10 ms·

Italy’s Covid-19 deaths are staggering. They may be more preview than anomaly

28 points by dmitriy_ko 7y ago

nabla9 7y ago
It seems that the US is on the the path of no mitigation approach https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22populationServed%22%3A330000000%2C%22country%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22hospitalBeds%22%3A1485000%2C%22ICUBeds%22%3A49499%2C%22suspectedCasesToday%22%3A6638%2C%22importsPerDay%22%3A20%2C%22cases%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%7D%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%7B%22r0%22%3A3.2%2C%22incubationTime%22%3A4%2C%22infectiousPeriod%22%3A3%2C%22lengthHospitalStay%22%3A4%2C%22lengthICUStay%22%3A14%2C%22seasonalForcing%22%3A0.2%2C%22peakMonth%22%3A6%2C%22overflowSeverity%22%3A2%7D%2C%22simulation%22%3A%7B%22simulationTimeRange%22%3A%7B%22tMin%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22tMax%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%22numberStochasticRuns%22%3A0%7D%2C%22containment%22%3A%5B%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-04-17T04%3A33%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-06-03T11%3A06%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-07-20T17%3A40%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-09-06T00%3A13%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-10-23T06%3A46%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-12-09T13%3A20%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-01-25T19%3A53%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-03-14T02%3A26%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%5D%2C%22current%22%3A%7B%22overall%22%3A%22Custom%22%2C%22population%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%22Fast%2FSouth%22%2C%22containment%22%3A%22No%20mitigation%22%7D%7D https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22po...
- anonsubmit2671 7y ago
  You don't know what you're talking about. Not even close. The H0 is now well below 1.0 in the most populous states. Stop fear-mongering. What's happening is severe cases are being identified but new cases in the future (would've be two weeks from now) aren't happening at nearly the same rates. The extreme shutdowns take time to resolve existing cases and for transmission to die out to almost nothing. Paraphrasing Bill Gates speaking to Chris Anderson: testing needs to be comprehensive and enduring shutdowns long enough to work is the prescription for losing control.
  - new_realist 7y ago
    Source for the H0 stats?
- biolurker1 7y ago
  Yes emerging victorious. Tremendous victory against the virus and money printing as bonus!
Arnt 7y ago
Aftenposten (a Norwegian broadsheet) published an opinion piece today arguing that the high number of deaths is partly due to the multiresistant bacteria that are endemic to many Italian hospitals. Abbreviating: Italy has 11k deaths per year due to multiresistent bacteria. Severe pneumonia often/usually features secondary infections that need antibiotics. A large wave of pneumonia, particularly a form with which the hospitals have little experience, offers those multiresistant bacteria a Great Chance.
- scotty79 7y ago
  Does Italy have greater seasonal flu mortality than other countries?
  - toss1 7y ago
    Good question, I don't know about seasonal flu, but here's data a few calcs on this pandemic: According to Johns Hopkins tracking site now (2020-March-23 4:00 PM EDT) (1) Global deaths = 18,557 / cases = 414,227: rate calculates to: 4.47% Italy deaths = 6,820 / cases = 69,176: rate calculates to: 9.85% USA deaths = 674 / cases = 51,542: rate calculates to: 1.3% Beyond the obvious shortcomings and inconsistencies of testing in counting the cases, another strong caveat in counting the deaths in a rapidly developing situation is the lag - e.g., the USA is a few weeks behind Italy on the curve, and it takes time for the disease to kill (i.e., we don't know how many US cases are doomed and will be counted as deaths in a few days) (1) https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
    - scotty79 7y ago
      I think most mortality rates of covid are pure speculation right now because we use confirmed cases as denominator and in most cases we have no idea how confirmed cases relate to true number of infections.
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    I've seen stats in other threads (cuz HN is about 80% COVID threads these days) that implied that the Italian population was about 22% elderly, which is on the higher end. Compare that to about 11-13% in China, or about 17% in Canada. That also meant they had, even during "normal" times, higher rates of fatalities from the Flu and extreme temperatures e.g. heatwaves killing elderly people with no AC or mobility, freezing in blizzards, etc.. See also: https://data.oecd.org/pop/elderly-population.htm https://data.oecd.org/pop/elderly-population.htm

