3 ms·
> Just look how it's impacting the local health care system. If it exceeds the capacity by X % that's how big a problem it is. Ok, let's look. There are 1175 s
by kajumix 7y ago
> Just look how it's impacting the local health care system. If it exceeds the capacity by X % that's how big a problem it is.
Ok, let's look. There are 1175 serious/critical cases in the US [0]. I assume all of them are hospitalized, and mild cases are asked to stay home. There are 900k plus total hospital beds in the US, and 132K ICU beds [1], resulting in the current COVID demand from hospitals to be between 0.1% to 1% depending on how many of them need ICU beds. What am I missing? Before I am accused of not understanding exponentiation, I am all for prepping, but much alarm is about how we are already running out of capacity.
[0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
[1] https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
- omikun 7y agoSay it's 1% and doubles every 3 days, that's 7 doublings away from over capacity or 21 days or 3 weeks time. Keep in mind bed to patient distribution is non uniform so we'll see shortage before then. Lockdowns take 12 days or so to see effect (from what Italy is seeing). So really, we have about 9 days to do a national lockdown.