Say it's 1% and doubles every 3 days, that's 7 doublings away from over capacity or 21 days or 3 weeks time. Keep in mind bed to patient distribution is non uni

Say it's 1% and doubles every 3 days, that's 7 doublings away from over capacity or 21 days or 3 weeks time. Keep in mind bed to patient distribution is non uniform so we'll see shortage before then. Lockdowns take 12 days or so to see effect (from what Italy is seeing). So really, we have about 9 days to do a national lockdown.