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Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of p

Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? 2) 3.5 weeks ago the Trump admin promised 1 million tests that week with many more to follow soon thereafter. After all this time they still haven't materialized, so what happened to the million tests? 3) Is there any reliable data on tests given by day, by city or state in the US today? 4) Is there some kind of struggle among different people or agencies in the US government, some wanting more testing and others trying to suppress testing?

MikeAmelung 7y ago
Literally no country has tested 1 million people, let alone millions.
- acqq 7y ago
  > no country has tested 1 million people Well, the country prepared for epidemics just didn't have to test one million people, but still kept it under control: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve-n1167376 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened... They were indeed able to use their tests more efficiently than any other country, and to really do a lot of tests compared to any other country: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366633&tag=&nPage=1 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00... 348,582 tests up to now.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    Yes, they appear to have done a phenomenal job. Hopefully the rest of the world can learn from some of the things they've done.
    - chasd00 7y ago
      that's the important thing, take what worked, learn from it, and don't make the same mistakes again.
  - rstupek 7y ago
    Wouldn't it also help that South Korea is 1/7th the size of Texas so it's a little easier to test everyone? It also helped one company mass produced tests
    - acqq 7y ago
      It's about priorities. The US spends 15 times more money for military than South Korea but is still not able to comparably protect itself from a single epidemics. Instead, the U.S. citizens get what I've cited in another message here: "It will magically go away." I wouldn't be so angry if that attitude haven't been contagious -- a lot of leaders of the U.S. NATO partners simply "followed the leader" and continued to sell similar story to their own countries. Now the whole world is where it is.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
    - mcculley 7y ago
      The US benefits from economies of scale. We just choose not to implement public health infrastructure.
    - rovolo 7y ago
      South Korea has twice the population of Texas (51.7M vs 19M). Alaska is twice as big as Texas, is it harder to test everyone in Alaska than Texas?
acqq 7y ago
The context matters: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-th... "Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference." "Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders." "Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C." Let's face the truth: that was the main problem.
- downerending 7y ago
  FDA, CDC, etc., are a massive bureaucratic flywheel, and pay little attention to whoever is in the Whitehouse. I'm not sure I'm a fan of Trump's messaging, but I'm under no illusion that it made any difference at all in this.
  - pnw_hazor 7y ago
    SK reformed their pandemic response in 2014-2015, the rest of most developed countries left their old plans in place. I am amazed that anyone expected the CDC, FDA, or other Fed, state, local public health bureaucracies to spring into action doing the best right thing. They are government bureaucracies that historically bumble around, waste resources, act slowly, are led by career bureaucrats, and so on. Just like other large bureaucratic organizations, expecting them to work in times of crisis is unrealistic. The CDC and FDA had a plan in place -- developed long before Trump took over, they executed that plan. Unsurprisingly, the plan under produced and came in behind schedule, like many government programs. It is unrealistic to think anything else would have happened. We have all witnessed government agencies big and small completely drop the ball when it counts. This time is no different.
- eric_cc 7y ago
  Wait are you really blaming Trump because he made stupid comments?
yodsanklai 7y ago
> Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? Many (most?) countries do have a problem testing people. It's not just the US. I imagine the whole world is competing on some scare resources now and most countries are simply unable to produce millions of these tests (and even masks apparently) in a short time.
- vkou 7y ago
  The problem is not lack of raw resources, the problem is lack of manufacturing capacity. We had a 2 month lead-up time to get that capacity in place, and we didn't lift a finger.
  - jimhefferon 7y ago
    The US leadership has been deniers of science, and of reality, for quite a long time. Decades. I know that HN tries to shy away from politics, but this shows that politics has a way of intruding into even the most technical of areas. Large parts of the US seem to be willing to vote for folks who are not reality-based, and it is a problem for making progress.
    - 8ytecoder 7y ago
      A lot of the other comments even right now are also deflecting from the topic being discussed - "what good does it do?". It shows how much HN doesn't even want to criticize this particular issue about the government. It's a root cause analysis and anyone who's been on call knows that if you want to avoid repeating this issue again, you have to keep notes/metrics/data while still working on fixing the issue. This is going to drive future pandemic prevention and response. We better get this right. The death rate and demographic impact of this virus means humanity is not going to be wiped out. The next one could be more severe.
pwinnski 7y ago
1) The FDA requires the CDC to produce tests. The CDC chose to make their own. 2) The Trump admin lies. A lot.
8ytecoder 7y ago
According to this[1] about ~350k tests have been administered as of today. [1] https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
IggleSniggle 7y ago
The CDC is still instructing healthcare providers NOT to test UNLESS a person has either come into contact with a known COVID-19 carrier OR recently traveled abroad. Otherwise, the guideline is "do not test." I am married to a healthcare provider. Nevermind clinical judgement, context, or an abundance of available tests. If you don't meet the above guidelines, my spouse is being firmly instructed to follow the CDC guideline: do not test.
- forgotmylogin2 7y ago
  Probably because there is a shortage of tests, so they want to save the tests for people who are most likely to have contracted the virus. Can you design a test for this virus that scales out to over a million people in two months? If so, you should start working on that.
- IggleSniggle 7y ago
  My spouse was being fed outdated information. Latest testing guideline is here: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00429.asp https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00429.asp