28 points by dmitriy_ko 7y ago

It seems that the US is on the the path of no mitigation approach https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22populationServed%22%3A330000000%2C%22country%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22hospitalBeds%22%3A1485000%2C%22ICUBeds%22%3A49499%2C%22suspectedCasesToday%22%3A6638%2C%22importsPerDay%22%3A20%2C%22cases%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%7D%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%7B%22r0%22%3A3.2%2C%22incubationTime%22%3A4%2C%22infectiousPeriod%22%3A3%2C%22lengthHospitalStay%22%3A4%2C%22lengthICUStay%22%3A14%2C%22seasonalForcing%22%3A0.2%2C%22peakMonth%22%3A6%2C%22overflowSeverity%22%3A2%7D%2C%22simulation%22%3A%7B%22simulationTimeRange%22%3A%7B%22tMin%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22tMax%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%22numberStochasticRuns%22%3A0%7D%2C%22containment%22%3A%5B%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-04-17T04%3A33%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-06-03T11%3A06%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-07-20T17%3A40%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-09-06T00%3A13%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-10-23T06%3A46%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-12-09T13%3A20%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-01-25T19%3A53%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-03-14T02%3A26%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%5D%2C%22current%22%3A%7B%22overall%22%3A%22Custom%22%2C%22population%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%22Fast%2FSouth%22%2C%22containment%22%3A%22No%20mitigation%22%7D%7D https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22po...

anonsubmit2671 7y ago
You don't know what you're talking about. Not even close. The H0 is now well below 1.0 in the most populous states. Stop fear-mongering. What's happening is severe cases are being identified but new cases in the future (would've be two weeks from now) aren't happening at nearly the same rates. The extreme shutdowns take time to resolve existing cases and for transmission to die out to almost nothing. Paraphrasing Bill Gates speaking to Chris Anderson: testing needs to be comprehensive and enduring shutdowns long enough to work is the prescription for losing control.
- new_realist 7y ago
  Source for the H0 stats?
biolurker1 7y ago
Yes emerging victorious. Tremendous victory against the virus and money printing as bonus!

Arnt 7y ago

Aftenposten (a Norwegian broadsheet) published an opinion piece today arguing that the high number of deaths is partly due to the multiresistant bacteria that are endemic to many Italian hospitals. Abbreviating: Italy has 11k deaths per year due to multiresistent bacteria. Severe pneumonia often/usually features secondary infections that need antibiotics. A large wave of pneumonia, particularly a form with which the hospitals have little experience, offers those multiresistant bacteria a Great Chance.

scotty79 7y ago
Does Italy have greater seasonal flu mortality than other countries?
- toss1 7y ago
  Good question, I don't know about seasonal flu, but here's data a few calcs on this pandemic: According to Johns Hopkins tracking site now (2020-March-23 4:00 PM EDT) (1) Global deaths = 18,557 / cases = 414,227: rate calculates to: 4.47% Italy deaths = 6,820 / cases = 69,176: rate calculates to: 9.85% USA deaths = 674 / cases = 51,542: rate calculates to: 1.3% Beyond the obvious shortcomings and inconsistencies of testing in counting the cases, another strong caveat in counting the deaths in a rapidly developing situation is the lag - e.g., the USA is a few weeks behind Italy on the curve, and it takes time for the disease to kill (i.e., we don't know how many US cases are doomed and will be counted as deaths in a few days) (1) https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
  - scotty79 7y ago
    I think most mortality rates of covid are pure speculation right now because we use confirmed cases as denominator and in most cases we have no idea how confirmed cases relate to true number of infections.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  I've seen stats in other threads (cuz HN is about 80% COVID threads these days) that implied that the Italian population was about 22% elderly, which is on the higher end. Compare that to about 11-13% in China, or about 17% in Canada. That also meant they had, even during "normal" times, higher rates of fatalities from the Flu and extreme temperatures e.g. heatwaves killing elderly people with no AC or mobility, freezing in blizzards, etc.. See also: https://data.oecd.org/pop/elderly-population.htm https://data.oecd.org/pop/elderly-population.htm