7 ms·

If you want to come out of a lock-down without also causing the number of cases to spike again, we'll need to implement a widespread test-and-trace protocol sim

by jude- 7y ago

If you want to come out of a lock-down without also causing the number of cases to spike again, we'll need to implement a widespread test-and-trace protocol similar to South Korea's. This requires _lots and lots_ of testing.

mbreese 7y ago
If you want to come out of lock-down, you really need a different test... you need a serological antibody test to tell if you've been exposed to the novel coronavirus (and thus have immunity from re-infection [0]). The current test can only tell you if you have an active infection. But before we can really open things up again, we'll need to know who is still at risk, and that requires the antibody test. There has been good progress in getting these tests to work, but it's not quite ready for prime-time. And it will still be quite a while before we have a vaccine which is the ultimate goal. [0] (assuming you can't be re-infected)
- SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
  I mean, you're not wrong, if we can test for anti-bodies we can get a better handle on this whole thing in 3 months, especially given the reportedly high occurrence of mild or asymptomatic individuals. That'll give a sense of where we are in total. But no way are we waiting for herd immunity before the restrictions start to loosen. We very much still need to be able to test for people that currently have it - we're kind of starting from zero every time people come out of lock-down, so we need to test for outbreaks before they happen.
munk-a 7y ago
It also requires population participation in testing and that requires making the tests accessible including providing them for free or cheap[1] and without judgement[2]. 1. This is currently not the case, Payers have widely agreed not to charge co-pays for tests, but deductibles may still apply and the uninsured will pay the full cost. 2. Hey Trump Administration - you know how you've eroded all the trust and faith of the immigrant community? Yea, that's not so great suddenly (I mean it wasn't great before, but now it'll effect you!). Even legal immigrants have expressed concerns over the census, the chances they'll go to a testing site where there will be LEOs (police certainly, maybe national guard) are slim to none.
jopsen 7y ago
It's not entirely clear that some politicians aren't contemplating ending the lockdown and accepting the casualties. It seems crazy when you run the numbers.

by jude- 7y ago

mbreese 7y ago

If you want to come out of lock-down, you really need a different test... you need a serological antibody test to tell if you've been exposed to the novel coronavirus (and thus have immunity from re-infection [0]). The current test can only tell you if you have an active infection. But before we can really open things up again, we'll need to know who is still at risk, and that requires the antibody test. There has been good progress in getting these tests to work, but it's not quite ready for prime-time. And it will still be quite a while before we have a vaccine which is the ultimate goal. [0] (assuming you can't be re-infected)

SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
I mean, you're not wrong, if we can test for anti-bodies we can get a better handle on this whole thing in 3 months, especially given the reportedly high occurrence of mild or asymptomatic individuals. That'll give a sense of where we are in total. But no way are we waiting for herd immunity before the restrictions start to loosen. We very much still need to be able to test for people that currently have it - we're kind of starting from zero every time people come out of lock-down, so we need to test for outbreaks before they happen.

munk-a 7y ago

It also requires population participation in testing and that requires making the tests accessible including providing them for free or cheap[1] and without judgement[2]. 1. This is currently not the case, Payers have widely agreed not to charge co-pays for tests, but deductibles may still apply and the uninsured will pay the full cost. 2. Hey Trump Administration - you know how you've eroded all the trust and faith of the immigrant community? Yea, that's not so great suddenly (I mean it wasn't great before, but now it'll effect you!). Even legal immigrants have expressed concerns over the census, the chances they'll go to a testing site where there will be LEOs (police certainly, maybe national guard) are slim to none.

jopsen 7y ago

It's not entirely clear that some politicians aren't contemplating ending the lockdown and accepting the casualties. It seems crazy when you run the numbers.