MikeAmelung 7y ago

Literally no country has tested 1 million people, let alone millions.

acqq 7y ago
> no country has tested 1 million people Well, the country prepared for epidemics just didn't have to test one million people, but still kept it under control: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve-n1167376 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened... They were indeed able to use their tests more efficiently than any other country, and to really do a lot of tests compared to any other country: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366633&tag=&nPage=1 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00... 348,582 tests up to now.
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  Yes, they appear to have done a phenomenal job. Hopefully the rest of the world can learn from some of the things they've done.
  - chasd00 7y ago
    that's the important thing, take what worked, learn from it, and don't make the same mistakes again.
- rstupek 7y ago
  Wouldn't it also help that South Korea is 1/7th the size of Texas so it's a little easier to test everyone? It also helped one company mass produced tests
  - acqq 7y ago
    It's about priorities. The US spends 15 times more money for military than South Korea but is still not able to comparably protect itself from a single epidemics. Instead, the U.S. citizens get what I've cited in another message here: "It will magically go away." I wouldn't be so angry if that attitude haven't been contagious -- a lot of leaders of the U.S. NATO partners simply "followed the leader" and continued to sell similar story to their own countries. Now the whole world is where it is.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - mcculley 7y ago
    The US benefits from economies of scale. We just choose not to implement public health infrastructure.
  - rovolo 7y ago
    South Korea has twice the population of Texas (51.7M vs 19M). Alaska is twice as big as Texas, is it harder to test everyone in Alaska than Texas?

acqq 7y ago

The context matters: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-th... "Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference." "Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders." "Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C." Let's face the truth: that was the main problem.

downerending 7y ago
FDA, CDC, etc., are a massive bureaucratic flywheel, and pay little attention to whoever is in the Whitehouse. I'm not sure I'm a fan of Trump's messaging, but I'm under no illusion that it made any difference at all in this.
- pnw_hazor 7y ago
  SK reformed their pandemic response in 2014-2015, the rest of most developed countries left their old plans in place. I am amazed that anyone expected the CDC, FDA, or other Fed, state, local public health bureaucracies to spring into action doing the best right thing. They are government bureaucracies that historically bumble around, waste resources, act slowly, are led by career bureaucrats, and so on. Just like other large bureaucratic organizations, expecting them to work in times of crisis is unrealistic. The CDC and FDA had a plan in place -- developed long before Trump took over, they executed that plan. Unsurprisingly, the plan under produced and came in behind schedule, like many government programs. It is unrealistic to think anything else would have happened. We have all witnessed government agencies big and small completely drop the ball when it counts. This time is no different.
eric_cc 7y ago
Wait are you really blaming Trump because he made stupid comments?

yodsanklai 7y ago

> Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? Many (most?) countries do have a problem testing people. It's not just the US. I imagine the whole world is competing on some scare resources now and most countries are simply unable to produce millions of these tests (and even masks apparently) in a short time.

vkou 7y ago
The problem is not lack of raw resources, the problem is lack of manufacturing capacity. We had a 2 month lead-up time to get that capacity in place, and we didn't lift a finger.
- jimhefferon 7y ago
  The US leadership has been deniers of science, and of reality, for quite a long time. Decades. I know that HN tries to shy away from politics, but this shows that politics has a way of intruding into even the most technical of areas. Large parts of the US seem to be willing to vote for folks who are not reality-based, and it is a problem for making progress.
  - 8ytecoder 7y ago
    A lot of the other comments even right now are also deflecting from the topic being discussed - "what good does it do?". It shows how much HN doesn't even want to criticize this particular issue about the government. It's a root cause analysis and anyone who's been on call knows that if you want to avoid repeating this issue again, you have to keep notes/metrics/data while still working on fixing the issue. This is going to drive future pandemic prevention and response. We better get this right. The death rate and demographic impact of this virus means humanity is not going to be wiped out. The next one could be more severe.

pwinnski 7y ago

1) The FDA requires the CDC to produce tests. The CDC chose to make their own. 2) The Trump admin lies. A lot.

8ytecoder 7y ago

According to this[1] about ~350k tests have been administered as of today. [1] https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

IggleSniggle 7y ago

The CDC is still instructing healthcare providers NOT to test UNLESS a person has either come into contact with a known COVID-19 carrier OR recently traveled abroad. Otherwise, the guideline is "do not test." I am married to a healthcare provider. Nevermind clinical judgement, context, or an abundance of available tests. If you don't meet the above guidelines, my spouse is being firmly instructed to follow the CDC guideline: do not test.

forgotmylogin2 7y ago
Probably because there is a shortage of tests, so they want to save the tests for people who are most likely to have contracted the virus. Can you design a test for this virus that scales out to over a million people in two months? If so, you should start working on that.
IggleSniggle 7y ago
My spouse was being fed outdated information. Latest testing guideline is here: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00429.asp https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00429.asp