> Because it becomes 10x or so more deadly when proper care is not available Source? > Many NYC area hospitals are already out of ventilators I don't think that's true. The governor predicted it last week, but it hasn't happened yet, right? I can't find evidence of this happening in any hospital, much less many hospitals.