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I try to imagine the counter-scenario where leaders had done the correct thing but because they did the right thing and a spread never occurred we collectively

I try to imagine the counter-scenario where leaders had done the correct thing but because they did the right thing and a spread never occurred we collectively boot them out of office because nothing bad happened and criticize them for 'overreacting' when that is exactly what is needed for a pandemic. I am sympathetic to why nothing changed and no one listened. good risk management shows up as nothing bad happening. Heroes who avert disaster don’t get statues.

nocorpwelfare 7y ago
Look, the US and everywhere is more interested in financializing everything, leveraging and doing all kinds of other stupid shit in order to make money without actually producing anything. So this is what you get. Want strong civil defense? Look at Switzerland.
deleted 7y ago
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mistermann 7y ago
Very good point. Most people do not include counter-factuals in their thought process. I would go further and propose that not only do most people not even know what counter-factuals are, but many of them would be extremely psychologically resistant to the very idea. A similar example of this is: go into a forum, find someone who is predicting the future, point out to them that they are predicting the future, and observe the result. Now do this 100 or 1000 times and keep track of your results. "But this is just people being stupid!" I disagree. Yes, it is indeed people being stupid....but is it "just" that?
tome 7y ago
That scenario would only come true if every leader did the correct thing. In the more likely scenario where some did and some didn't, the ones who did would say "It might seem at first sight that we overreacted, but look at country X. They didn't act and all their citizens are dying and the economy crumbling."
siwatanejo 7y ago
This is why good security professionals are never promoted: if they do their job well, nobody notices.
- nojvek 7y ago
  Or may be they do because they say “look competitor X just got pwned and is bleeding customers which are coming to us”.
dfxm12 7y ago
We saw what happened in China and then Italy. Nothing bad happening would not have gone unnoticed. Plus, the idea that our elected officials let people die in some sort of racket to prove their use is more reason to boot them out of office than a peaceful term.

nocorpwelfare 7y ago

Look, the US and everywhere is more interested in financializing everything, leveraging and doing all kinds of other stupid shit in order to make money without actually producing anything. So this is what you get. Want strong civil defense? Look at Switzerland.

deleted 7y ago

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mistermann 7y ago

Very good point. Most people do not include counter-factuals in their thought process. I would go further and propose that not only do most people not even know what counter-factuals are, but many of them would be extremely psychologically resistant to the very idea. A similar example of this is: go into a forum, find someone who is predicting the future, point out to them that they are predicting the future, and observe the result. Now do this 100 or 1000 times and keep track of your results. "But this is just people being stupid!" I disagree. Yes, it is indeed people being stupid....but is it "just" that?

tome 7y ago

That scenario would only come true if every leader did the correct thing. In the more likely scenario where some did and some didn't, the ones who did would say "It might seem at first sight that we overreacted, but look at country X. They didn't act and all their citizens are dying and the economy crumbling."

siwatanejo 7y ago

This is why good security professionals are never promoted: if they do their job well, nobody notices.

nojvek 7y ago
Or may be they do because they say “look competitor X just got pwned and is bleeding customers which are coming to us”.

dfxm12 7y ago

We saw what happened in China and then Italy. Nothing bad happening would not have gone unnoticed. Plus, the idea that our elected officials let people die in some sort of racket to prove their use is more reason to boot them out of office than a peaceful term.