4 ms·
It's bullshit anyway, we're seeing "a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S" because there was a very large increase in testing
by derision 7y ago
It's bullshit anyway, we're seeing "a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S" because there was a very large increase in testing
- tunesmith 7y agoI don't like those "days since 100 cases" graphs either, with the steep slope for the US (for growth of confirmed cases). I'm betting that our "actual/confirmed" ratio at that point of 100 confirmed cases was ridiculously high compared to other countries.
- nerfhammer 7y agothe death count is also accelerating and is not subject to that effect
- Jagat 7y agoIf you don't test someone for coronavirus prior to the death (or even after), it doesn't get attributed to coronavirus
- jedberg 7y agoThere is also a reverse problem. Some people are dying of heart attacks and are testing positive COVID-19, and are being counted even though it's unlikely the COVID-19 had anything to do with it.
- uwuhn 7y agoEasily fixable if you stop testing, or officially attribute death to something else.
- dhimes 7y agoAs we run short on tests it's likely that only the bad off will get tested.
- danharaj 7y agoLook at hospitalizations, not confirmed cases. NY state is projecting a peak in 2 weeks with rather effective social distancing and lockdown measures and the peak will still overwhelm ICU's and # of hospital beds. States that aren't taking this seriously will see a much larger peak later and won't have the medical resources NYS has.
- derision 7y agoOhio has the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals which are some of the best hospitals in the country, if not the world. Social distancing and shelter in place has been extremely effective here. A nurse that I know said the hospital he works in currently has no coronavirus cases in ICU. I think in some places where population density is extremely high this will continue to be a huge issue, but in many other places (I'm in the Cleveland area) I think things are already close to the peak
- danharaj 7y agoOhio had a very good response too! https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/03/compare-coronavirus-cases-in-ohio-michigan.html https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/03/compare-coronavirus-c... When dealing with exponential functions, linear increases in effort early on lead to extremely large differences in outcomes later on. Our intuition is not very well equipped to understand this sort of situation.
- dhimes 7y agoI don't see an effect due to increased testing- not a large one anyway. Doubling time is still a bit over 2 days, and has been for 10 days or so.
- cdumler 7y ago> It's bullshit anyway, we're seeing "a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S" because there was a very large increase in testing This is bullshit. I can tell you that here in Kansas and Missouri they have given up on testing. You can only be tested if you present symptoms such that you require hospitalization and a doctor approves the test. Health care workers are told to self-quarantine if they think they are infected for seven days, but do not get the test. Yeah, should be 14 days, but we can't afford to loose people. We are critically low on testing kits and protective gear such that CORVID is now considered community communicable and no point to test unless necessary. Kansas City has gone into lock down. We've moved to telemedicine, stopped elective surgeries, closed schools and non essential business.