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What an awful title. "Lifelong debunker": Persi Diaconis, an interesting chap who used to be a professional magician but turned to mathematics and is now a pro
by gjm11 16y ago
What an awful title.
"Lifelong debunker": Persi Diaconis, an interesting chap who used to be a professional magician but turned to mathematics and is now a professor at Stanford. (His best-known work is on the statistics of riffle-shuffles: how many such shuffles do you need to do to make your pack of cards "random enough"?)
"Arbiter of neutral choices": a coin-toss.
What the title actually means: Diaconis is doing some work on the behaviour of coin-tosses; he has a simplified model of coin-tossing that suggests that there should be a small bias in favour of having the coin land the same way up as it started; he's doing (or, rather, getting some other people to do) some experimental work aimed at tuning the model on the basis of high-speed video footage of real coin tosses.
And, er, the story ends there: he isn't finished yet. But supposedly it's looking as if there might be a 51:49 bias. That would be large enough to be of some practical interest -- though maybe not very much since, as the article mentions, a skilled coin tosser can make them come up quite reliably whichever way s/he chooses.
- bfung 16y agoThe background story is that he was trying to beat the odds from being cheated at a casino using shaved dice; the presumption that dice not even on all sides would land more favorably one way than five others. This was before his foray into statistics. After he went into statistics, he discovered that millimeters shaved off a complex shape landing on a rough surface was something very hard to account for. A more simple problem was coin tosses. The first thing that popped in my head was that if the coin tossed was to hit a "rough" surface on the ground, all bets are off again. The article doesn't specify is the experiment was tossing a coin and catching it (which I myself can reliably toss and bias it to the side i want, catching it in my hand, w/o using stats to prove it), or if the coin was to land on a surface of some sort.