2 ms·
Link to the actual study: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COV
by larksimian 7y ago
Link to the actual study: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Mod...
The title is massive clickbait. The study models various possible parameters for the disease and fits them to UK and Italian cases to try and infer a mortality rate.
We already have a very solid mortality rate estimate from South Korea(0.6%), where they likely managed to test everyone that actually had the virus.
If that's the 'true' mortality rate, then the UK can expect 5-10% of the population to have the virus now(according to this model, which is bad).